Hypersonic hype: China and North Korea are testing new missiles – shock and concern in Washington

Created: 01/29/2022, 10:30 am

From: China.Table

DF-17 medium-range ballistic missiles at the military parade in Beijing marking the 70th anniversary of the People's Republic - equipped with a DF-ZF hypersonic glide missile © Zoya Rusinova Imago / Itar-TASS

Hypersonic weapons are considered the greatest military advance of the past decade.

Recently, China and North Korea have tested hypersonic missiles.

The US military is alarmed.

• Once upon a time, satellites like the Soviet

  Sputnik

  shocked the world.

  Today it's hypersonic weapons.

• China is said to already have this new technology and have tested appropriate missiles.

• Hypersonic technology has already severely destabilized the international security environment.

• This article is 

  available to IPPEN.MEDIA

   as part of a cooperation with the 

  China.Table Professional Briefing -

  China.Table

   first published it 

   on January 20, 2022.

Berlin – America's leadership is alarmed*. And that's why everything has to happen very quickly. Together with Japan, they want to develop a defense strategy against hypersonic weapons as quickly as possible. That's what US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin agreed with their Japanese counterparts earlier this month. The reason given in the joint statement is: A "rapid and opaque military expansion that endangers the regional strategic balance". Everyone knows who is meant by that: China* – and above all Beijing's successful test of a hypersonic missile.

At first it was not at all clear what China had actually achieved last summer.

Because the People's Republic tried for a long time to hide its own success.

The Foreign Ministry in Beijing even spoke of a routine test of a space rocket.

Reports to the contrary are simply wrong, said foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian.

Hypersonic missile: China conceals, US is alarmed

But reports circulated that China had successfully tested a hypersonic weapon.

According to research by the

, that was more than five times the speed of sound

The flying projectile orbited our planet once and then hit its intended target at high speed, with a deviation of about 40 kilometers. "We have no idea how the Chinese did it," the British newspaper quoted a person from US security circles as saying that their high-tech military abilities are now far in excess of what the US had previously given them credit for.

US General Mark Milley was shocked and stunned.

"I don't know if it's directly a Sputnik moment*, but it's definitely very close," said the veteran military.

The Sputnik moment alludes to the successful launch of the first artificial Earth satellite by the Soviet Union in 1957.

As a result, a decades-long space race broke out between the two superpowers.

It seems that a turning point has now been reached again.

Hypersonic Weapons: Fast, accurate, and difficult to detect

Hypersonic weapons are considered the most important armaments innovation in recent years.

In the mature stage, they are fast, precise - and difficult to detect.

They have the potential to permanently change the international balance of power.

As Russian President Vladimir Putin put it in his defense policy speech in Moscow at the end of 2019: "This is the weapon of the future, which can penetrate both existing and future missile defense systems."

Xu Tianran, an expert from the One Earth Future think tank, warns China.Table to be prudent at first.

"It has to be said that there is no clear definition of hypersonic weapons." The most cited feature is in their name: high speed.

Hypersonic or hypersonic means that an object is moving at least five times the speed of sound, i.e. at least Mach 5. That is 6,125 kilometers per hour.

However, speeds of Mach 10 and faster are also quite common.

A Mach 20 rocket takes less than 30 minutes to travel from Washington to Beijing*.

According to official information, Russia's hypersonic glider "Avangard" will be accelerated to Mach 27.

Hypersonic Weapons: Maneuverability more important than speed

But speed is by no means the most important thing. The key advantage of hypersonic weapons is their maneuverability. Because while "normal" ballistic missiles are also very fast, they move like a projectile on a predictable trajectory. Hypersonic missiles, on the other hand, can take unpredictable trajectories and change their height in the atmosphere at any time. As a result, their destination only becomes apparent at the very last moment.

Dominika Kunertova, a scientist from the Center for Security Studies in Zurich, identifies a third advantage: "Both the hypersonic glide missiles and the hypersonic cruise missiles fly very quickly at unusually low altitudes," she explains to China.Table. "So we have to assume that they will bypass the existing ground-based missile defense systems." This in turn changes the security perception of individual states.

There are basically two main types: hypersonic glide missiles (HGV) and hypersonic cruise missiles.

HGVs do not have their own propulsion system, but are launched into the atmosphere by a rocket.

In the first phase, they briefly shoot above the atmosphere.

