Where does Germany stand in the pandemic?

Created: 01/16/2022, 18:10

In a test center, an employee takes a swab for a rapid corona test.

© Sina Schuldt/dpa

The Omicron variant is causing exploding corona numbers - but experts believe it could also point the way out of the permanent crisis.

But Germany shouldn't take other countries as role models just yet.

Berlin/Hamburg – It is difficult to see through: For the first time, the nationwide seven-day incidence has exceeded the 500 mark, and in some places has even reached values ​​​​over 1500.

At the same time, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) speaks of a “new phase of the pandemic”, in which the pure number of cases faded into the background.

Bavaria's Prime Minister Markus Söder indicates the departure from "Team Caution".

And in many European countries, corona measures are being relaxed.

Where is Germany?

What phase of the pandemic is Germany in right now?

The very contagious Sars-CoV-2 variant Omicron is causing an increase in new corona infections, but tends to be associated with milder courses than its predecessor Delta. "Because of the high incidence, we are currently going through a critical phase," says Hajo Zeeb from the Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology (BIPS) in Bremen. Because of the extreme dynamics, there could be bottlenecks again in many critical places in the coming weeks - both in hospitals and in other care. Health Minister Karl Lauterbach (SPD) also warns of this.

"But there is light at the end of the tunnel," emphasizes Zeeb.

“The current increase will lead to another phase of the pandemic.” Virologist Jonas Schmidt-Chanasit from the University of Hamburg also assumes this.

“In the UK, the omicron wave is collapsing.

This can also be expected in Germany with a little delay.

So far there is no data that would speak against this scenario in Germany.”

When is this apex likely to be reached?

The experts expect high incidences for January and February.

"Based on the data from other countries and our measures in Germany, this wave could be over in a month or two," says Schmidt-Chanasit.

“In addition, from the spring onwards, the strong seasonality of the virus comes into play.

It has a very strong influence on the course of infection - regardless of the virus variant."

How high is the risk of hospital overload until it abates?

Zeeb refers to the federal state of Bremen, which has by far the highest seven-day incidence of the federal states at more than 1400.

"In Bremen, the occupancy of the intensive care units is stable, although the incidence has been increasing for more than a week," he says.

However, the normal wards are very heavily occupied with Covid 19 patients.

"So far we have not seen any overloading of the intensive care units," says Schmidt-Chanasit.

The situation in Bremen, with its high vaccination rate, shows how important vaccinations are to prevent serious illnesses.

However, you have to wait for the next one to two weeks and keep a special eye on the vulnerable population groups - i.e. older people and people with immunodeficiency.

Because of the high numbers, Schmidt-Chanasit advocates prioritizing the tests.

"We should use the limited resources where they are needed most." This included the elderly and facilities such as nursing homes and hospitals, but not PCR tests for young asymptomatic people.

Countries like Spain are considering changing the corona strategy.

Would that also make sense for Germany?

According to Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, experts are working to treat Covid-19 like flu. Instead of testing everyone, samples could be taken and extrapolated as the basis for an early warning system. Sánchez also cited the successful vaccination campaign as a reason for the change of course.

Therefore, according to experts, the model cannot be easily transferred to Germany.

"The basic immunity of the population is crucial - either through the vaccination or a survived infection," says Zeeb.

Spain managed this with its high vaccination rate of around 90 percent, according to the RKI, Germany was around 73 percent with complete basic immunization at the weekend.

"We need to keep building immunity through vaccination, and that may take time," says Zeeb.

The goal of the federal government of 80 percent of first vaccinations by the end of the month is difficult to achieve.

When might a change of strategy be possible in Germany?

Zeeb expects that, depending on the level of immunization of the population, it could be ready by the middle of the year.

The corona virus will spread among the population.

"Sooner or later we will all become infected with Sars-CoV-2," he says.

The virologist Christian Drosten also sees Omikron as a "chance" to get out of crisis mode - provided there is broad immunity.

All people would have to get infected sooner or later.

"Yes, we have to get into this fairway, there is no alternative," he told the "Tagesspiegel am Sonntag".

"The virus has to spread, but on the basis of vaccination protection that is anchored in the general population" - otherwise "too many people would die".

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The more people are immunized through vaccinations or infections, the less likely it is that the healthcare system will be overwhelmed, says Schmidt-Chanasit.

Then the special role of Sars-CoV-2 compared to other infectious diseases is no longer justified.

To do this, you have to analyze the data carefully.

"But the time for the discussion will be in the spring - after the end of the omicron wave," says the virologist.

In politics, too, there are cautious signs of a possible change in strategy.

Bavaria's Prime Minister Söder, previously "Team Caution", told the "Münchner Merkur": "It will no longer be enough to only look at the situation medically and virologically.

We also have to pay more attention to the societal and social components.” So far, experts have described a smaller number of patients in the hospitals and milder courses.

“Omicron is not Delta.

That means: We have to adjust exactly which rules are absolutely necessary, but also proportionate.”

Could the situation worsen again due to a new corona variant that is similarly contagious to omicron but significantly more aggressive?

"Although this scenario cannot be ruled out, it is extremely unlikely," says Schmidt-Chanasit.

Compared to the delta variant, the omicron variant affects the upper airways more and less the deep areas of the lungs.

Therefore, it causes less severe courses.

With increasing basic immunity in the population, severe courses are less common, but: "Sars-CoV-2 will remain a challenge for the elderly or people with immunodeficiency in the next few years." In this respect, the virologist assumes that in addition to vaccination masks and tests will also play an important role in these areas in the years to come.

Epidemiologist Zeeb considers an even more infectious variant than omicron unlikely in the near future.

His hope: "At the moment we are going through the omicron wave and building up immunity - preferably on the basis of boosted vaccinations.

This is also important for later variants.” dpa