The great military deployment of Russia near the border with Ukraine 1:37
(CNN) --
Tensions between Ukraine and Russia are at their highest in years, with reports of a Russian troop buildup near the border fueling fears about Moscow's intentions of an invasion in the coming weeks or months. .
Ukraine warns that Russia is trying to destabilize the country ahead of a planned military invasion.
Western powers have repeatedly warned Russia in recent weeks against making any more aggressive moves against Ukraine.
There will be a "bloody massacre" if Russia invades us, warns Ukraine's defense minister
The Kremlin denies planning an attack and argues that NATO's support for Ukraine — including increased arms supplies and military training — constitutes a growing threat on Russia's western flank.
The picture is complicated, but this is what we know so far.
What is the current situation at the border?
The United States and NATO have called troop movements and concentrations in and around Ukraine "unusual."
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As many as 100,000 Russian troops have remained gathered on the border with Ukraine, despite warnings from US President Joe Biden and European leaders about dire consequences if Putin goes ahead with an invasion.
And US intelligence results have estimated that Russia could begin a military offensive in Ukraine "as soon as early 2022."
Speaking alongside his Ukrainian counterpart in Kyev on January 19, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that Russia had "increased its threats and amassed nearly 100,000 forces on Ukraine's border, which it could double in a relatively short time.
Before the end of 2021, satellite photos revealed that Russian material — including self-propelled guns, main battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles — was moving in a training camp some 300 kilometers from the border.
The latest intelligence assessment from the Ukrainian Defense Ministry says that Russia has now deployed more than 127,000 troops near Ukraine, including some 21,000 air and sea personnel, transferred more operational Iskander tactical missiles to the border and increased its intelligence activity against the country.
The assessment came after three rounds of diplomatic talks between Russia and the West aimed at de-escalating the crisis failed to reach a resolution.
US officials have said a Russian invasion of Ukraine could happen anytime in the next month or two.
Many of Russia's military bases are located in the west of the vast country, where any threat to Russia is most likely, history suggests, to come from.
Russia's Defense Ministry has said it is holding "regular" winter military exercises in its southern region, parts of which border Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Lugansk, bordering Russia, an area known as Donbas, has been under the control of Russian-backed separatists since 2014. Russian forces are also present in the area, to which Ukraine is attached. referred to as "temporarily occupied territories", although Russia denies this.
The front lines of the conflict have hardly moved in five years, but small-scale clashes and sniper attacks are frequent.
Russia was angered when Ukrainian forces first deployed a Turkish-made combat drone in October to attack a position of pro-Russian separatists.
Russia also has forces numbering in the tens of thousands at its huge naval base in Crimea, the Ukrainian territory it annexed in 2014. The Crimean peninsula, located south of the rest of Ukraine, is now connected by a road bridge with mainland Russia.
Russian soldiers patrol an area near a Ukrainian military unit in Perevalnoye, outside Simferopol, Crimea, on March 20, 2014.
What is the history of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia?
Tensions between Ukraine and Russia, both former Soviet states, escalated in late 2013 over a historic political and trade deal with the European Union.
After then-pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych called off the talks — apparently under pressure from Moscow — violent protests erupted in Kyiv for weeks.
Then, in March 2014, Russia annexed Crimea, an autonomous peninsula in southern Ukraine with strong Russian loyalties, on the pretext that it was defending its interests and those of Russian-speaking citizens. First, thousands of Russian-speaking soldiers, nicknamed "little green men" and later recognized by Moscow as Russian soldiers, poured into the Crimean peninsula. Within days, Russia completed its annexation in a referendum that was dismissed as illegitimate by Ukraine and most of the world.
Shortly afterward, pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine's Donetsk and Lugansk regions declared independence from Kyiv, sparking months of heavy fighting.
Despite the fact that Kyiv and Moscow signed a peace agreement in Minsk in 2015, with the mediation of France and Germany, there have been repeated violations of the ceasefire.
According to the latest UN figures, there have been more than 3,000 conflict-related civilian deaths in eastern Ukraine since March 2014.
The European Union and the United States imposed a series of measures in response to Russia's actions in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, including economic sanctions targeting specific individuals, entities and sectors of the Russian economy.
Ukrainian soldiers prepare to support the withdrawal of troops on February 19, 2015 in Artemivsk, Ukraine.
