Italy enters the most complicated election of the President of the Republic

Italy today enters the most important institutional ceremony of the Republic to elect the person who will replace the current head of state, Sergio Mattarella. The elected, with a mandate of seven years and who will come out of a daily vote that will only conclude when the necessary quorum is reached, will have to pilot from the Quirinal Palace a crucial period in the history of Italy: consolidate the enormous reforms launched by the current prime minister, Mario Draghi, and to promote with European recovery funds —more than 200,000 million euros— the modernization of a country whose clock stopped more than three decades ago.

The battle to appoint the new president - there are no official candidates, everything is cooked through calls - is the most complicated in decades. The main candidate, Mario Draghi, would clearly be a notable figure for the job. But his election would leave the prime minister's seat vacant. An almost impossible void to replace with a name capable of maintaining the current unity government. If Draghi goes to the Quirinal, the early elections will be closer and closer. But if it doesn't go, the turbulence and bad mood in certain power groups that it could generate invite us to think of a similar situation. So far, none of the names that the parties have put on the table is convincing or allows us to think of a way out of the mess. Because,The voices are growing that defend imploring the current head of state to extend his term for a while in order to allow Draghi to finish his and be elected to the post after the next legislative elections.

A political conclave.

Voting to elect the new President of the Republic begins today at three in the afternoon. The ceremony is one of the most spectacular of the Italian institutions, because it brings together all the parliamentarians, senators for life and regional representatives in the Chamber of Deputies. All under rules that allow to extend

the votes to reach an agreement and in which the necessary quorum decreases as the election of the candidate progresses unsuccessfully.

In the first three, two thirds are needed: that is, 673 out of 1,008 parliamentarians.

From the fourth, serve only half plus one.

Normally, this is when the candidates to consider begin to appear.

Beforehand, the so-called flag candidates are usually launched, which serve to buy time while the negotiations progress in parallel in a private room.

The name of the chosen one does not usually sound in the first ballots. Francesco Cossiga, Minister of the Interior during the kidnapping of Aldo Moro and Prime Minister from 1979 to 1980, is one of the two cases that contradict this unwritten rule (752 votes out of 977 voters). The other is Carlo Azeglio Ciampi (1999-2006), the model now invoked to promote Draghi: he was a banker and he was prime minister and president almost without interruption. The rest, like Mattarella, Giorgio Napolitano or Oscar Luigi Scalfaro (16th vote), stuck after many attempts. This circumstance makes the parties take the first votes like a poker game and propose extravagant names.

The Pope of Italy.

Mario Draghi is the ideal profile for the presidency of the Republic. His international prestige, his apparent political neutrality and his age (74 years) make him a safe bet. Nobody has any doubt that he would be the best candidate – he has not applied, but when asked by journalists he has not denied his interest. Another thing is that it suits certain parties or that his election could trigger a situation that is too explosive for Italy. Draghi's main problem is Draghi himself. Never in the history of Italy has a Prime Minister passed directly to the Presidency of the Republic. And the system does not yet seem ready to do so.

If the former president of the European Central Bank were elected, something that is in his deepest wishes, the presidency of the Council of Ministers would remain vacant at a critical moment for the country. Draghi must leave ready a succession that convinces all the parties that now make up the Unity Executive (all except the Brothers of Italy). And it is not an easy thing. The Prime Minister would like a profile like that of Daniele Franco (current Minister of Economy) or Vittorio Colao (Minister of Technological Innovation). But in the parties they consider that they could become Draghi's straw men in the Government.

If Draghi were to become President of the Republic, the shadow of early elections would begin to be a fairly tangible fact. However, the idea is increasingly spreading that if he did not succeed, the legislature would not be guaranteed either. The next few months will be difficult. It is possible that some parties decide to leave the majority Executive to mark their own profile and start trench warfare. In this scenario, nobody believes that Draghi has an interest in continuing in the Chigi Palace. So the dilemma is easy: preserve the value that Draghi brings to the institutions by taking him to the Quirinal or bet on a premature burning as prime minister.

Berlusconi, a step to the side to dictate the line.

Silvio Berlusconi, three times Prime Minister of Italy, owner of Mediaset and one of the richest men in Europe, promised his mother before he died that one day he would be President of the Republic.

And it can be said that

has tried it by land, sea and with an unusual and surreal electoral campaign.

The problem is that not even his people believed that a man with pending trials, firmly convicted of tax fraud and with a history of scandals and political mismanagement was the one to fill the position of Italy's moral guide.

On Saturday afternoon he resigned.

But he died killing and announced that he will not support Draghi.

Something that complicates the game even more.

Berlusconi now wants to be the

of the game and will not accept any name proposed by his right-wing coalition partners.

rightly considers that the majority of the exponents of that orbit have been political creatures of his own or, directly, fellows of his. So the owner of Mediaset could insist on a name that is off the radar just so his pride gets as little damage as possible from this contest.

Mattarella or that everything remains the same.

President Mattarella showed some photographs on Saturday afternoon of his office full of cardboard boxes with his things.

His term expires on February 3 – if there was no relief on that date, he would provisionally exercise the president of the Senate – and he has already begun to make the move.

He doesn't want to repeat.

However, his environment has already said from the beginning that if the situation were critical, the risk premium would skyrocket - in recent days it has begun to rise - he could think about it.

This was the move that happened to his predecessor, Giorgio Napolitano.

And it is what many parliamentarians are beginning to ask loudly to ensure that the legislature continues at least until September, when they ensure the collection of the pension.

Mattarella, in a scenario of chaos, is trading on the rise these days.

A game in which Salvini can be decisive

The game to elect the next President of the Republic is more open than ever.

Especially, after the withdrawal of Silvio Berlusconi, who will try to condition the vote of the right-wing coalition (Forza Italia, Brothers of Italy and the League) as much as possible.

However, a manager could be decisive for Mario Draghi to be chosen, as long as the benefit is immediate.

Matteo Salvini has opened up in recent hours to elect the current prime minister to succeed Sergio Mattarella as Head of State.

However, it would require that, at a minimum, La Liga be guaranteed ownership of the Ministry of the Interior.

A position that Salvini himself already occupied in the first government presided over by Giuseppe Conte and that, in an election year, would guarantee him a fabulous exposure.

In the event that the Draghi option succeeds, however, Salvini would have to break the line dictated by Berlusconi in his withdrawal, when he made it clear that the current prime minister must continue in his post until the end of the legislature.

The other names used by the right are those of the president of the Senate, Maria Elisabetta Caselati, or that of the former president of the Chamber of Deputies, Pier Ferdinando Casini.

All of them would hardly be acceptable to Berlusconi.

In this part of the match, the leader of Italia Viva, Matteo Renzi, could be crucial.

The former prime minister still retains a large group of deputies and senators that he could use in what would be his last major political move.

In recent hours, there have been rapprochements with the right and Renzi could try to find a way out of his delicate political situation in exchange for support for one of the conservative candidates.

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