Corona risk of death higher under populist governments

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Girl in Germany is tested for Corona

Photo: INA FASSBENDER / AFP

According to a study, the risk of death from corona is significantly higher in countries with populist governments than elsewhere.

The excess mortality there is on average more than twice as high as in non-populist countries, according to the research paper produced with the participation of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

"The numbers are clear: In the corona pandemic, populists are clearly the worse crisis managers and are responsible for many avoidable deaths in the countries they govern," said IfW expert Michael Bayerlein, who researches populism.

The so-called excess mortality – i.e. the number of deaths above the value that would have been expected even without the pandemic – is a good eight percent in non-populist countries.

In populist-led countries, however, according to the study, it is almost 18 percent.

More movement in certain countries

The authors classified a total of 13 governments as populist – including those in Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Great Britain, Brazil and India.

With 100 deaths otherwise, the corona pandemic caused 18 additional deaths there, so the conclusion.

The average of all countries considered is therefore ten percent excess mortality: Instead of the usual 100, 110 deaths were recorded as a result of the pandemic.

According to the information, the reason for the significantly higher excess mortality is the higher level of physical activity among the population in populist-governed countries with comparable numbers of infections.

The authors use mobility data from Google for the measurement.

These indicate how heavily certain places, such as grocery stores or parks, have been visited during the pandemic.

According to the study, the data showed that the movement index in populist-governed countries is twice as high with a value of 20.

The team of authors identified two reasons for the higher mobility.

On the one hand, populist governments would take fewer measures to protect against infection, especially contact restrictions.

On the other hand, the communication of populist governments is designed to downplay the dangers posed by the virus and to discredit scientific findings.

This keeps the population from restricting their physical activity on their own.

Worse work by populists

"Our study shows for the first time that populists are doing a bad job in fighting the corona pandemic, which is also reflected directly in the death toll," said Bayerlein.

»The high excess mortality is driven by excessive mobility, which in turn is caused by a lack of restrictions and anti-corona propaganda.«

The only good news is that the clear connection between mobility and the number of deaths also means that people can protect themselves by voluntarily limiting their contacts during the pandemic.

Together with an international team of researchers, Bayerlein evaluated the crisis management during the corona pandemic in 2020 in 42 countries that are members of the industrialized nations organization OECD or belong to the so-called Brics countries Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, the leading emerging markets.

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