If former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signs the plea deal that will force him to retire from political life, the citizens of Israel will lose the leading person in their eyes in line with the prime minister's job.
This emerges from the "Israel Today" poll conducted this week, against the background of reports of a possible plea deal between Netanyahu and Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit.
In a survey conducted yesterday and Tuesday by the Maagar Mohot Institute led by Prof. Yitzhak Katz, 34% of respondents said that Netanyahu is the most suitable candidate for prime minister. This lead opens a huge gap over Yair Lapid, who is in second place with 17% of respondents. Incumbent Prime Minister Naftali Bennett receives only 6%, even less than some senior Likud members (who in this question "compete" with Netanyahu for support), and even less than Bnei Gantz, who receives 7%.
The assessment in the political system was and remains that if Netanyahu concludes that there is a high chance that he will be able to return to the prime minister in the coming years, while the trial continues, he will not sign a plea deal, and that if he concludes that his chances are low.
The survey, which included 504 respondents who constitute a representative sample of the adult population in Israel, and whose maximum sampling error is 4.4%, shows that Netanyahu still lacks several seats to come to power - assuming that the right-wing party does not join the government he heads.
The poll shows that the Likud strengthens slightly to 34 seats, and that the rest of the ultra-Orthodox bloc in the opposition reaches 58 seats.
If the right joins, the right-wing bloc led by Netanyahu will reach 63 seats.
Divided into seats, the right - the ruling party - wins only 5 seats.
New Hope led by Gideon Saar receives 3 seats and does not pass the blocking percentage.
Of those who voted right in the 24th Knesset election, only about a third said they would vote for it again.
19% of its voters went to the Likud, and another 13% went to support religious Zionism (which rises to 8 seats in the poll).
A quarter of its voters are "sitting on the fence" and do not currently have a party to support it.
New Hope voters dispersed mainly to the Likud (19%), to the right (12%) and to Blue and White (4%).
29% of its supporters have not yet decided who they will support.
transaction?
The public is divided
The political system still does not know whether the next few days will be the end of the Netanyahu era, and so will the potential voters.
Still, the results of the poll show that there is currently one preferred candidate for the public to replace the incumbent opposition leader - and that is Nir Barkat.
Had Barkat headed the Likud, the Likud would have fallen in number of seats - but not by much.
The Likud, led by Barkat, won 29 seats, and together with the right-wing bloc in the opposition, won 59 seats.
Like Netanyahu, Barkat has no majority without a right.
At the same time, it is estimated that the right-wing parties in the coalition will be able to support him and join the government led by him, in contrast to the scenario in which Netanyahu continues to lead the Likud.
However, if the Likud had been headed by Yuli Edelstein or Israel Katz, the large party in the Knesset would have dropped significantly in the number of seats, and in fact lost the lead in favor of Yesh Atid.
Edelstein brings the Likud to 16 seats and Katz to 15.
And what does the public think of the impending plea deal?
The public, it seems, is very divided.
The survey examined who wins the possible move and who loses.
36% said that the ombudsman and the State Attorney's Office gave up more in order to reach the plea deal as reported in the media, while 23% thought that Benjamin Netanyahu came out on top. 29% think they both gave up equally, while 12% think neither gave up.
Although the division is not very clear, it can be said that in general supporters of the right-wing parties believe that the one who gave up more to reach the plea deal is Netanyahu, while supporters of the left-wing parties believe that the spokesman and the prosecutor's office had to give up more to reach a settlement.
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