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Yuan Guoyong expects the fifth wave of confirmed cases to grow exponentially, or it may take 2-3 months to be brought under control

2022-01-23T05:32:26.279Z

A serious outbreak broke out in Kwai Chung Village, with a "geometric outbreak" of confirmed cases exceeding 100. Yuan Guoyong, chair professor of the Department of Microbiology of the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong, said in the radio program "Speaking Clearly" that the epidemic may take 2 or 3 years.



A serious outbreak broke out in Kwai Chung Village, with a "geometric outbreak" of confirmed cases exceeding 100.

Yuan Guoyong, chair professor of the Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, HKU, said on the radio program "Speak Clearly" that the epidemic may take 2 to 3 months to be brought under control. He believes that it is still too early to fully implement home isolation in Kwai Chung Village. If the number of confirmed cases has been increasing, it can be considered for implementation.


▼1.22 The first day of compulsory testing for residents of Yat Kwai House, Kwai Chung Village


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Yuan Guoyong said that there are at least two transmission chains in the community, including the pet shop group and the Kwai Chung village group, which has led to a geometric increase in the number of confirmed cases in recent days. It can be controlled in a few months. If the epidemic prevention measures are in place, there will be fewer cases caused by this wave.

Residents of Kwai Chung Village to be tested daily

He pointed out that at present, residents of two buildings in Kwai Chung Village need to be quarantined at home. When asked whether it needs to be extended to the entire estate, he believes that it is still too early to say, but it is recommended that residents take daily tests for the first five days.

Yuan said that the outbreak in Kwai Chung Village originated from cross-infection at the Silka Seaview Hotel in Hong Kong, Yau Ma Tei. A 43-year-old Pakistani woman who was infected with the virus after the quarantine period "leaked" back to the community and infects her family. Her husband went to the garbage disposal of 3 buildings in Kwai Chung Village. It is believed that during the period, the cleaners in the area will be infected, and the cleaners will also touch the garbage cans and elevator buttons on each floor, pass through the garbage room, corridors, etc., and infect at least one cleaning assistant who will work in the entire estate. It is estimated that More seats will be affected gradually.

Yuan Guoyong, chair professor of the Department of Microbiology of the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong, predicts that the epidemic may take 2-3 months to be brought under control.

(file picture)

Consider evacuation if there is vertical transmission

As for whether the home quarantine order needs to be extended, he believes that depending on the confirmed cases, there are currently no problems with buildings and pipelines, but "the number seen that night was very small, and many (residents) may not be willing to open the door, or have gone to the isolation center. It is impossible to obtain the key, and it is impossible to check the pipes of each floor and each direction.” Once the number of cases in a certain block suddenly increases and vertical transmission occurs, the residents of the affected block need to be evacuated.

However, Yuan Guoyong believes that the residents of Kwai Chung Village do not need to panic too much, explaining that the toxicity of Omicron is weak and the virus reproduction rate is three times lower. Get vaccinated as soon as possible.

He also reminded residents to open their windows to increase air circulation, pointing out that confirmed cases are concentrated below the 15th floor.

▼Illustration of group transmission of Pakistani women in quarantine (as shown below)▼


In addition, pet groups have caused the spread of the new coronavirus Delta variant in Hong Kong. Yuan Guoyong said that the transmission chain will only be known after observing from 7 to 14 days, but the outbreak is not as serious as that of Kwai Chung Village.

He believes that when genetic changes occur through pet transmission, the infectivity, toxicity, antigenic changes, and whether it will affect the efficacy of the vaccine are unknown, and whether it will make the virus more toxic cannot be predicted through genetic changes. Therefore, stricter measures should be taken in the early stage of discovery. .

The 17-year-old boy tutor at St. Joseph's English Middle School visited the pet shop

A 17-year-old student of St. Joseph's English Middle School who had not been to a pet store earlier was infected with the Delta virus. He revealed that the patient's tutor had visited the pet store involved, but was not infected. , and then infect the tutoring students.

▼On January 19, AFCD went to pet stores in Hong Kong to kill hamsters▼


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Yuan Guoyong's research: Omicron is less pathogenic than Delta. Injection may weaken the virus and turn it into a cold and rat-killing order|Yuan Guoyong's full text of 14 Q&As warns that one more mutation in the virus may lead to disaster Fear of a world disaster, the government plans to kill hamsters on a large scale

Source: hk1

All news articles on 2022-01-23

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