Munich virologist with a gloomy prophecy: Omicron is not "mild" - hospitals are facing a new wave

Created: 2022-01-22Updated: 2022-01-22, 12:24 p.m

By: Thomas Eldersch

While some are already talking about the end of the corona pandemic, a Munich virologist warns against taking Omikron lightly.

The news ticker.

• Corona* is causing the incidence and number of cases to skyrocket in Bavaria.

• A Munich virologist warns against dismissing Omikron as "mild".

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Munich - Experts and politicians have been arguing for weeks about how to deal with the omicron wave.

In England, they have now opted for the "open all" option.

In Germany people are still hesitating.

Although Bavaria's Prime Minister Markus Söder (CSU) spoke of small loosening at a press conference after a CSU board meeting on Friday.

More people will soon be able to attend cultural events again.

Fans should also be allowed back into the stadiums.

You have to react to the Corona variant with “a sense of proportion”, according to the head of state.

A dangerous way, finds the Munich virologist Oliver Keppler.

Corona in Bavaria: Omicron rarely leads to severe courses, but is much more contagious

Since the incidence has become obsolete for many decision-makers and scientists, the focus is now on not overloading the healthcare system.

It's a good thing that the omicron variant, which is becoming more and more popular, rarely leads to severe courses.

The hospitals can relax a little after Delta.

The virologist Keppler, from the Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich*, sees a new wave rolling in.

"A trivialization of omicron would therefore be fatal, I consider the classification as 'mild', which is often read, to be extremely dangerous," he told the dpa.

Due to the high average age and the many unvaccinated people, Germany would be in a worse position than other countries.

The Munich virologist Oliver Keppler warns against labeling Omikron as "mild".

© MvP Institute/dpa

In America, one would see what Omikron would do, according to Keppler, who is also the head of the Max von Pettenkofer Institute.

“In the USA we are seeing a monstrous incidence of infection with up to a million new cases of infection every day.

There are more Covid 19 patients in hospitals there than ever before during the pandemic, and the number of deaths has also increased significantly in recent weeks.

Now that's anything but 'mild'.” Preliminary research from the UK and US indicated that widespread omicron infections were about two to three times less likely to result in hospital admissions than delta infections.

"But this new variant creates a much higher infection dynamic with new infection numbers that are ten to twenty times higher than in the delta wave at a comparable time.

Corona in Bavaria: will Germany soon have 400,000 new infections a day?

Germany still has time to react to the situation, according to the virologist.

In the US* and UK, the omicron wave is four to five weeks ahead.

“In Germany, too, we will soon see 200,000 to 400,000 new infections a day.

Without a doubt, this will place a heavy burden on our normal wards in the clinics and limit regular operations.” Keppler continues: “We have around 17 million unvaccinated people, most of whom are probably also not recovered.

Of these, around 2.5 million are over 60, so they have an increased risk of severe Covid 19 courses, which can result in treatment in the intensive care unit.

That distinguishes us from other countries.” 

The Munich virologist also warns of people who declare the pandemic * over.

"Based on the findings of the last two years, however, we have to assume that people who are now infected with omicron and refuse vaccination will already have almost no immune protection against a new SARS-CoV-2 variant by autumn."

However, the expert is happy about the willingness of the citizens to cooperate.

“Fortunately, Germany is more on the cautious side, with rules that are constantly being adapted to the infection dynamics and the burden on the health system.

The discipline among the population with regard to wearing masks is also very good here compared to other countries.”

Corona in Bavaria: Incidence rises above 800

The current infection numbers prove the virologist right.

Bavaria's incidence slipped above the 800 mark on Saturday and is now at 822 (data from January 22, RKI).

According to this, there have been 20,500 new infections and 32 deaths in the Free State in the past 24 hours.

The districts with the highest incidences are all in Upper Bavaria.

Dachau is in first place (1393), followed by Erding (1341) and Bad Tölz-Wolfratshausen (1290).

Munich is not far behind with 1237.7.