Benjamin Morel is a lecturer in public law at the University of Paris II Panthéon-Assas.
FIGAROVOX.- Édouard Philippe created his own Horizons movement. What purpose ? Is there political space for another centre-right movement?
Benjamin Morel.-
Emmanuel Macron's electorate has changed since 2017. The latter is now much more center-right oriented than during the last presidential elections. While these voters have arrived at Macronism, many are elderly and have entrenched right-wing identities. They have always voted for the right and feel they belong to this political family. But for the moment, the Macron vote is for them a pragmatic vote, for lack of anything better, in the face-to-face elections. On the other hand, during local elections, when they have the choice, they vote again on the right. It is therefore a captured electorate, but on an unsolidified basis; volatile, for Emmanuel Macron. dispose ofa party that can allow these voters to recognize themselves in their right-wing identity while connecting with the majority can be a good strategy to retain them. Of course, there is Action. However, it is more a parliamentary group than a real party, and it is not insulting Franck Riester to say that he does not have the political depth and popularity of former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe. .
Is this a launch pad for the 2027 presidential election?
It seems pretty obvious that this is the long-term goal, but the road is still steep.
Horizons is first of all an instrument of empowerment of the right of the majority and of Édouard Philippe.
A party is an instrument that makes it possible to capture funding and therefore to have the means for its independence.
If you are independent, you can impose your conditions on your allies, or at least negotiate.
For the moment, Édouard Philippe only has to negotiate his insolent popularity, which he is not sure will prevent the reconquest by Valérie Pécresse of right-wing voters.
A second five-year term dominated by the struggles between François Bayrou, Richard Ferrand and Édouard Philippe today represents a serious probability.
This is what Emmanuel Macron wants to avoid.
Benjamin Morel
Horizons is also an instrument for legislative elections. It must be understood that if Emmanuel Macron is re-elected, he will not be able to stand for re-election in 2027. The succession will therefore be open. In addition, the legislative elections would then take place in a particular climate. The LREM majority comes out dented from this five-year term and it is not certain that the majority breath plays in favor of deputies who have not succeeded in establishing themselves. Moreover, the legislative elections come particularly late compared to the presidential ones, which can produce unknown effects. If Emmanuel Macron has a majority, it therefore risks being fragmented. Between a weakened president and a tattered majority, it is the leaders of the political groups who risk laying down the law and selling their support very dearly.A second five-year term dominated by the struggles between François Bayrou, Richard Ferrand and Édouard Philippe today represents a serious probability. This is what Emmanuel Macron wants to avoid.
How to explain the failure of the merger of Horizons with Agir? Does it mark a break between Édouard Philippe and Emmanuel Macron?
Emmanuel Macron wants to avoid ending up in the hands of the barons of political parties and groups if he wins.
The risk is real that he will find himself a spectator of his second five-year term.
The latter therefore asked Franck Riester to renounce the merger with Horizons, which would have allowed Édouard Philippe to become independent and on the right of LREM to find a flagship to dictate his choices to the majority, and therefore to the President. .
Can this break the relationship between the two men?
For the moment, neither of them has any interest in it.
Benjamin Morel
Can this break the relationship between the two men? For the moment, neither of them has any interest in it. Édouard Philippe has no interest in Emmanuel Macron failing in 2022. This would probably involve a shift to the right and he would go from being the strongman of the former majority to that of an ugly duckling, a traitor, for the news. Moreover, this would mean that Emmanuel Macron could present himself in 2027 and that this political space would therefore also be closed to him. For his part, Emmanuel Macron needs to hold his center-right electorate on which he is threatened by Valérie Pécresse. But Édouard Philippe is the best placed to play this role. It is therefore rather a standoff between two allies constrained and forced.
Does this failure risk harming Édouard Philippe in the next legislative elections?
Yes, because this will limit the party's ability to act.
Above all, this would have made it possible to enter into a more favorable balance of power to negotiate more winnable constituencies.
At this stage, it is not even certain that an agreement can take place between the different components of the majority.
It is not excluded that LREM and Horizons will come face to face in certain constituencies.
If this were to be the case, it would not only be a very bad signal, but it would also hamper the possibility of obtaining a majority.
Valérie Pécresse considers that the tensions between the Head of State and Édouard Philippe show “the reality of the relationship between” the two men and appeals to “all those who believed that Emmanuel Macron could reach out to the center right ". How do you view his analysis?
It doesn't seem to me that the very substance of his words should be taken too seriously.
Valérie Pécresse is a presidential candidate, not a political analyst.
As a candidate, she knows that the center-right electorate partly escapes her today, because he remains attached to Emmanuel Macron.
She also knows that one of the keystones of holding this electorate is the presence of Édouard Philippe in the campaign.
By highlighting the tensions between the President and him, she sends a message to her electorate that: either he is cheated and hated by the President, as Édouard Philippe would be;
either that in reality Édouard Philippe is not even really in the device and that therefore the right has deserted the macronie.
Read alsoPresidential 2022: facing Valérie Pécresse, Édouard Philippe at the center of the game
It is a serious attack and, if we can understand Emmanuel Macron's desire to save a potential second five-year term, he still has to be re-elected.
However, if the Pécresse candidacy proves to be structurally serious, if it once again enjoys momentum, Édouard Philippe will be essential.
After what has just happened, let's bet that it will be able to sell dearly.
It is therefore possible that, in one way or another, Emmanuel Macron will end up paying for his overconfidence.
