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Analysis: Biden Ramps Up Pressure as Putin Considers Invading Ukraine

2022-01-24T09:57:56.715Z


Joe Biden is signaling a tougher Western stance in the confrontation with Russia, in a strategy that, however, risks accelerating a dangerous cycle of escalation.


The details about the meeting between Blinken and Lavrov in Geneva 3:35

(CNN) --

President Joe Biden is signaling a tougher Western stance in the standoff with Russia, piling on pressure designed to dissuade Vladimir Putin from invading Ukraine in a strategy that, however, risks accelerating a dangerous cycle of escalation.

The White House pivot comes at a time when Biden is under heavy pressure from Republicans to show more force in the confrontation, and comes after a week in which he was widely criticized for comments that they hastily backed down and that they responded to the Russian leader's hopes of breaking up NATO.

Several Republicans accused the president of showing weakness and appeasing Putin in his talk show appearances on Sunday.

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo struck a shocking tone, describing the Kremlin strongman as a "very talented statesman" who knew how to use power.

  • Blinken says "a single additional Russian force" entering Ukraine would trigger a US response.

The GOP's criticism of Biden ignored the party's tolerance of former President Donald Trump's cowardly deference to the Russian leader, and some were seen as an attempt to use a national security crisis to politically harm Biden ahead of the midterm elections. term in 2022 and the presidential elections in 2024.

A series of moves, comments and signals from Washington and Europe over the weekend underscored the growing danger of the situation at a time when there appears to be little significant diplomatic activity to stem its rapid deterioration.

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The State Department said on Sunday it was clearing non-essential personnel and their family members to leave its embassy in Kiev and warned that in the event of a Russian invasion, their ability to help Americans in the country would be limited. In another significant development, administration officials said the president had discussed options that include deploying 1,000 to 5,000 troops, as well as planes and ships, to US allies in the Baltic states and Eastern Europe. And on CNN's "State of the Union," Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that a single Russian unit entering Ukraine would "trigger a swift, severe, and united response" from the United States and Europe.

Britain, for its part, warned that it had information that Putin was trying to install a puppet leader in place of Ukraine's democratically elected president, Volodymyr Zelensky.

And the German navy chief was forced to resign after making favorable comments towards Russia, in a drama that suggests an effort to cover up deep divisions in the West over how to treat Putin.

A possible US tactical shift

Until now, the US has focused on outlining dire consequences, in the form of debilitating sanctions, which it says would effectively isolate Russia from the Western economy in the event of an invasion. But the latest tactical decisions darkened an already foreboding mood after Biden said last week that he believed the decision to invade Ukraine was a dilemma unique to Putin. The troop deployment talks were also cast as a direct challenge to the Russian leader, while appearing designed to protect Biden's political flank at home.

Although the State Department said it was acting out of an abundance of caution, the embassy downsizing is also a classic act of diplomatic symbolism denoting a worsening crisis.

The officials said any move to bolster NATO's flanks would be aimed at "providing deterrence and reassurance to allies."

It was not immediately clear whether the deployments would come before or after any Russian invasion of Ukraine.

But even talking about such measures puts Putin on notice that the entire premise of his Ukraine hostage-taking -- forcing NATO to withdraw its forces from ex-Soviet states -- would backfire.

  • Kremlin plans to install pro-Russian leader in Ukraine, UK Foreign Office says

However, the increasingly aggressive Western tactic is also a risk. It could convince Putin that he is correct in warning that Russian security is threatened by the West. At the very least, it could give him a propaganda pretext to invade Ukraine. And Biden must consider whether high-profile troop deployments ahead of an invasion that the United States says could come at any time could make it even more difficult for Putin to back down without securing a tangible reward for his troop surge.

The latest US signs came after Russia amassed more than 100,000 troops on Ukraine's borders and began a new deployment of forces in Belarus, further encircling its former Soviet client state, and after the government of Kiev said that Moscow would soon have enough forces for a full-scale invasion.

But Biden's latest moves will not satisfy Republicans, who have called for a much more aggressive US mobilization and are using the crisis to portray Biden as a weak leader.

