It was a stinging setback that the American senators inflicted last night on the Democratic leader.
And Joe Biden said he was "deeply disappointed" that the US Senate buried the electoral reform with which the president promised to protect access to the ballot box for African-Americans.
Ten months before the mid-term legislative elections, Joe Biden wanted with this reform to lay down a federal framework for the organization of the polls in the United States. And in doing so, cancel a series of restrictions adopted in fifteen conservative states since the 2020 presidential election. According to NGOs, these restrictions deliberately discriminate against black voters, the majority who voted for Joe Biden in the last election. In the Republican states, it is assured on the contrary that these measures strengthen the security of the country's polls, a strong argument with their voters, many of whom still believe that the 2020 presidential election was "stolen" from Donald Trump.
Still, this resounding failure, a year after his inauguration, augurs well for an extremely complex mandate for the American head of state, as explained to us by Jean-Éric Branaa, lecturer at Paris 2 Panthéon-Assas, specialist in American politics.
Biden just suffered a bitter defeat in the Senate…
Jean-Éric Branaa:
He hadn't expected the Republicans to oppose him like that.
This goes against his longstanding political vision, which is that of compromise.
There was a paradigm shift in American politics that he didn't see coming.
Last night, he took notice.
The real power in the United States actually resides in Congress, without whom nothing is possible.
Unlike his predecessor, who ruled by executive order, Biden doesn't want to do that.
A former senator, he is historically a congressman.
But the Republicans do not want to work with him, as he hoped at the start of his term.
It is more an acknowledgment of the failure of its outstretched hand policy than an admission of powerlessness.
Did the Republicans win the parliamentary war?
The Republicans pulled off an extraordinary coup: their leader Mitch McConnell regained control of his camp, which he federated.
But he did not win the war.
Especially since Donald Trump is still there, in retreat of course, but with the ability to blow up his own party.
But how will Joe Biden be able to move forward with his agenda, with such opposition?
In reality today, today, the Senate is 50/50, Joe Biden can therefore do without the Republicans, since he has the majority thanks to Kamala Harris and the House of Representatives is also a Democratic majority. He has only one way left, and that is to negotiate with his own side. He will have to find common denominators with his majority and scale down his ambitions on certain laws that he absolutely wants to see passed. For example, he will have to operate like this for his emblematic law: "Build Back Better". This project, which notably provides for free kindergarten for all or the improvement of health coverage, is a plan pushed by the left wing of the Democratic Party. If he wants the text not to remain blocked in the Senate,he will have to satisfy the centrist Democrats who are less advanced on social issues. Especially since some Republicans are not going to block on everything, especially on energy aid.
Can his camp turn against him?
He has no enemy on his side.
There are people in tension on certain issues, like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or Bernie Sanders, who want to go very far to the left.
These forget the other part of the Democratic Party more centered on the economy.
His job is to go and make compromises, until the midterms (midterm elections).
Secondly, he will play his role as president more by turning to foreign policy.
Is there not a risk of a watered down policy for three years?
It's a danger but we don't know what will happen in six months!
Unemployment is dropping to historic lows, maybe all will be well.
Some are already singing the "return of the glorious 30" in the United States, that may be the end of his presidency.
Conversely, it can also be total sclerosis.
What leeway can he have in this context?
The pandemic is actually his number one problem. If the Covid-19 “leaves him alone”, and the economy continues its upward trajectory, he will have real means of action. He already has for him to have succeeded in passing the “Infrastructure law”. This policy of major works amounting to 1,700 billion dollars has been voted. The construction of new ports, high-speed train lines, the renovation of the road network, the development of high-tech infrastructures, etc., all this will energize the country. It's gigantic, even if I'm an enthusiast. Thanks will be returned to him in 20 years. You have to look at the table a little further. However, in his priorities, he will have to act on inflation, which is stronger than ever across the Atlantic
(6.8% in 2021, editor's note).
It's unbearable for the poorest who see their savings melt away and their purchasing power drop.
Joe Biden will therefore have to find a solution very quickly.