The mutant virus Omicron spread out of control in Kwai Chung Village. A total of more than 100 people were recruited in the village. Together with the adjacent Kwai Fu Court, a total of 18 blocks were subject to forced inspection, two of which were to be quarantined and four to be enclosed.
The rapid spread of the virus has re-emerged the controversy of "zeroing" and "coexistence" of the virus. Leung Pak-yin, the former chief executive of the Hospital Authority, questioned the impracticality of "zeroing". With more than 100 new cases per day, it is technically impossible to investigate and then implement forced inspections wherever the confirmed cases go.
Siddharth Sridhar, clinical assistant professor of the Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, pointed out that insisting on "zeroing" will inevitably lead to a repeat of the tragedy of culling hamsters, because the policy logic of "zeroing" is to exclude the virus at any cost. outside the community.
However, in the new stage, the reality that the virus will spread for a long time must be recognized, and "zeroing" is an impossible task, so many parts of the world are beginning to "coexist" with the virus under the condition of widespread vaccination.
Xue Da said that if Hong Kong takes "clearing" as the golden rule simply because it wants to clear customs with the mainland, even if it succeeds in customs clearance one day, it will not last, because "clearing" is unlikely to last, and either party will soon "break the cable". ", described as fragile as "soap bubbles".
He said that if Hong Kong insists on "zeroing out", "it will get worse if it gets ready before (the situation) gets better... and the outside world will enter the final chapter of the epidemic in 2022, and Hong Kong is just the beginning." However, he said It is emphasized that the vaccination rate must be pushed up before "coexisting" with the virus, and it cannot be just one shot.
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Frustration over hamster culling should target 'zero out' policy
Xue Da pointed out that the culling of hamsters has led to a strong rebound in the new round of the epidemic, together with forced inspections and price increases for imported goods. The public's frustration should be directed to the "clearing" policy.
He pointed out that from 2020 to mid-2021, many parts of the world will try to keep the number of infections as low as possible, which is necessary at that time, because it is necessary to buy time to wait for an effective vaccine to be released. Among them, the mainland and New Zealand have been successful.
However, when efficient vaccines appear, the mortality rate of different viruses has been greatly reduced, and the spread of the virus has increased, and a large number of people around the world have developed immunity. Although it cannot completely prevent the re-infection of recovered patients, it can prevent severe illness and death on a large scale. Therefore, in the face of this wave of Omicron attacks in South Africa, the medical system has not been paralyzed again.
As long as Hong Kong has to adhere to zero COVID, expect things to get worse before they get better. For the rest of the world, 2022 is the beginning of the end of the pandemic. For Hong Kong, it is just the end of the beginning. Xue Da talks about the price of "zeroing" (Original)
Siddharth Sridhar, Clinical Assistant Professor, Department of Microbiology, The University of Hong Kong.
(Photo by Liang Pengwei)
Abandoning "zero" must first increase the vaccination rate
Xue Da pointed out that many parts of the world have gradually abandoned "zeroing" under this situation and began to "coexist" with the virus under the vaccination program. Among them, the United Kingdom has begun to abolish the law that confirmed patients must be quarantined.
He said that the virus will spread in the community for a long time, and individuals must take reasonable protective measures. When there is a large-scale outbreak, social distancing should also be restricted in time.
He analyzed that there are two reasons why Hong Kong has always insisted on "zeroing".
The first is that the vaccination rate of the elderly is seriously lagging behind, which means that the frail group is completely unprotected. Once a major outbreak occurs, it will undoubtedly bring down the medical system.
Because even though Omicron is significantly less lethal, its high infectivity will inevitably lead to a large number of serious cases, requiring oxygen inhalation facilities and intensive care unit beds.
Secondly, because "clearing" is a prerequisite for customs clearance proposed by the mainland, the government has repeatedly reiterated that this is the primary goal of epidemic control.
However, Xue Da said that if customs clearance is based on "clearing", it must be "bubble", because "clearing" cannot be sustainable.
The Hong Kong-Singapore agreement on a "tourism bubble" earlier failed to come to fruition many times, which shows how fragile this foundation is.
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Huang Jielong: Breaking 100 "strong inspections" in a single day will not work
Huang Jielong also posted on social networking sites, questioning how the government investigates the places they have been to in the past 14 days with more than 100 infected people in a single day, and how to explain it to the public one by one: "The press conference will talk about 2-3 of each case. Every minute, 130 cases have to be covered for 5 minutes, and the reporter will not ask questions.” He said that even if he explained it, no newspaper could report it, and no citizen would know it. “So compulsory testing is no longer meaningful, because there is no Some people may be able to see whether they are within the scope of compulsory testing, which means that technically the citizens are unlikely to cooperate.”
When you have 130 cases a day, even if you don't talk about the two methods of dynamic clearing/coldization of big strategies, which are first come first, it seems that technically alone is not feasible?
Huang Jielong
Leung Pak-yin: "Clearing" the new stage of the epidemic is almost unrealistic
Liang Baixian, who is also a member of the task force for the vaccination plan, took the lead in saying yesterday (21st) that with the emergence of the Omicron pandemic, the epidemic has entered a new stage. It is the best policy to formulate a rigorous "vaccine bubble" plan as soon as possible, reopen premises, and encourage citizens to get vaccinated.
It is the best policy to encourage citizens to be vaccinated.
Although it cannot prevent the spread of the epidemic, it can prevent major outbreaks and reduce the number of severely ill people, so as not to overwhelm the medical system.
While controlling the epidemic, we must also take care of the economy and people's livelihood. This is a global epidemic control trend!
The government should take this into consideration!
Liang Baixian
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