The Russians could not stay in Kazakhstan

"This is hell" wrote a citizen of Kazakhstan in a WhatsApp message when the country's authorities considered the critical phase of the "anti-terrorist operation" to be over and had set a deadline for the withdrawal of the "peacekeeping contingent" from the Treaty Organization of Collective Security (OTSC).

In Atirau “torture and imprisonment” were taking place, my interlocutor communicated from that Caspian oil center. This was confirmed by phone by Sergei Shútov, a local civic activist who said he had suffered multiple beatings during the two days he was held, from January 11 to 13, after being arrested at his home. Shútov spoke out on January 4 against the price increase and is one of those who does not trust President Kasim-Yomart Tokáyev to carry out far-reaching reforms. "He will do what Nazarbayev and his family let him do," he said, referring to the first president of Kazakhstan, who led the country until 2019, when he became Elbasi (father of the nation) with supervisory functions in security matters. .

The current president correctly analyzes the evils of the system, but observers are divided on his will and his possibilities of attracting the necessary allies for the reforms he announces.

Tokáyev talks about creating commissions, ordering plans to correct the abysmal disproportions and inequalities in the country, but his words do not sound forceful, because restructuring the system implies confronting Nazarbayev's "family" (the clan of relatives and acquaintances who benefit from public management ).

Tokáyev has been more specific when referring to the changes in the so-called “organs of force”.

There will be salary increases in all of them and “special intervention” units will be created in the Ministry of the Interior, the National Guard and the Army.

The CSTO operation has been effective, but it has also shown that the anti-colonial reflex and national consciousness are sensitive points in this type of intervention and perhaps one of the causes of its rapid withdrawal (a maximum of 10 days from 11 from January). Researcher Nargís Kassenova, director of Central Asia programs at the Harvard Davis Center, points out that the percentage of ethnic Kazakhs, who were 40% of the population of Kazakhstan in December 1991 when the country became independent, is now 70%. This change is due, on the one hand, to the emigration of the inhabitants of Russian origin and, on the other hand, to the immigration of ethnic Kazakhs from China, Mongolia and Central Asia.

A part of the citizenry of Kazakhstan has seen the peacekeeping contingent of the CSTO, an organization dominated by Russia, as "foreign occupiers" and has associated it with the annexation of the Crimean peninsula by Russia in 2014, according to media in Kazakhstan. The association with Crimea was reinforced by the appointment as head of the CSTO contingent of General Andrei Serdiukov, head of Russia's parachute troops and a participant in the annexation of that Ukrainian peninsula. Beyond the intergovernmental agreements that legitimize its intervention, the CSTO's margin to act is therefore affected by the local perception of national sovereignty in relation to Russia. In the title of the speech with which Tokayev addressed Parliament, the words “unity” and “independence” appeared.To consider Russia as a savior in the post-Soviet space, the description of Moscow's goals formulated by the Russian political scientist Fedor Lukyanov, scientific director of the Valdai discussion club (organizer of an annual meeting of Vladimir Putin with international political scientists), does not contribute either. In a recent article, Lukyanov wrote that the most important thing for Moscow in the CSTO's peacekeeping operations is "to maintain the physical presence of force in the territory" to which it has gone on a mission and to become the guarantor on which subsequent events depend. As an example, he cited the Russian peacekeeping mission after the 2020 war in Nagorno-Karabakh.scientific director of the Valdai discussion club (organizer of an annual meeting of Vladimir Putin with international political scientists). In a recent article, Lukyanov wrote that the most important thing for Moscow in the CSTO's peacekeeping operations is "to maintain the physical presence of force in the territory" to which it has gone on a mission and to become the guarantor on which subsequent events depend. As an example, he cited the Russian peacekeeping mission after the 2020 war in Nagorno-Karabakh.scientific director of the Valdai discussion club (organizer of an annual meeting of Vladimir Putin with international political scientists). In a recent article, Lukyanov wrote that the most important thing for Moscow in the CSTO's peacekeeping operations is "to maintain the physical presence of force in the territory" to which it has gone on a mission and to become the guarantor on which subsequent events depend. As an example, he cited the Russian peacekeeping mission after the 2020 war in Nagorno-Karabakh.Lukyanov wrote that the most important thing for Moscow in the CSTO's peacekeeping operations is "to maintain the physical presence of force in the territory" to which it has gone on a mission and to become the guarantor on which subsequent events depend. As an example, he cited the Russian peacekeeping mission after the 2020 war in Nagorno-Karabakh.Lukyanov wrote that the most important thing for Moscow in the CSTO's peacekeeping operations is "to maintain the physical presence of force in the territory" to which it has gone on a mission and to become the guarantor on which subsequent events depend. As an example, he cited the Russian peacekeeping mission after the 2020 war in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Russia, says Lukyanov, must not "meddle in local conflicts" and whoever wins in them "will have to take into account the objective circumstances of the Russian military presence."

In Kazakhstan, for now, the Russians have not been able to stay.

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