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(CNN Spanish) --
The tragedy in Tlahuelilpan, a municipality in the state of Hidalgo, in Mexico, turns three years old this Tuesday.
That January 18, 2019, hundreds of people collected gasoline from a clandestine intake in a hydrocarbon pipeline.
It took only a spark for the pipeline in Tlahuelilpan to explode, leaving 137 people dead, 69 of them at the site of the explosion.
This clandestine takeover, as well as thousands in the country, was a consequence of the crime of fuel theft —also known as "huachicoleo" or "huachicol"—, which has been one of the main focuses of attention of the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
Since its inception in December 2018, the López Obrador government has announced its strategy to combat fuel theft in order to stop a crime that, according to the president of Mexico in 2019, cost the country close to US $ 3,000 million. per year in losses for Pemex.
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After the explosion in Tlahuelilpan, López Obrador indicated that, if there are people who steal fuel, "it is because they were completely abandoned and this means that they have not had the possibility of satisfying their basic needs, because there are millions of poor people in the country."
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Likewise, on repeated occasions at the beginning of his government, the president stressed that this crime occurred "because of relationships of complicity that existed and because of the tolerance of theft, because theft was allowed, because in the best of cases there was omission, but They spent a lot on equipment, not only in the past administration (of Enrique Peña Nieto), in the other administrations we have pending".
With the strategy of the Mexican government underway, how is the "huachicoleo" going in the country?
Here are some figures to paint the current panorama.
Figures on fuel theft in Mexico
what the government says
In January 2020, after a year in power, the López Obrador government indicated that, after the first year of the strategy and based on information from Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), fuel theft was reduced by 91%. , "which represents a saving of 56,000 million pesos in pipelines and 1,900 million pesos in liquefied gas."
Meanwhile, on LP gas, he indicated that "it decreased by 55%, going from 12,000 to 5,300 barrels per day."
Then, in February 2021, and after completing his second year in office, the president of Mexico commented that, during his administration, fuel theft had been reduced by 95%.
"Up to 80,000 barrels of gasoline a day were stolen when we started the government in November, that was the theft that took place, November 18 (although in reality his government began on December 1, 2018). Since it was decided to fight huachicol , was reduced to an average of 4,000 barrels per day; from 80,000 to 4,000 and there it is, we have not been able to finish it," López Obrador said.
In his third government report, which was carried out in September 2021, the Mexican president repeated the figure of 95% on the decrease in fuel theft.
Is it all fuel theft?
Although the López Obrador administration reports a percentage decrease in fuel theft and the number of barrels per day that are lost, no one is clear, not even the government itself or Pemex, what is the exact volume that is taken for fuel theft, according to Gonzalo Monroy, an expert in the energy sector specializing in Mexico and North America.
Why is this happening?
"Because of a form of the methodology that Pemex uses to be able to establish how much fuel is being lost. And it is very simple. They see it from point A: if I am putting in 100 barrels, I will have to obtain 100 barrels at point B. But many things can happen on the way from A to B. In between, there can be fuel theft, there can be leaks, there can be spills. Nobody, not even Pemex itself, knows what the difference is, especially in recent two," Monroy explained to CNN.
For fuel theft, Monroy pointed out, the government identifies a sudden drop in pressure in the pipelines, "which obviously means that at one point or in a segment of the pipelines this illegal tapping is taking place, this milking, simply seizing and hit the pipeline," he stressed.
However, a leak and a spill also cause a sudden drop in pressure and that is where Pemex or the government do not know how to differentiate what was specifically involved, according to the expert.
"How much of that is spills, how much of that is fuel theft, how much of that is leaks? Not even Pemex knows. And there is a substantial difference, because, for example, if it is a theft, eventually there will be some commercialization, even at the foot of the highway, but if it is a spill, the fuel will remain on the ground or (...) if there is any leakage into the ground (in underground pipes), there is no use of any kind," Monroy detailed.
Volume and ducts
Ramses Pech, an energy and economics analyst and adviser, commented that, according to Mexican government figures, it is possible that fuel theft has decreased in terms of volume.
"The strategy (against fuel theft), in terms of volume and based on the data they are giving us, is working because they are not removing the same amount of fuel. But, in terms of the mechanical part of the pipelines , it's not working" because there has been an increase in pipelines cut in some entities, Pech said.
Although it is possible that the losses due to the manipulated pipelines will not have a great impact on Pemex in the short term, the analyst pointed out that in the future it could impact the oil company because the change of pipeline sections is somewhat expensive.
"The more you are drilling a pipeline, the more you are drilling it, its mechanical resistance degrades and that, as a consequence, will lead to a greater rupture in the future (...). This can cause a problem for Pemex , because it will not be able to pump or send both fuels and liquefied petroleum gas because they will have to change a large number of kilometers of pipeline or meters of pipeline to be able to maintain its resistance," Pech said.
Clandestine intake figures
Stating that tapped pipelines —or clandestine taps— have increased in some states in the López Obrador government, Pech referred to data collected by Igavim Observatorio Ciudadano.
Igavim, a civil society organization in Mexico, publishes reports every year on clandestine taps in hydrocarbon pipelines (gasoline, diesel, oil, other derivatives) and LP gas in the country.
The organization makes its reports based on data obtained from Pemex responses to transparency requests.
The numbers of these requests for information are included in each of the reports.
What do the Igavim reports say?
Some relevant numbers are as follows:
At the national level, a decrease of almost 13% in the clandestine seizures of hydrocarbon pipelines in the first year of López Obrador;
but an increase of almost 500% in clandestine intakes of LP gas pipelines in the same period.
The accumulated figure in his first two years of government was a 39% drop in clandestine takeovers of hydrocarbon pipelines throughout the country, going from 14,956 at the end of 2018 to 9,132 at the end of 2020.
However, in that same period of two years of government, the clandestine intakes in LP gas pipelines have increased by 833%, going from 222 at the end of 2018 to 2,071 at the end of 2020. At this point, it is worth noting what López Obrador has said about the omission of data in past governments, which is why low figures could be observed in some sections.
The complete data for 2021 is not yet published by Igavim.
The most recent is from January to September.
During that period, there was a 23% increase in clandestine taps of hydrocarbon pipelines nationwide, compared to January-September 2020. In that same period, clandestine taps of LP gas pipelines increased by just over 14%.
Likewise, it can be seen that the state of Hidalgo, where Tlahuelipan is located, has continued its upward trend in clandestine hydrocarbon intakes.
In 2018 (the last of Peña Nieto), a total of 2,121 clandestine shots were completed;
At the end of 2020 (López Obrador's second year), 4,988 shots were identified.
Therefore, the increase has been 135% for that particular state.
AMLO Huachicoleros Fuel theft