Ukraine points out that Russia has more than 127,000 soldiers in the border region 3:16
(CNN) --
Ukraine has warned that Russia has "almost completed" a buildup of forces that could be used for an offensive against the country.
According to the latest intelligence assessment from the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, shared exclusively with CNN on Tuesday, Russia has now deployed more than 127,000 troops to the region.
US says Russia creates excuses to invade Ukraine 1:08
"The entire strength of the ground group RFAF [Armed Forces of the Russian Federation] in the Ukrainian direction: more than 106,000 personnel. Together with the maritime and air component, the total number of personnel exceeds 127,000 servicemen," the assessment says.
The report maintains that the situation in the region remains "difficult", adding that Ukraine believes that Russia is "trying to divide and weaken the European Union and NATO".
US weighs more military support for Ukraine to resist Russia if it invades
Russia's actions are also "aimed at limiting the capabilities of the United States," the assessment adds, "to ensure security on the European continent."
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Ukrainian military intelligence says Russia has deployed officers from its central and eastern regions to its western border "permanently," adding that in late December 2021 and January 2022, Russia moved "ammunition stockpiles, field hospitals and security and services" to the border, which according to Ukraine "confirms readiness for offensive operations".
“Currently, 54 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTG) are on constant alert near the borders of Ukraine (2 BTG more than the previous week).
Thirty-four of them are permanently deployed and an additional 20," the assessment says.
He further claims that Russia supports more than 35,000 rebels in eastern Ukraine and has around 3,000 of its own military personnel based in rebel territory.
Moscow denies having forces in eastern Ukraine.
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Russian intelligence activity against Ukraine intensified with the deployment of additional SIGINT units near the Ukrainian border and reconnaissance flights along the Ukrainian border, over the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, tripled since last year.
The Ukrainian military says it is assessing that Russia could use medium-range missiles to "destroy vital objects" in Ukraine.
“Additional tactical groups of operational tactical missiles "Iskander" were transferred to the border with Ukraine.
As of mid-January 2022, the total number of Iskander launchers near Ukraine is 36,” the assessment says.
Biden asks Putin to reduce tensions with Ukraine 5:17
The assessment says the Iskander missiles are capable of hitting targets 500-700 km away and could now target areas such as Ukraine's capital Kyiv.
new battle front
The Ukrainian document warned that a new potential battlefront has now emerged along its northern border with Belarus with increased joint military exercises and Russian patrols with the country, a key Kremlin ally.
"The territory of Belarus should be considered as a full theater of operations that Russia can use to expand aggression against Ukraine," says the Ukrainian military intelligence document.
US State Department officials underscored those concerns on Tuesday, saying the beefed-up Russian troop presence in Belarus has increased its capabilities along the Ukrainian border and has led to heightened concern about an invasion.
"What it represents is an increase in Russia's ability to launch this attack. Greater opportunity, greater avenues, greater risk," a senior US State Department official said, adding that troops were moved into Belarus without enough notice.
In Belarus, Russia is "taking advantage of the vulnerability of (Belarussian leader Alexander) Lukashenko and tapping into some of those accumulated IOUs," the official said.
"The timing is remarkable and, of course, raises concerns that Russia may intend to station troops in Belarus under the pretext of holding joint military exercises in order to potentially attack Ukraine from the north," the official said.
Although the official declined to discuss Russian President Vladimir Putin's intentions regarding the deployment of troops to Belarus, the official described Putin as "an opportunist."
"We have seen warning signs that dynamics within Belarus are allowing Russia to take further advantage of Lukashenko's self-inflicted vulnerability," the official said.
US officials said a Russian invasion of Ukraine could happen anytime in the next month or two.
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"Russian military plans to launch activities several weeks before a military invasion is something we have been watching closely and our assessment has been that it could happen anytime between mid-January and mid-February," a second senior official at the Department of State.
The United States is closely watching whether Lukashenko still has the levers of control at home, or whether decision-making has largely passed to Russia.
Belarus has become an "increasingly destabilizing actor in the region," the first State Department official said, pointing to a series of recent actions such as the fabrication of a migrant crisis on the Polish-Belarus border, the detention of activists and the retention of more than 900 political prisoners.
United against Putin
Ukraine's assessment comes as the country's former president Petro Poroshenko told CNN's Christiane Amanpour on Tuesday that "the whole world should be united against Putin," and that Ukraine should be allowed to join NATO.
The billionaire led Ukraine from 2014 to 2019, taking power shortly after Russia invaded and subsequently annexed Crimea.
He was defeated in the 2019 presidential election by incumbent Volodymyr Zelensky.
"It is absolutely necessary that there be international solidarity and unity" against Putin, Poroshenko said, adding that Western allies should not trust the Russian leader.
The 56-year-old president also called for increased international sanctions against Russia.
"We have to make Russia weaker, and to make it weaker, we can do it through sanctions. We must make Ukraine stronger. And day by day, we should receive new lethal effective defensive weapons," he said.
Poroshenko also said that "no one knows, including Putin," whether a Russian invasion will actually happen and much will depend on the introduction of sanctions.
Calling a possible invasion a "crazy decision," he said the international community should "significantly increase the price Putin would have to pay" if Russian forces crossed the Ukrainian border.
Asked if endemic corruption is one of the reasons Ukraine has not been accepted as a NATO member, Poroshenko blamed his successor, Zelensky, for a "backslide" in anti-corruption reforms.
Poroshenko returned to the capital Kiev on Monday to face treason charges related to financing Russian-backed separatist fighters through the illegal sale of coal in 2014 and 2015.
Pressed on the charges he faces, Poroshenko said the allegations were "politically motivated" and prosecutors had "zero evidence".
According to Reuters, critics say his return to Ukraine is serving as an unwelcome distraction amid the political crisis with Russia.
From CNN's Matthew Chance in Kyiv