High Republican office: "Weakness invites aggression"

Representative Michael McCaul, the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, urged the White House on Sunday to use sanctions against Russia before any invasion, as requested by the Ukrainian government.

The 5 most powerful armies on the planet in 2022 0:47

"If we don't do something strong right now, I'm afraid he's going to invade Ukraine, which will have global ramifications here," the Texas Republican said on CBS's "Face the Nation."

But Blinken rejected that approach, warning that it would lessen the chances that concern about the consequences could influence Putin's decision.

"When it comes to sanctions, the purpose of those sanctions is to deter Russian aggression," Blinken said on "State of the Union."

"And so if they are activated now, the deterrent effect is lost."

McCaul also lambasted Biden over the administration's chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan last summer, saying he had convinced the Russian leader that the United States would not defend his interests.

"I think this all started ... with Afghanistan, and the unconditional surrender to the Taliban when they saw weakness. Weakness invited aggression," McCaul said on CBS. "Now we are seen as weak ... because of President Biden." (The administration argues that the evacuation from Afghanistan was a great success, but the initial debacle shocked US allies, caused some to question America's overall commitment, and helped lower approval ratings for the President). The administration counters GOP criticism by saying a deal the Trump administration struck with the Taliban gave it no choice but to leave the country.

A Ukrainian soldier takes up a gunner's position in a front-line trench on Friday, January 21.

(Photo: Timothy Fadek/Redux for CNN)

Pompeo insisted on Fox that the previous administration had earned Putin's respect by being strong, the result being that he "didn't use coercive activity to try to push NATO back."

It is true that some members of the Western alliance increased military spending after Trump's complaints that the United States was being shortchanged by its allies, although the perception of a growing Russian threat and his antipathy to the idea of ​​​​defending allies also contributed.

And the former president did allow US lethal aid to be sent to Ukraine, unlike former President Barack Obama.

But his desire for Putin's approval often seemed to undermine his own administration's policy.

His withdrawal from Syria, constant berating of NATO allies and denial of Russian meddling in the elections furthered Putin's foreign policy goals.

Pompeo: We must 'respect' Putin

Yet Pompeo also offered effusive praise for the Russian leader's intellect that seemed odd considering he is a US adversary currently threatening an armed takeover of a Washington-backed democracy.

"We have respect for him and his power. He is a very talented statesman," Pompeo said on Fox. "He has many gifts. He was a KGB agent, for God's sake. He knows how to use power, we should respect that."

The idea that the United States should respect a leader who rules with an iron fist, crushed democracy and press freedom, jailed political opponents, and presides over a corrupt economy that empowers oligarchs is remarkable coming from a former secretary. of State.

Foreign policy pundits are often divided on whether Putin is playing a heavy hand with aplomb or whether his international gangsterism is more the act of a weak leader terrorized by legitimate opposition and forced from power.

It is also questionable whether massing troops on the border of a vulnerable democracy and making extravagant demands on NATO is the behavior of a "talented statesman".

And any argument that Putin was cowed by Trump from using coercion against the West is confounded by US intelligence assessments that Moscow interfered in the US election.

The then-president shocked the US espionage community by disproving assessments of Putin's meddling in 2016 when he appeared side by side with him at a news conference in Helsinki.

Cyberattacks emanating from Russian soil also occurred throughout the Trump presidency, including Operation SolarWinds that compromised US federal agencies when the former president was in office.

Supposed respect for the United States did not stop Russian agents from using a biological weapon on British soil to poison a defector, according to the UK government.

The GOP's willingness to criticize Biden, despite these huge blemishes on Trump's record, shows that for many of its members, with a few exceptions like McCaul, politics takes precedence over national security in the pursuit of future power. .

That approach only widens the divisions Putin leans on as he seeks to tarnish American prestige.

Jim Sciutto, Kylie Atwood, and Natasha Bertrand contributed to this report.

BidenUkraineVladimir Putin

Source: cnnespanol

All news articles on 2022-01-24

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