When Russia invades... Europe will make peace

The tragedy of Europe is that Germany is not standing up to Russia, and the European Union is not standing up to Germany.

A Russian invasion will have many losers.

I anticipate that the European Union, apart from Ukraine itself, will be one of the main ones.

When Russia invades, it will inadvertently expose Europe's internal divisions. I say “inadvertently” on purpose, because I don't think this is Putin's primary goal. What worries him is that the “color revolutions” — as he calls them — on Russia's periphery could end up penetrating Russian politics. To argue that NATO could invade Russia is absurd, of course. It's a Russian smokescreen. The threat to Russia is much more subtle, but no less real. The United States does not have much to offer to calm Putin's paranoia. He wants a political no man's land that necessarily includes Ukraine and Belarus.

What Russia always does—and the European Union almost never does—is act according to its own definition of what strategic interests are, no matter what opinion one has of that definition. Strategy is characterized by pursuing a long-term goal and being willing to pay a short-term price. European foreign policy, and Germany's in particular, is not strategic in the sense that it focuses on short-term profit. If the export of cars is prioritized, fewer degrees of freedom are left to defend other interests, such as human rights, climate change, security of supply or technological leadership.

When Russia invades, there could come a time when Germany and other European countries will run out of gas. That would depend on how the energy intervened in the conflict. Germany has put itself in that position because successive governments have not been able to develop a coherent energy policy. At the beginning of 2022 three nuclear power plants were switched off. The remaining three will be turned off by the end of the year. With the Greens in government, I see no chance of a policy change. The new coalition has ambitious plans to invest in renewable energy, but the accounts do not add up. The energy transition requires unprecedented investment in modern gas-fired thermoelectric plants as an interim solution. This means mainly Russian gas.The Greens may throw a tantrum over Nord Stream 2, but I don't think they have the guts to leave government over a gas pipeline and sacrifice their renewable energy investment programme. The deal is closed.

When Russia invades, everything will be pure artifice.

It has no interest in occupying all of Ukraine.

It will never invade a NATO country and try to occupy it.

What I fear is that, at some point, it will decide to close the Suwalki corridor, the strip of land along the Polish-Lithuanian border that separates Belarus - which, at the moment, is in fact a puppet state of Russia—from the Russian province of Kaliningrad.

That would give Russia direct land access to the southern Baltic Sea, and create divisions in the European Union.

If that were the case, the Baltic States would be geographically isolated from the EU and completely surrounded by Russia.

This is the scenario represented by the hypothetical map at the beginning of this article.

More information

Ukraine, center of Putin's geopolitical and emotional board

When Russia invades, it could also try to expand its military control of the Black Sea and push through the Ukrainian territory that separates it from Transnistria, the Russian-speaking province in eastern Moldova, another potential trouble spot.

When Russia invades, Germany will make peace.

The Germans will press for minimal sanctions, only those that do not harm their exports.

They will veto any proposal to kick Russia out of the SWIFT payment system if that proposal comes to the fore.

Nord Stream 2 is not in danger because neither the European Union nor the Biden administration wants to upset the Germans.

A Republican majority after this year's midterm elections could change US policy, but by then the gas will have started flowing.

When Russia invades, Europeans will snort as usual and complain that they are not invited to various diplomatic tables.

Sitting at a table is of great importance for Europe.

Expect to hear a lot of debate on side issues, like the majority vote in the Council on foreign policy.

What they will not debate is an increase in defense spending.

When Russia invades, no one will stand up to it.

And no one will stand up to the peacemakers.

Disappointed, as the English say, they will look from afar.

This is what happens when strategic thinking is left to others.

Wolfgang Münchau

is Director of www.eurointelligence.com

Translation of News Clips.

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