Drinking an orange juice is going to be more expensive. These are the reasons

By Phil McCauslandNBC

Americans love oranges and orange juice, but they could soon see their love tested by the rising cost of citrus.

Florida farmers and the US Department of Agriculture have warned that this year's crop yield will be especially poor, due to inclement weather and a disease affecting oranges.

The situation has gotten so bad that some fear it will be one of the worst seasons since World War II.

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Things are tough for Florida farmers.

After plummeting for more than a decade, the demand for orange juice has increased in the last two years.

However, the estimated supply of oranges for processing is at or near an all-time low.

“We have the disease problem, along with poor fruit set and extremely high fruit drop before harvest, which is generally weather related,” explained Larry Black, vice president and general manager of Peace River Packing Company, a farm. of oranges in Fort Meade, Florida.

The main culprit is huanglongbing disease, also known as HLB or citrus greening, which has taken hold on Florida orange trees.

Infected trees bear smaller, higher-acid, lower-sugar fruit, which has even prompted Florida farmers to advocate that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) lower its standards for sugar content for juice.

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Our sister network NBC News reported in 2018 on the effect HLB had on Florida's orange groves, which was exacerbated by Hurricane Irma.

The disease has persisted in the following years and has further decimated orange harvests during the economic turmoil suffered throughout the pandemic.

Although the poor citrus yield is not related to the pandemic, the spread of the coronavirus has also caused the cost of labor, transportation, fertilizers, seeds and other key agricultural inputs to rise.

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"Consumers are realizing the value of orange juice and making that purchase, so Florida citrus growers have to keep fighting," said Mike Sparks, executive vice president and general manager of Florida Citrus Mutual.

"We have to deal with high production costs, labor problems and imports, but the first thing is to take care of our trees," he recalled.

The situation for California orange growers is quite different.

Although HLB has not been as widespread on the West Coast, the disease has made its way into the state's citrus supply.

Farmers, however, are faced with a glut of oranges that they cannot move due to the country's tight supply chain.

A migrant worker picks oranges in an orchard in Bradenton, Florida, on March 29, 2006. Philippe Diederich/Getty Images

Emily Ayala, owner and vice president of Friend's Ranches Inc. in Ojai, California, said farmers in her area had to dump about 10% of their oranges they couldn't get to market because of supply chain issues.

"He broke our hearts," he lamented.

"We threw fruit that was perfectly good to eat on the ground because we couldn't find the transportation and labor to move it," he explained.

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Unfortunately, California oranges can't make up for Florida's losses.

The former have thicker skins that are suitable for eating and culinary uses, while the latter are very juicy, with thin skins that are excellent for juicing.

Farmers in both states face two different sets of challenges.

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"A lot of people don't realize it, but there are two parallel supply chains for oranges in the US," said Richard Volpe, a professor of supply chain management and food retailing in the College of Agriculture, Food and Science. Environmental Studies from California Polytechnic State University.

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Volpe explained that the effects of both situations will undoubtedly cause an increase in the cost of oranges and orange juice, although he does not expect it to be much.

Retailers strive to keep prices low so consumers will keep buying and it helps to consider those prices in historical context.

“When it comes to food, and this is especially true for fruits and vegetables, prices are lower today than they were 20, 30, 40 or 50 years ago,” Volpe recalled.

“Even though we are seeing strong inflation, in terms of food becoming unaffordable or scarce, these are not concerns that people should have right now.

We are going to see these prices go down again both in nominal and real terms”, he predicted.

For the Florida orange industry, however, it may take more than a few years for things to return to normal and growers outgrow this disease.

“We won't get it back in a year.

Not in five either,” Sparks said.

“We have to plant HLB-resistant trees, and they take three to four years to bear fruit.

We're probably talking about a decade to get back on track, and probably a little more than that," he explained.