Houthi rebels attacked Abu Dhabi in response to UAE offensive 2:16
(CNN) --
A deadly drone strike in the heart of the United Arab Emirates capital has thrust the Middle East into uncharted territory at a time when the region's leaders have been trying to bridge gaps for years.
Three people were killed when attacks hit fuel trucks near Abu Dhabi airport on Monday, causing multiple explosions.
Yemen's Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, were quick to claim responsibility for the attacks.
Who are the Houthis?
In response, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia responded by bombing the Yemeni capital of Sana'a with airstrikes, killing at least 12 people, in the deadliest bombing on the city since 2019.
In addition to escalating violence in a region that has tried to turn the page on a decade of proxy wars, the exchange of fire could also cloud a series of high-level talks between regional and international enemies.
Negotiations between Iran and Western powers on how to revive the 2015 agreement to limit Tehran's nuclear program have recently shown signs of progress.
And there are also signs that the historic but difficult talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran, its regional rival, were beginning to bear fruit.
But the unprecedented Houthi attacks on Abu Dhabi could interfere with those talks.
And if the rebels make good on their promise to launch new attacks, it could dent the UAE's image as a safe place to live, work and do business in a troubled region.
This is what you need to know about the crisis.
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In this satellite image provided by Planet Labs PBC, smoke rises over a fuel depot in the Mussafah neighborhood of Abu Dhabi on Monday.
Why was the Houthi attack so important?
As well as being the first deadly attack on the United Arab Emirates in many years, Monday's drone strikes demonstrated the Houthis' ability to launch long-range strikes. Yemeni rebels frequently carry out cross-border attacks on Saudi Arabia, Yemen's neighbor, but these were relatively short distances compared to Abu Dhabi, and the vast majority of the missiles and drones were intercepted before reaching their targets.
Oil prices soared after the attacks, prompting a groundswell of international condemnation from the United States and other world leaders.
UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed called on the United States to reclassify the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization, a classification that was instituted in the final days of the Trump administration before being lifted by the president. Joe Biden.
The Houthis previously claimed to have carried out attacks against the Emirates, with which they do not share a border.
But the UAE authorities never acknowledged the alleged attacks, and many observers found the claims implausible.
Now Yemen's Houthis have made good on a years-long threat against the UAE, a major coalition partner in the Saudi-led six-year military campaign to crush Iranian-backed rebels.
The remains of buildings damaged in Saudi-led coalition airstrikes in Sana'a, Yemen, on Tuesday, January 18.
In 2019, the United Arab Emirates withdrew most of its troops from Yemen, privately deeming the war unwinnable.
The campaign failed to crush the rebels, but took a huge humanitarian toll, with thousands of Yemeni deaths, malnutrition and widespread disease.
More recently, however, the UAE has returned to combat, supporting Yemeni groups in trouble spots such as the oil-rich provinces of Shabwa and Marib and repelling Houthi fighters from the strategic desert city.
Now analysts say the rebels are seeking to provoke another Emirati withdrawal.
"The intervention of the UAE-backed forces was a game changer. This angered the Houthis," said Maged al-Madhaji, executive director and co-founder of the Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies.
"The Houthis are trying to create some kind of balance by hitting the Emirati's image of stability and security."
The United Arab Emirates is seeking to acquire approximately $23 billion worth of weapons from the US.
What is at stake for the United Arab Emirates?
The oil-rich nation has managed to avoid the political turmoil seen elsewhere in the region for decades.
Stability is one of the main advantages of the UAE, which manages to attract millions of expatriates and billions of dollars in foreign investment, but that image could be shattered if the conflict with the Houthis intensifies.
The UAE relies heavily on foreign workers, who make up the vast majority of the country's workforce.
The authorities intensively manage the country's reputation, and freedom of political expression is practically non-existent.
Proponents of such restrictions argue they are necessary to maintain stability against all odds in a troubled Middle East.
The Abu Dhabi skyline, photographed in 2020. Credit: Diego Puletto/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
But for years, the UAE's powerful foreign policy, which saw it intervene in Egypt, Libya, Syria and the Horn of Africa, as well as Yemen, endangered that very stability.
When tankers were targeted by its regional archenemy Iran in 2019 off the UAE coast, Abu Dhabi quickly changed course.
Since then, he has embarked on a diplomatic career to mend old disagreements. He has made a number of overtures to Iran, including sending a high-level delegation, reportedly in October 2019 and then again in late 2021. He has also strengthened ties with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad after to support the armed groups that tried to overthrow him in the war in that country. UAE leaders have repeatedly said they want to become a de-escalation force in the region.
However, Monday's attack highlighted a point that many observers have pointed out, namely that turning the page on a decade of blood-soaked proxy warfare will be neither easy nor instant.
All countries in the region, and not just the UAE, will have an interest in seeing Monday's violence subside quickly.
Was Iran involved in the Houthi attack on the UAE?
We do not know.
What we do know is that the drones were likely supplied by Iran, the Houthis' main ally in their war against Yemen's internationally recognized government.
But it is unclear whether the Houthis' backers in Tehran ordered the attack, or whether the rebel group made the decision unilaterally.
It would not be the first time that groups aligned with Iran have appeared to go their own way.
In November 2021, the head of Iran's elite Quds Force, Esmail Qaani, visited Iraq's Prime Minister Mostafa al-Kadhimi, shortly after an attempt on his life by Iranian-backed militias.
Some observers viewed the visit as an attempt to distance Iran from the actions of its militant allies.
Iran's new president takes office amid stalemate in nuclear talks and hopes of easing tensions with Saudi Arabia
Another reason to suspect the Houthis acted of their own free will is that Iran has repeatedly said it wants to revive relations with its regional enemies.
Iran's hardline new president Ebrahim Raisi has received at least two invitations to visit the UAE, according to Iranian state media.
In their statements condemning the Abu Dhabi bombing, Saudi Arabia and the UAE uncharacteristically refrained from blaming the rebel group's supporters in Tehran.
Iran has yet to publicly comment on the attack.
As usual, however, Iran's leadership is hard to read.
A Lebanese news outlet, Al Mayadeen, reported that Raisi met with the head of the Sana'a negotiation team in Tehran on Monday, the day of the attack.
Some observers saw it as an admission of responsibility for the Abu Dhabi attack.
What does this mean for the Iran nuclear talks?
Monday's violence could derail nuclear talks in Vienna, as well as parallel talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran, seen as critical to the success of a possible second version of the 2015 deal.
If Iran is believed to be behind Monday's attack in Abu Dhabi, just as it was widely accused of being responsible for the 2019 attacks on ARAMCO oil refineries (Iran has denied the accusations), measures to encourage confidence could collapse and it would be difficult to see how negotiations could continue.
If, on the other hand, Iran brings the Houthis to heel, as an offer to their regional enemies, then Monday's violence could be forgotten and negotiations could continue, possibly without interruption.
-- Sarah El Sirgany contributed reporting from Abu Dhabi.
Abu Dhabi Drone Attacks