“I already have a shelter in place in case the war comes”

In a waterproof bag, Mariya Yutsenko has prepared her most important documents and those of her seven-year-old daughter. Passports, some cash in euros and hryvnias (Ukrainian currency), a list of telephone numbers and key addresses. “It is not panic, it is anticipation. Especially for my little girl," she emphasizes. He started thinking about an "action plan" in December, when the echo of alerts about another possible Russian invasion of Ukraine increased. A 33-year-old computer engineer, Yutsenko shrugs her shoulders and defines herself as “a practical woman”. "I already have a shelter in place in case the war comes," he explains. It is one of the basements set up as a shelter in his neighbourhood, a neighborhood of apartment blocks near the highway in western Kiev.The battle with Kremlin-backed pro-Russian separatists in the Donbas region takes him far from the vibrant Ukrainian capital, and he says he has grown accustomed to living in a country in conflict. "I doubt that we are going to return to a hot war, but we must be responsible and be prepared," he clarifies.

Russia's constant display of military muscle, its dialectic against Kiev and NATO, and the string of threats of action if the Atlantic Alliance does not sign a guarantee of non-expansion to the East have created a major security crisis in Europe. Ukrainian and American intelligence warn that Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has concentrated more than 100,000 soldiers on the borders with Ukraine and has deployed troops in various maneuvers - from Belarus to the Black Sea - could launch another attack against his neighbor in the West. The aggression, the US has said this week, could be at any time.

The electrical situation, but also the fact that Moscow and Washington — whom the Kremlin has chosen as interlocutor, leaving aside the European Union — have somewhat reduced the rhetoric of confrontation these days and agreed to maintain the diplomatic path to try to cool down The crisis leaves different scenarios open in Putin's possible theater of operations in Ukraine. Military experts and political analysts have ranged from a raid into Donbas to formalize the annexation of the two Ukrainian regions controlled by pro-Russian separatists it has supported since the start of the war eight years ago, to large-scale cyber attacks and other mechanisms to sow chaos and destabilize the government of the former Soviet republic, a key geostrategically for the EU. Or even the invasion from Belarus,or an intervention from Crimea and Donbas to create a corridor from this territory to the Ukrainian peninsula, which was annexed in 2014 with a referendum considered illegal by the international community and where it also has troops.

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Some believe that Putin is waiting and has not yet laid out a plan.

But even if he has, says Maria Avdeeva, director of research at the European Association of Experts, the unknown and the current climate of tension also favor him.

"It's his standard practice, he prefers to leave different possibilities open and keep others guessing what his decision will be," says Avdeeva.

The truth, Kremlin specialists and observers agree, is that the Russian president has several hands of cards.

And also that you could combine them.

Veteran Russian military expert Mikhail Khodorenok believes that an armed invasion of Ukraine is "highly unlikely." "It is possible that the Kremlin is using the current situation and the mobilizations as a negotiating mechanism, but the truth is that the strong reaction of the West and its extremely consolidated position for the first time in several decades exceeded all its expectations," he says. If the situation is reviewed with "political-military realism", he says, it is seen that Russia would not obtain excessive gains from an open war and great losses, he says. "For now, it seems that the Russian leadership has only one option, to withdraw - except from areas near Donbas - save face and spread the word that 'the military maneuvers were successfully completed,'" he says.

In December, Russia presented NATO and Washington with a proposal for a binding agreement in which it demands that the Atlantic Alliance stop its expansion to the East, withdraw its membership invitation from Ukraine and Georgia (former Soviet republics that Moscow considers part of its of influence) and paralyze all military activity in countries like Poland or the Baltics —where it has no bases, but multi-national battalions—, which decades ago were on the same page as Russia as part of the USSR or the Warsaw Pact. Demands that NATO (alliance of which Spain is a member) and the US have already defined as "red lines" that collide with the "sovereign right" of possible future partners.

But while walking the fragile diplomatic path, Russia continues to concentrate troops, recalls veteran analyst Volodímir Fesenko. The Ukrainian intelligence service estimates that Moscow has almost 130,000 soldiers deployed at strike distance, between those stationed on its western borders and maneuvers in Belarus. "With its dialectic and military escalation, Moscow is presenting a very aggressive ultimatum," he says. One of the most plausible scenarios is that of "local operations against Ukraine, for example, open intervention in Donbas", believes the expert. Intelligence sources from Kiev and Washington have warned these days that Russia is preparing a "false flag operation" that would involve "provocations" to heat up the conflict, which is simmering but slowly burning in eastern Ukraine, has claimed some 14,000 lives,according to the UN, and it is far from being solved.

A Ukrainian serviceman patrols a street near frontline with Russia-backed separatists in Verkhnotoretske village in Yasynuvata district, Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine, Saturday, Jan. 22, 2022. Russia on Thursday announced sweeping naval drills in several parts of the world this month , and claimed the West is plotting "provocations" in neighboring Ukraine where the Kremlin has been accused of planning aggressive military action. (AP Photo/Andriy Andriyenko)Andriy Andriyenko (AP)

These "provocations" could give the Kremlin the "excuse", points out María Avdeeva, to intervene in order to "protect" the citizens of the region, mostly Russian-speaking and among whom it has distributed around a million passports in the last years. A guideline similar to the one used in 2008 in Georgia, in the four-day war with Tbilisi, which ended with Russian troops in the separatist regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. "Putin needs to show something to his own population," says the researcher. “The amount of misinformation and manipulative messages now circulating in the Kremlin-controlled media tells us that the situation is extremely serious and the threat is real. The Russian disinformation campaign creates the basis for a possible military invasion even on a large scale”, says Avdeeva,that speaks of a scenario of cyber attacks, but more serious than those suffered by Ukraine last week.

