Guide to preparing your home for winter storms 2:17
(CNN)
Confidence continues to grow that a bomb cyclone with hurricane intensity, several-inch snow accumulation and blizzard-like conditions will hit major cities in the Northeast this weekend.
"Models continue to show a '
nor'easter
' system with its greatest potential for the weekend, primarily Friday through Saturday," explained CNN Meteorologist Brandon Miller.
A bomb cyclone could bring a powerful nor'easter to northeastern cities this weekend
There are still questions about how much snow will accumulate and how extreme the winds will be.
"A lot of snow is more likely in parts of New England," the Weather Prediction Center reported Wednesday morning.
"Heavy snow is still possible further south along the East Coast. Including major metropolitan areas on I-95 from New York City to Washington City. But, that's more uncertain at this time." moment," he added.
What is expected of the cyclonic bomb
The storm is expected to form in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Georgia.
It is then anticipated to rapidly strengthen ––a process known as bombogenesis–– overnight Friday and continue up the East Coast on Saturday.
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"Guidelines indicate this storm could undergo bombogenesis, meaning its central pressure drops at least 24 mb in 24 hours," the Boston Weather Service Bureau said, referring to the unit of pressure known as millibars.
"This creates a very narrow pressure gradient, which means strong and potentially damaging winds will accompany the snow."
"This storm is likely to strengthen at a rate and intensity equivalent to only the most powerful hurricanes. So the high-end potential of this storm cannot be underestimated. But with northeasterly winds, as in real estate It all comes down to location, location, location," Miller explained.
Uncertainty
Forecast uncertainty is quite common more than 48 hours before a storm forms, as the Boston National Weather Service Office highlighted on Twitter on Wednesday.
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"Well, the model's average margin of error over this time range (3 days) is over 150 miles! For example, where will the rain/snow line be set? 150 miles could vary from Cape Cod, Massachusetts , to New Haven, Connecticut. So it's still too early."
Both forecast models anticipate this strengthening.
But, their storm tracks on the East Coast are different, which changes what people might expect from Washington to Boston.
"For those who have been following this, I know you've heard it repeated ad nauseam, but the key message remains the same: Guidance is trending in favor of a major storm, but the exact track remains uncertain," the statement said. Boston Weather Service Office. "This track is what will tell us exactly where the biggest concerns are for snow, wind and coastal flooding," he added.
A "track farther from the coast will decrease the amount of snow, while a track closer to the coast will increase the amount of snow and if the low is close enough to the coast, a winter mixture will be possible for some sections of the East Coast (this seems less and less likely)," the New York office of the National Weather Service said.
Blizzard conditions and coastal flooding from bomb cyclone
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1:22
Although it is too early to determine exact totals, it appears the storm will affect all metropolitan areas along Interstate 95 from Virginia to Maine beginning Friday through Saturday.
Major cities like Philadelphia, New York and Boston could get a foot of snow, or much more.
Winds of 50 miles per hour or higher are likely throughout the Northeast, with even higher gusts, especially along the eastern coasts.
These strong winds combined with snow will create blizzard conditions.
"A closer track would also mean stronger winds and the potential for blizzard conditions near the coast," the Weather Service Office in Philadelphia said.
A blizzard occurs when snow combines with wind gusts of more than 56 km/h for more than three hours and creates visibility of less than 400 meters.
"Significant coastal impacts are possible in the Northeast, including coastal flooding and beach erosion," the forecast center said.
The stronger the storm, the greater the surge of water along the coast.
Time also matters a lot.
"Coastal flooding is a concern thanks to astronomically high tides on Saturday," explained the Boston Weather Service Office.
"The combination of strong northeasterly winds and high seas will bring storm surge which, if it coincides with high tide, will cause minor to moderate coastal flooding."
time matters
The difference in storm timing – even as little as six hours – would make a big difference in the impact on coastal flooding and erosion concerns.
One thing is for sure: forecasters will be glued to computer forecast model runs all this Wednesday.
"Today's trends will certainly be important," the Philadelphia weather bureau said.
"Sampling will improve steadily, and 'big picture' model solutions should start to converge in the next 12 to 24 hours."
In simple terms: we will know more details this Thursday.
bomb cycloneNortheastwinter storm
