Worrying omicron development in South Africa: Death numbers are rising despite falling new infections

Created: 01/19/2022, 05:40

By: Felix Durach

South Africa is currently recording an increase in the number of corona deaths, although new infections have been falling for a long time.

© Jerome Delay/dpa

In South Africa, despite falling new infections, there has been an increase in deaths after a corona infection.

A reason for concern in Germany too?

Pretoria - South Africa is considered the country of origin of the omicron variant.

The highly contagious virus mutation was first detected there last year before it spread to large parts of the world.

Since South Africa was hit by the omicron wave comparatively early, it is always worth taking a look at the Cape of Good Hope for pandemic forecasts.

It was reported there last year that the course of an infection with Omikron should be milder than with Delta.

A development that can now also be observed in Germany.

Omicron: Deaths in South Africa are increasing significantly - virologist is "not alarmed"

However, worrying developments are currently being reported from South Africa. While the daily new infections continue to fall and the peak of the omicron wave seems to have long been passed, the number of fatalities who died after a corona infection is increasing again. Is there a risk of such a development with a slight delay in Germany, where Omikron has meanwhile become the dominant variant?

The virologist Friedemann Weber is level-headed with regard to the developments compared to

.

"I'm not alarmed by the delay," said the expert.

Weber sees three possible reasons for the increase in the number of deaths.

On the one hand, it is not unusual for there to be a temporal discrepancy between high numbers of infections and high numbers of deaths.

This is due to the fact that it takes a certain amount of time for Covid patients to develop severe symptoms after infection, which can then ultimately lead to death.

It is not unusual for there to be two to three weeks between reported infection and reported death.

Omicron: More deaths despite falling infections - these could be the reasons

An observation that recent developments in South Africa may have reinforced. Due to the extremely high number of cases at the end of last year and the reporting delays caused by the Christmas holidays, it could have taken significantly longer for all corona deaths to be reported. These reports, which are now arriving late, could be another reason for the high death toll.

As a third explanation, the virologist refers to the nature of the omicron.

As is already known, the highly contagious mutation cannot infect the cells of the lungs as well as the delta variant.

Weber therefore thinks it is possible that an infection with omicrons could take longer before severe symptoms appear, which can ultimately lead to death.

However, this assessment is “pure speculation”, as the virologist emphasizes.

Omicron peak not yet reached in Germany - Lauterbach makes forecast

In view of the figures, it is currently difficult to predict whether a development similar to that in South Africa is imminent in Germany.

There are too big differences between the population structure and the health systems of the two countries.

However, many experts predict that the peak of the current wave in Germany is still to come.

Among others, Health Minister Karl Lauterbach, who, according to information from ntv, expects the current wave in Germany to peak in mid-February.

The health system in the Federal Republic would therefore face the greatest burden with a slight delay at the beginning of March.