But then HGVs quickly return to lower altitudes to glide without propulsion – like a paraglider.

Since they can glide up to several thousand kilometers, they are also called "boost-glide vehicles" (roughly "thrust-gliding body, ed.).

By way of comparison, traditional ballistic missiles continue to fly on their predetermined trajectory far outside the atmosphere.

Hypersonic cruise missiles, on the other hand, have their own scramjet drive.

They fly at much lower altitudes and, like airplanes, use the aerodynamic lift in the atmosphere.

Both systems are extremely fast and also very easy to manoeuvre.

They combine the advantages of ballistic missiles and cruise missiles: speed and precision.

Hypersonic missiles: Several states want a supposed silver bullet

Given these advantages, it's not surprising that China wants to own this supposed silver bullet. "It seems like China has the next generation of hypersonic weapons," Niklas Swanstörm told China.Table. "If that's true, that would actually be a great danger. The director of the Institute for Security and Development Policy in Stockholm warns that the much-vaunted stealth technology used by the US armed forces would also become less effective. China tested a glide missile called the DF-ZF.

Other states are therefore also striving for hypersonic weapons.

A global arms race with the miracle rocket is in full swing.

According to its own information, Russia developed its first own hypersonic missile* called “Kinzhal” in 2018.

The hypersonic glide missile "Avangard" followed at the end of 2019.

And North Korea?

Although rockets were recently tested in series*, the regime of ruler Kim Jong-un is still playing in a different league, as Dominika Kunertova puts it.

According to her knowledge, North Korea simply combined two long-established weapon systems.

"They combined a regular, shorter-range ballistic missile with a new prototype maneuvering reentry vehicle."

US lagging behind in hypersonics?

The US, meanwhile, seems to have fallen behind in this race.

Swanstrom estimates that US forces are several years behind the capabilities of the People's Liberation Army of China.

China simply put more resources into military development.

Experts assume that the USA will probably not put its first long-range hypersonic weapons into operation until 2023.

At the end of 2019, Russia's President Putin found it difficult to hide his joy at this: "We are in the unique situation of our recent history that they are trying to catch up with us."

Accordingly, Washington has recently massively increased the budget for the development of hypersonic weapons - from 800 million US dollars in 2017* to 3.8 billion US dollars this year.

However, the USA is pursuing different development goals than Moscow and Beijing.

Washington has publicly banned the possession of nuclear-capable hypersonic weapons until further notice.

Hypersonic Missiles: Excessive Hype?

In general, the rocket expert Kunertova makes an incredible hype about the technology.

"Politicians and the international media tend to overestimate the capabilities of these weapons." Scientific studies have shown that the interaction of speed, altitude, maneuverability and precision still requires a lot of research and development work. In particular, the physical limitations of flying at low altitudes in the atmosphere raise issues of speed and invisibility. There are a number of moments when existing missile defense systems could also detect hypersonic projectiles.

Also, hypersonic missiles are by no means as invisible as some assume. Here, of all things, the hypersonic weapons are fatal because of their particular speed: The great friction with the earth's atmosphere at high speeds generates heat and ionized gas. This will make the missiles detectable again for radar and spaceborne sensors. Even the much-vaunted advantage of good maneuverability could turn out to be a possible weak point: by emitting jamming signals, one could manipulate the weapons controlled from outside.

It quickly becomes clear that the development of this technology is only just beginning. Dominika Kunertova estimates that hypersonic weapons could be put into use in 2030 at the earliest, more likely in 2040. And yet the consequences of technology are serious. Regardless of its actual military capabilities and future benefits, hypersonic technology has profoundly destabilized the international security environment. Whether in Washington, Beijing or Moscow – the subjective perception of one's own vulnerability has already changed. In view of the Sputnik associations, new disarmament initiatives seem unrealistic. Nevertheless, politicians worldwide should try to incorporate the new weapon category into international agreements as quickly as possible.Both fear and arrogance can have fatal consequences in security and armaments policy.

By Michael Radunski

For many years, Michael Radunski

reported on politics, business, culture and sport from India and China.

His stay in China's capital, Beijing, had a particularly strong impact on him.

Before his long stay in Asia, Michael Radunski worked for the

, where he worked on the newspaper's online presence, among other things.

Radunski recently returned to Germany and works as an editor for the

.

This article appeared on January 20

 , 2022