The Kremlin accuses Ukraine of stoking tensions in the east of the country and violating the Minsk ceasefire agreement.
What is Russia's position?
The Kremlin has repeatedly denied that Russia plans to invade Ukraine, insisting Russia poses no threat to anyone and troop movements across its own territory should not be cause for alarm.
Moscow sees NATO's growing support for Ukraine — in terms of weapons, training and personnel — as a threat to its own security.
He also accused Ukraine of increasing its own troop numbers in preparation for an attempt to retake the Donbas region, a charge Ukraine has denied.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has called for specific legal agreements that preclude any further expansion of NATO eastward to Russia's borders, saying the West has failed to honor its earlier promised guarantees.
Putin also said NATO's deployment of sophisticated weapons, such as missile systems, to Ukraine would cross a "red line" for Russia, amid concerns in Moscow that Ukraine is being increasingly armed by powers. of NATO.
Russian President Vladimir Putin watches the joint exercises of the North Sea and Black Sea fleets from a cruise ship in the Black Sea off the coast of Crimea on January 9, 2020.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in November that the United States and other NATO member states were already supplying weapons and military advisers to Ukraine.
"And all this, of course, leads to a further aggravation of the situation on the border line," he said.
If the US and its NATO allies do not change course on Ukraine, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned that Moscow has "the right to choose how to ensure its legitimate security interests."
What is the position of Ukraine?
The Ukrainian government insists that Moscow cannot prevent Kyiv from strengthening ties with NATO if it so chooses.
"Russia cannot prevent Ukraine from moving closer to NATO and has no right to have a say in relevant discussions," the Foreign Ministry said in a statement to CNN, responding to Russian calls for NATO to stop its expansion into Russia. the East.
"Any Russian proposal to discuss with NATO or the United States the supposed guarantees that the Alliance will not expand to the East is illegitimate," he added.
Ukraine insists that Russia seeks to destabilize the country, and the country's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, recently declared that a coup plot involving Ukrainians and Russians had been uncovered.
Urania's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has warned that a planned coup could be part of Russia's plan ahead of a military invasion.
"The external military pressure goes hand in hand with the internal destabilization of the country," he said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky delivers a speech during his visit to a frontline in Ukraine's Donbas region on October 14, 2021.
Tensions between the two countries have been exacerbated by a worsening Ukrainian energy crisis, which Kyiv believes Moscow has provoked on purpose.
At the same time, the Zelensky government faces challenges on many fronts.
The government's popularity has stalled amid multiple domestic political challenges, including a third wave of Covid-19 infections in recent weeks and a struggling economy.
Many people are also unhappy that the government has not yet delivered the benefits it promised or put an end to the conflict in the east of the country.
Anti-government protests broke out in Kyiv.
In a videotaped speech on January 19, Zelensky urged the Ukrainian people to "calm down" amid growing unrest over a possible Russian invasion.
"We are aware of everything, we are prepared for everything," he said, adding that he "sincerely believes" that this year "will pass without a war" with Russia.
Kuleba also tried to reassure Ukrainians who fear the United States, its NATO allies and Russia might leave Kiev out of the discussions.
"Not making decisions on Ukraine without Ukraine is a principle we adhere to," he said.
What does NATO say?
Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said "Russia will pay a heavy price" if it invades Ukraine, a NATO partner, again.
NATO and Russia reinforce their deployments and tension increases in Ukraine 2:47
"We have a wide range of options: economic sanctions, financial sanctions, political restrictions," Stoltenberg said in an interview with CNN on December 1.
After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, NATO increased its defenses "with battle groups prepared in the eastern part of the alliance, in the Baltic countries, in Latvia... but also in the Black Sea region," Stoltenberg said. .
Ukraine is not a member of NATO, and therefore does not have the same security guarantees as members of the Alliance.
But Stoltenberg left the possibility of Ukraine becoming a NATO member on the table, saying that Russia has no right to tell Ukraine that it cannot aspire to join NATO.
The high-level talks between Russia and NATO in Brussels in mid-January "were not an easy discussion," according to Stoltenberg, who added that "differences will not be easy to bridge."
However, NATO allies and Russia "expressed the need to resume dialogue," he said.
What does the United States say?