On Friday, Ukrainian military intelligence also claimed that Moscow is sending mercenaries, heavy weapons and tons of fuel to the self-proclaimed "people's republics" of Donetsk and Lugansk.

Unidentified soldiers and defense contractors: a key move from the Kremlin's playbook, which it has already used to invade the Crimean peninsula (the so-called

) and in the initial phases of the conflict in Donbas, Syria and Libya.

“People are ready”

Valeriy Brahinets has no contingency plan. “Coming from Russia nobody can be sure of anything. Psychologically it is not easy for anyone, but people are prepared”, says this 57-year-old businessman. “My plan is to defend my country, I am not going to leave. I would stay to protect the city,” he says in Kiev, where small snowflakes are coloring the city center white. Brahinets is part of that 58% of Ukrainians who are ready to take up arms, according to a recent survey. He says that several of his acquaintances have already signed up for the so-called Territorial Defense Brigades, groups of civilian volunteers who receive instruction and train for combat on weekends. The Ukrainian government plans to establish 150 such battalions. A total of 130,000 people, each with an assigned firearm,according to the Defense Ministry.

Facing the disjointed and poorly equipped forces of 2014, Ukraine has built up its military in recent years and its troops have received training and advice from their Western allies. NATO has made it clear that it will not send forces to the Eastern country in the event of Russian aggression, but Washington has provided funds and has sent defense material. Also, in recent days, the United Kingdom and the Baltic countries. Berlin, which has rejected Kiev's requests for weapons, will send a field hospital, German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said on Saturday. Despite this, the superiority of the Russian army remains enormous.

A full-scale or even a multi-pronged invasion aimed at dividing the country would be devastating. For years, the option that Moscow tries to capture the coastal city of Mariupol and create a corridor from Crimea to Donbas has been considered, so that, in addition, the supply of fresh water to the peninsula, which is limping because the The Kiev government controls the Soviet-era canal that supplied it. Or take Odessa, a city of a million people with a major port, and work to cut off Ukraine from the sea, analysts say.

At the peak of tension, the Ukrainian president, Volodímir Zelenski, has urged this week to remain calm. “Let's take a deep breath. Don't run for buckwheat and matches. Keep a calm head," he said in a message to the country on his social networks. Shortly after, however, the Ukrainian leader spoke of the possibility of Russia invading the city of Kharkiv. “Realistically, I will say that if Russia decides to escalate it will do so in territories where there are historically people who used to have ties to Russia. Kharkiv, which is under the control of the Ukrainian government, could be occupied," he said in an interview with the

. "Russia exports chaos very effectively," remarks analyst Fesenko.

In Kharkiv, about 40 kilometers from Russia, with 1.5 million inhabitants and one of the most important cities in Ukraine, Ihor Vasilievich says that people have become accustomed to living with such a level of tension that this escalation has not high.

At least for him.

"I think nothing will happen," says the 48-year-old waiter.

“Things will remain in this complicated

.

If Russia wanted to attack it would do so by surprise and not showing its troops clearly.

So this is either a bluff or a diversion for something else," he says by phone.

"I do not pay attention to the propaganda of one side or the other," he remarks.

The mother of a Ukrainian soldier remembered her son on Friday at a memorial to the conflict in Kiev. SERGEI SUPINSKY (AFP)

On the table of analysts, the scenario of an invasion from Belarus has been gaining resonance in recent weeks. Until very recently, Kiev did not feel any threat from its neighbor on the northern flank, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba explained in a recent interview, but with the growing closeness of Belarusian authoritarian leader Aleksandr Lukashenko (and his dependence on Moscow ) to Putin, and with the migration crisis orchestrated by Minsk, Ukraine decided to reinforce that border. Now, Russia is preparing joint maneuvers near that border with the Belarusian army in two phases. The last one will end, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, on February 20. A moment that some analysts have defined as "revealing". Moscow could use Belarus as a "platform" against Ukraine, says military analyst Mijaylo Samus.

Veteran Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Friday after a meeting with his US counterpart, Antony Blinken, that Russia "has no plans" to attack Ukraine. Although the Russian government speaks of "serious consequences" if NATO does not meet Russian demands for expansion and presence in areas that, like Ukraine, it considers within its orbit. Putin has threatened to launch “military-technical” measures. That scenario, considers the political scientist Alexei Arbatov, from the Russian Academy of Sciences, refers to the creation and deployment of new weapons and not to the use of troops. "It could deploy short-range missiles, or nuclear weapons in Belarus [which also shares borders with Poland and Lithuania, members of NATO], where hypersonic missiles or medium bombers could also be transferred," Arbatov points out.

Lukasheko, who remains in power with an iron fist, has scheduled a constitutional referendum for the end of February which, among its amendments, eliminates the "neutrality" of the country and its "non-nuclear status".

The authoritarian leader offered, Arbatov recalls, to house Russia's nuclear weapons if NATO places its own in Eastern Europe.

Khrystyna Bubniuk is stressed by reports about climbing.

"So much contradiction... I try to live my normal life, plan spring vacations, think about summer," says the 22-year-old journalist.

His mother, who lives in the west of the country, has asked him to go with her immediately if things get hot: “I don't have a special plan.

If something happens I will continue to work and try to do my best for Ukraine.

It's amazing that we're talking about this in the 21st century."

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