When does the omicron wall collapse?
These three hotspots provide clues
Created: 01/19/2022, 18:01
By: Elena Royer
The Omicron wave rolls over Germany.
There are record numbers of new infections almost every day.
How long will that take in this country?
Three hotspots could provide clues.
Berlin – The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) is currently reporting new records for new corona infections almost every day.
How long will the numbers continue to rise in Germany?
Has the summit ever been reached?
Three sites that were early omicron hotspots provide clues.
When does the omicron wall collapse?
These three hotspots provide clues
The number of corona cases has been increasing rapidly for several weeks.
Scientists agree that omicron will hit almost everyone.
And pandemic models also predicted 400,000 to 700,000 new infections within one day for Great Britain, reports
ntv
.
So far, however, this prediction has not come true for Great Britain.
According to the UK Health Security Agency, the previous high was reached on December 29 with 246,269 new infections.
Since then, the numbers in the UK have been falling.
A similar picture is currently emerging in Pretoria, which according to
ntv
is the world's first omicron hotspot, and in New York.
Corona: Omicron course shows similar course in three hotspots
It is remarkable that the omicron wave took a similar course in all three hotspots.
The virus wall built up almost everywhere for the same amount of time, namely over a period of three weeks.
After that, the numbers went down.
The amazing thing is that the waves are the same, although the population structures and vaccination rates are different in all three countries.
In London, only 62.9 percent of those over the age of 12 are vaccinated, according to the UK Health Security Agency.
In the province of Gauteng, where Pretoria is located, only 42.97 percent of all adults are vaccinated.
This is according to data from the National Department of Health in South Africa.
The city of New York, on the other hand, gives the number of all fully vaccinated residents as 74 percent.
Omikron: Only a few measures in hotspots
Only a few measures were taken in the three hotspots to put an end to the omicron wave.
According to
ntv
, South Africa only had a curfew from midnight to 4 a.m. and a ban on alcohol sales from 11 p.m.
In addition, there were probably upper limits for people at indoor events.
A similar picture in Great Britain: According to
ntv
, a mask requirement was imposed on local public transport and in some indoor areas and the population was called on to work from home and to vaccinate.
New York also called on its citizens to vaccinate.
Citizens should also wear a mask where possible.
But there was no obligation.
Omicron wave: Can these three hotspots be used to identify Germany?
One of the first hotspots in Germany with regard to the omicron wave was Bremen.
There was a steep increase in the number of cases between Christmas and New Year, as the RKI dashboard shows.
Since January 13, however, the numbers have also been declining there.
For Bremen, too, it can be said that the peak is reached after three weeks and the number of cases is falling again - similar to the three hotspots.
Overcoming the omicron wave quickly: That makes experts doubt
According to ZDF, experts would doubt that the course of the omicron wave in Great Britain would also be a possible way out of the pandemic for Germany. Bremen-based epidemiologist Hajo Zeeb explains that hospitals in Great Britain, among other places, are struggling with very high numbers of infections, at least regionally. He estimates that an uncontrolled infection could also occur regionally in Germany. According to ZDF, the virologist Ulrike Protzer also doubts that the German health system could withstand a similar wave. This is because immunity in the UK population is higher due to higher vaccination rates and previous severe waves of infection.
It will not be possible to prevent a large part of the population in Germany from becoming infected with omicron, but according to Protzer it is sensible to take measures.