Part of an Elon Musk rocket will collide with the Moon after going out of control

Space junk isn't like the kind you sweep under the rug and forget about; Forces you to follow its path to avoid a scare. In doing so, astronomers have calculated that an Elon Musk spacecraft module will collide with the Moon within weeks after several years in a chaotic orbit. The rocket, which served to put a US satellite into orbit that monitors the Earth's climate, has been out of control between the Moon and Earth since February 2015. When it crashes into the lunar surface, it will be the first time a human object has unintentionally impacted the satellite.

After launching the Deep Space Climate Observatory, the second stage of the Falcon 9 rocket had already traveled too far and did not have the necessary fuel to return to Earth, where it would disintegrate against the atmosphere. It also did not have enough power to escape the gravity of the Earth-Moon system, so the module was trapped and out of control. Now, according to

, a space object control specialist, Bill Gray, has calculated that this module

the Moon on January 5 and will fall on March 4 against this small world, which has no atmospheric shield to protect it.

However, these calculations will have to be adjusted when it approaches the Moon again on February 7.

After passing by, he will return to hit her on her hidden face in five weeks.

Other independent experts have confirmed the validity of the estimate.

"This is the first time that something like this has happened, to our knowledge," says astronomer Julia de León, an expert in tracking space objects.

“Surely there has been some small impact that we are not aware of, because there is already a lot of space debris, but it is quite controlled.

Never something like this, so big and out of control”, adds the scientist from the Institute of Astrophysics of the Canary Islands.

The Falcon 9 second stage tank weighs about four tons and will impact at almost 9,300 kilometers per hour.

Image of the recent launch of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, in Florida, on January 18. Tim Shortt (AP)

That accident will cause an impact that, looking for the positive side, can be interesting from the scientific point of view.

When they collide, they raise particles and scrape the surface, which gives the option to study two aspects, according to De León, that are of no interest on Earth.

"It allows us to analyze what the impacts are like in different gravities, how the particles behave in that different environment," says the scientist, "and it also helps to see a little beyond the surface, by altering it you access fresher material."

NASA deliberately did just this in 2009, launching the Lcross probe to detect water under lunar dust, among other measurements.

Unfortunately for scientific curiosity, and always according to current calculations, the next impact will not be seen because the probes that study our satellite will not be aware of that point, near the equator on the far side, when it occurs.

Normally, a certain amount of fuel is reserved to be able to minimally redirect the different phases of the rockets that are not designed to return safely or their trajectory is calculated so that they shoot out into solar orbit or fall in a controlled manner into the Earth's atmosphere.

"These scares are going to get worse, the more objects, the more chance of failures and collisions"

Julia de Leon, IAC

"It is likely that there was some miscalculation in this case, but these scares are going to get worse," warns De León.

The progressive increase of actors in the space race, both nations and private companies, is rapidly aggravating the pressing problem of space junk.

In recent months alone, incidents of dangerous objects in out-of-control orbit have multiplied, and Elon Musk's company has not been oblivious to these incidents, by pure logic, given its muscle to serve private and government space interests, such as carrying astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS).

In May, China uncontrollably dropped debris from a rocket it used to launch its space station into orbit.

The scrap metal was of such a size that it would have caused a disaster when it hit the ground in an inhabited area (for a few hours it was calculated that it could fall on Spanish peninsular territory).

And although it finally fell in the Indian Ocean, it provoked a complaint from NASA for its "irresponsible" attitude.

In November, Russia tried to shoot down one of its old satellites with a missile, triggering a deluge of 1,500 pieces of scrap metal that endangered ISS astronauts.

Shortly before the end of the year, Starlink satellite devices, also owned by Musk, endangered the Chinese space station, which allowed the Asian power to return the American complaint from a few months earlier.

Private mega-constellations of communication systems will be a permanent source of problems of this type.

back to the moon soon

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 19, 2022

"All this that is happening is a bit of a pirate, that everyone can do what they want in space and put up with the rest," criticizes De León.

Pollution is caused that harms astronomy, it interferes with the search for dangerous asteroids and "the more objects, the more likely failures and collisions."

"Nothing will be done until we have a disaster, something serious," laments the scientist.

Musk tweeted a few days ago about "returning to the Moon soon", along with a photo of one of his rockets, but he was not referring to this accidental crash on March 4, but that SpaceX will be the one to take the next astronauts to step on the grayish powder.

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