If the first round of the presidential election took place this Sunday, Emmanuel Macron would come out on top.
Published on Saturday, the new Ipsos-Sopra Steria poll carried out for Le Monde, the Jean Jaurès Foundation and Cevipof reveals that the Head of State would garner 25% of voting intentions, ahead of Valérie Pécresse (LR) and Marine Le Pen (RN) tied at 15.5%.
In the second round, the outgoing president would win ahead of each of these two candidates, with 54% of the vote against Valérie Pécresse (46%), and 57% against Marine Le Pen (43%).
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Conducted among more than 12,500 people, the survey is along the same lines as many other recent polls.
With however a slight drop for Eric Zemmour (Reconquest), whose result would not exceed 13% in the first round.
Left hesitation
On the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI) would top the voting intentions with 8%, ahead of Yannick Jadot (EELV, 7%), the former minister of François Hollande Christiane Taubira (5%) and Anne Hidalgo (PS , 3.5%).
But this weakness of the scores of the left is coupled with a strong hesitation between its various candidates.
Some 54% of respondents saying they want to vote for Jean-Luc Mélenchon say they are sure of their choice.
The percentage drops to 36% for Yannick Jadot, 30% for Anne Hidalgo and 27% for Christiane Taubira.
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Conversely, 72% of respondents who choose the Le Pen newsletter are sure of their choice. The percentage is 68% for Emmanuel Macron, 63% for Eric Zemmour and 47% for Valérie Pécresse. Potential voters of Emmanuel Macron would go, in case of hesitation, to 40% towards Valérie Pécresse as second choice. Those of Valérie Pécresse would be 43% to opt for the current head of state as a second choice, much more than for Eric Zemmour (23%) or Marine Le Pen (22%). For their part, the respondents attracted by the candidacy of Marine Le Pen are 51% to choose Eric Zemmour as second choice. Those tempted by the latter are 37% to place the RN candidate as second choice.
Voting intentions do not constitute a forecast of the outcome of the vote. They give an indication of the balance of power and dynamics on the day of the survey. This was carried out from January 14 to 17 with a sample of 12,542 people registered on the electoral lists, with a margin of error of between 0.2 and 0.9 points.