President Joe Biden told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a January 2022 phone call that the United States and its allies "will respond decisively if Russia invades Ukraine further."
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But Biden appeared to undermine that message when he later suggested during a White House news conference that a "minor incursion" by Russia would provoke less of a response than a full-scale invasion of the country.
Although Biden promised harsh economic consequences for Russia should Putin send his troops to the border, including restricting its financial transactions in US dollars, he suggested that Western nations were not aligned on what to do in the event of a breach. less.
"There are differences in NATO in terms of what countries are willing to do depending on what happens," he said.
His comments ended in a quick clarification from the White House.
"President Biden has been clear with the Russian President: If any Russian military forces cross the Ukrainian border, that is a new invasion, and it will be met with a swift, stern and united response from the United States and our allies," the secretary wrote. of Press Jen Psaki in a statement.
A Ukrainian official told CNN he was "surprised that US President Biden distinguished between raid and invasion" and suggested that a minor raid would not trigger sanctions.
"This gives Putin the green light to enter Ukraine at his whim," the official added.
The exchange came as Blinken prepared to hold further talks with his European allies on the Ukraine-Russia crisis and to meet his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov.
Blinken has previously warned Russia that "any new aggression can trigger serious consequences."
Two defense officials told CNN on January 3 that the Defense Department has developed military options for Biden if he decides to increase capabilities in Eastern Europe to further deter potential Russian aggression against Ukraine.
Both officials stressed that this part of the routine planning is done by the military and that, for now, the focus remains on diplomacy and possible economic sanctions.
Armored personnel carriers take part in an amphibious landing exercise conducted by army corps and naval infantry units of the Russian Black Sea Fleet at the Opuk firing range in Crimea on October 18, 2021.
The United States delivered roughly $450 million in security assistance to Ukraine in 2021, the Pentagon said, including a package of small arms and ammunition in December.
The Biden administration also considered sending military advisers and new equipment -- including more substantial weaponry -- to Ukraine to prepare for a possible invasion, sources familiar with the deliberations told CNN in November.
The Obama administration was caught off guard when Russia invaded Crimea in 2014 and supported an insurgency in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.
US officials say they are determined not to be caught off guard by another Russian military operation.
"Our concern is that Russia may make the grave mistake of trying to repeat what it undertook in 2014, when it amassed forces along the border, crossed into sovereign Ukrainian territory, and did so by falsely claiming that it had been provoked," Blinken said in November. .
What other factors are at play?
Unrest in the former Soviet state of Kazakhstan was bad news for Putin in early 2022.
The deadly protests in early January resulted in the resignation of the Kazakh government, the declaration of a state of emergency and the deployment of troops from a Russian-led military alliance to help contain the unrest.
But experts have warned that Russia's intervention is unlikely to be the end of the story.
Blinken said that "once the Russians are in your house, sometimes it's very difficult to get them to leave."
Another important issue revolves around the energy supply.
Ukraine views the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which connects Russian gas supplies directly with Germany, as a threat to its own security.
Nord Stream 2 is one of two gas pipelines that Russia has laid underwater in the Baltic Sea, in addition to its traditional network of onshore gas pipelines that crosses Eastern Europe, including Ukraine.
Kyiv sees pipelines running through Ukraine as protection against a Russian invasion, as any military action could cut off the vital flow of gas to Europe.
US analysts and lawmakers have raised concerns that Nord Stream 2 will increase Europe's dependence on Russian gas and allow Moscow to selectively target countries like Ukraine with power outages without a broader European supply disruption.
Bypassing Eastern European countries also means that those nations would be deprived of lucrative transit fees that Russia would otherwise pay.
In May 2021, the Biden administration waived sanctions on the company behind Nord Stream 2, thus giving it the green light.
US officials say the move was taken in the interest of US national security, in an attempt to rebuild deteriorating relations with Germany.
In November, the United States imposed new sanctions on a Russia-linked entity and a vessel linked to Nord Stream 2. Some US senators called for more sanctions to prevent Russia from using the pipeline as a weapon;
Ukraine also called for tougher measures.
With information Katharina Krebs, Anna Chernova, Alex Marquardt, Chandelis Duster, Radina Gigova, Nicole Gaouette and Barbara Starr.
RussiaUkraine
