Unoptimistic prospects.
World tourism is not expected to return to its pre-pandemic level before 2024, according to the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) barometer released on Tuesday.
A majority of experts from this UN agency (64%) believe that the return of international arrivals to 2019 levels will only occur in 2024 or later.
They were only 45% last September.
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These projections may be explained by the slow recovery of world tourist traffic.
In 2021, the number of international tourist arrivals certainly increased by 4% compared to 2020 - described by the UNWTO as "the
worst year in the history of tourism
" -, rising from 400 to 415 million.
But it remains 72% below its 2019 level.
A rebound of 30% to 78% in 2022
This slight return of tourists is "
uneven from one region of the world to another
", underlines the UNWTO, "
due to differences in restrictions on mobility, vaccination rates and levels of confidence of travelers
".
Thus, Europe and America are doing the best (respectively +19% and +17% compared to 2020), unlike Asia and the Pacific, whose arrivals in 2021 were still 65% lower at 2020 levels, "
many destinations remaining closed to non-essential travel
".
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If the UNWTO is betting for 2022 on a 30% to 78% rebound in tourist arrivals - which would remain 50% to 63% below pre-pandemic levels - the start of the year could be disrupted by "
the recent wave cases of Covid-19 and the Omicron variant
”, warns the institution attached to the UN, “
knowing that countries are reinstating travel bans and restrictions targeting certain markets
”. "
A difficult economic environment could weigh even more on the effective recovery of international tourism
", adds the UN body
,
"
with soaring oil prices, rising inflation, potential interest rate hikes, high levels of debt and supply chains that remain disrupted
”.
