The Omicron variant virus detonated the fifth wave of the epidemic. At the beginning of the month, Hong Kong tightened social distancing measures again and fell into an "infinite loop".
The SAR currently follows the mainland's "dynamic clearing" epidemic prevention policy, that is, when local cases occur, the epidemic will be quickly extinguished through comprehensive prevention and control measures. In this process, the lives of the general public will inevitably be greatly affected.
On the other hand, some experts have recently publicly stated that Omicron has a low lethality and has a chance to become similar to influenza, and the virus spreads very fast, and the goal of clearing it seems unsustainable. It is believed that under certain conditions, it needs to be Consider other directions, such as "living with the virus."
This has once again sparked social discussion: in the current continuous cycle, the mode of restricting gatherings and closing down areas is greatly tightened as soon as there is an infection case. Is it a long-term and appropriate epidemic prevention policy?
Based on the analysis of several politicians, it is true that the recent Omicron epidemic will make people question whether the "zero" goal is realistic.
Some Legislative Council members pointed out that the hidden social cost behind "coexistence" is that the society as a whole "eliminates the weak and retains the strong." Many infirm people who have not received injections will die, and they ask whether this is what the general public wants to see.
▼The inspection situation of Kwai Chung Village closed area on January 24▼
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Yuan Guoyong refers to "zeroing" as a means: the new crown virus will never leave
After inspecting the Yat Kwai House in Kwai Chung Village, where the epidemic broke out last Thursday, Yuen Guoyong, an expert advisor to the government, said that if the government's case tracking work can "tie" with the Omicron virus transmission speed, there is still a chance to return to an acceptable "dynamic". "Clear" state, but if you really can't catch up with the virus development speed, you may actually need to consider other possibilities.
Later, the Department of Microbiology of the University of Hong Kong, to which Yuan Guoyong belonged, found that the virus replication ability and pathogenicity of the Omicron variant virus were lower than other variants of the new coronavirus, and the replication efficiency in human lung epithelial cells was much higher than that of the original strain (ie. Wild type), Alpha, Beta, and Delta are low, and it is expected that Omicron will continue to follow this evolutionary trajectory and become a mild coronavirus that only causes the common cold.
In his meeting with reporters last Sunday, Yuan Guoyong further pointed out that "blindly clearing the zero" itself is useless, and clearing the zero is just a "means" to buy time for everyone to get vaccinated, but the vaccination rate in Hong Kong has not risen fast enough in the past period of time.
But in any case, every time there is a virus infection, it is necessary to go to great lengths to close all business premises and restrict dine-in. This is not a "sustainable policy" (sustainable policy).
He even said frankly: "The new crown virus will always be with us and will not leave."
Kong Fanyi, a clinical professor at the Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Hong Kong University, also told Hong Kong 01 earlier that although Omicron has become a mainstream virus, its disease is milder than that of Delta, with lower complications and mortality. After multiple people are vaccinated with the third dose of vaccine, herd immunity can be achieved; in the future, there is a chance that the new coronavirus will be prevalent in winter like the flu.
Yuan Guoyong has said many times in recent days that "blindly clearing up zero" is no longer in line with reality.
(File photo/Photo by Liao Yanxiong)
Politicians: The government has failed to justify the draconian measures
Some politicians said privately that the remarks of experts such as Yuan Guoyong and Kong Fanyi just summed up the opinions of many citizens at present. The new wave of Omicron epidemic has really caused a great response in the society, which directly makes people question the effectiveness of the current policy: First, Citizens' lives are greatly affected, and they can no longer meet and exercise. Many industries have lost their money and are tired of the epidemic prevention policy. Second, citizens are prone to impressions, "Obviously we abide by the epidemic prevention rules, but the microphone is also explosive, and the ban is prohibited. What are you doing?" It is difficult for the government to explain the rationale for tightening epidemic prevention policies and strict social distancing measures.
Another person said that Omicron's transmission power is too strong, even if there is zero local diagnosis for a while, this "fortress" is very fragile and can be easily broken.
