The epidemic broke out again in Hong Kong. The government tightened social distancing measures at the beginning of the month, and the operations of many industries were frozen, affecting the livelihood of citizens.
The first data affecting MTR fares was released today (20th). The composite consumer price index in December rose by 2.4% compared with the same period last year. The Census and Statistics Department pointed out that it was mainly due to the impact of meal and electricity charges.
"Hong Kong 01" calculates based on the latest data, the MTR fare is adjusted to 0.32%, which is not up to the range that can actually be increased, and there is a high chance of price freezing.
However, the results are still pending on the fourth-quarter nominal wage index for the transportation industry, and there will be a chance to cut prices if the index falls by 1.8% from the same period last year.
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Composite CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year, electricity and meal expenses rose significantly
The Census and Statistics Department announced that the consumer price index for December last year increased by 2.4% compared with the same month last year, and increased by 1.8% compared with the previous month. Even excluding the government's one-off relief measures, it still recorded an increase, which is expected to be the same as eating out and takeaway. Costs and electricity costs increased due to the expansion.
A government spokesman also pointed out that the underlying consumer price inflation rate rose to 1.4% in December, referring to the low base due to the fourth wave of the epidemic in the same period last year, which led to an increase in the year-on-year increase in the cost of eating out and takeaways.
However, the spokesman also pointed out that the increase in energy prices has accelerated, and the prices of major consumer price index items such as clothing and footwear and transportation have also increased significantly.
▼On March 16, the government approved bus companies to increase fares▼
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It is tentatively estimated that the increase rate is 0.35%, which has not reached the rate of increase.
The MTR's "add or drop" fare mechanism is mainly affected by the change in the nominal wage index of the transportation industry in the fourth quarter and the change in the composite consumer price index in December last year.
According to the mechanism formula, the change in the Composite Consumer Price Index in December last year is added to the change in the nominal wage index of the transportation industry in the fourth quarter of last year, multiplied by 0.5, and then deducted by an additional 0.6% to obtain the MTR fare increase. results.
0.5* Change of Composite CPI in December last year (+2.4%) + 0.5* Change of wage index of transportation industry in September (-0.5%) - Productivity factor (0) - Additional deduction (0.6%) = Forecast fare for this year Adjustment range (+0.35%)
Using the latest figures, "Hong Kong 01" predicted that the nominal wage index of the transportation industry in the third quarter announced at the end of last month fell by 0.5%. Taking into account the key figures of the changes in the Composite Consumer Price Index in December, the fares for this year were temporarily adjusted to a 0.35% increase.
If the price adjustment range is between ±1.5%, the MTR will not adjust. Therefore, according to the formula, it is expected that the MTR ticket price will continue to be frozen for the time being.
Unless, the transportation wage index changes
However, the delay increase that was not taken into account due to the "cap" in the past was 2.85%, and it is unknown how it will be calculated.
However, in any case, the mechanism sets up a "cap" mechanism of "affordability cap", and the rate of increase in the implementation cannot be higher than the change in the median monthly household income during the same period. According to the latest figures for the third quarter of 2021, households The median monthly household income became about 1.52%.
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