And once there is an epidemic, like Kwai Chung Village, the outbreak will increase exponentially within a few days, and the government will have to spend a lot of time closing the building for several days.
The person also pointed out that he understands that the SAR government wants to clear customs with the mainland, and it is derailed from the mainland's epidemic prevention policy, or has a "politically incorrect" perception.
But the fact is in front of you: "𠵱The family's set (epidemic prevention policy) is really starting to work, at least in Hong Kong."
▼The building where the confirmed cases lived on January 23 (mandatory testing building)▼
Ge Peifan asked three questions: Is society willing to pay the price of "coexistence"?
Ge Peifan, a member of the Legislative Council of the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong, said that the opinions of experts will of course be respected, but he believes that three questions need to be considered before discussing this issue: 1. If the citizens are to face the virus for a long time, are they willing to see a large number of citizens, especially if the Frail seniors suffer from severe illness and die, especially since the current vaccination rate is still far from 90%, and the elderly over 80 years old is particularly low.
"One day (vaccination rate) can't reach 90%. Many citizens will face the risk of severe illness. Is the social system really changing to "eliminate the weak and keep the strong"?"
Second, if the Hong Kong government decides to coexist with the virus, will the medical system have enough capacity to carry these sick patients? Seeing that so many elderly people are not getting injections, "It can be expected that this group of people will occupy a lot of ICU (intensive care unit) positions, and others It is also a matter of realistic and objective conditions.” Third, when the domestic demand for dynamic clearing is still ongoing, if Hong Kong does not integrate with the standard, there is basically no hope of customs clearance, the tourism industry will continue to freeze, and Chinese and Hong Kong families will continue to be separated from each other. Is this what the public wants to see?
Advocate to consider a more active "guzhen needle"
Ge Peifan pointed out that after all, this is a question of trade-offs, whether citizens are willing to bear the price behind changing the policy.
She admitted frankly that if the vaccination rate could reach more than 90%, the objective conditions would be very different, but not at present. "If 20% of the public refuse to be vaccinated, and the other 80% of the public will pay the price for the decision of the two adults." She believes that if If the government wants to advance the discussion, the first thing is to think about how to increase the vaccination rate more aggressively. For example, some European countries have ordered mandatory injections. If there is no medical certificate, they will be fined or otherwise punished. The government can at an appropriate time. Start thinking.
Di Zhiyuan: The Hong Kong side should report to the mainland that it may not be feasible to completely clear the opinions
Di Zhiyuan, chairman of New Thinking and member of the Legislative Council in the social welfare sector, said that he is open to the discussion.
He mentioned that Omicron has a very strong communication power, and it cannot even be completely cleared in the mainland.
If you continue to tighten social distancing as soon as the virus spreads, you will not be able to clear it, and the citizens will be bored and have nothing to do with it.
"At present, we really don't see 100% feasibility of 'zeroing'. Even China, the world's most stringent epidemic prevention, is the same."
He suggested that experts should think carefully and provide scientific assessments to determine what the risks the society may face after "coexisting with the virus", and how far behind the vaccination rate is to "reach the standard"; A broader point of view can also be presented for discussion.
"It's not that we refuse to do (clearing), everyone in Hong Kong works hard, everyone wears masks, pays attention to personal hygiene, and cooperates with building closures and quarantines, but the reality will still explode."
Lin Zhexuan: Even if it is weak, it is still stronger than the flu. It is not the time to talk about "coexistence"
Legislative Council member Lin Zhexuan questioned whether the overall impact of Omicron on the human body is smaller than that of other new coronavirus strains, but whether it is weak enough to "coexist". At present, data from most areas show that the mortality rate of Omicron is still 0.1 Between % and 0.3%, it is still higher than that of influenza, and its transmissibility is also stronger than that of influenza, and the impact on the frail people who have not been vaccinated is more obvious.
He believes that now is not the right time to consider "coexistence with the virus".
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