Omicron｜Liu Yulong expects the epidemic to rise like a tsunami or cause 20,000 elderly deaths

The new crown pneumonia epidemic in Hong Kong is severe, and the number of confirmed cases has hit a new high recently.

Liu Yulong, chairman of the Scientific Committee on Vaccine Preventable Diseases, said today (29th) that the Omicron variant virus is "unstoppable", describing it as not the worst case yet.

However, the vaccination rate of the elderly and children in Hong Kong is not ideal. It is estimated that if an outbreak occurs in an elderly home, thousands of elderly people may die, and "in the worst case, there may be 10,000 to 20,000 elderly people (death)."

Regarding the government's introduction of a "vaccine passport", he believes that it is semi-compulsive, but there is no way to do it. "Every point must be used to return to a reasonable space." Liu Yulong also said that he is happy with the government's goal of proposing a 90% vaccination rate. , but believes that the target should be based on the population of Hong Kong.

Based on the Hong Kong population of 7.394 million in 2021, a 90% vaccination rate means at least 6.65 million people will be vaccinated for the first time; however, if calculated based on the number of "vaccinable population", that is, 7.15 million people, at least 6.43 million people will need to be vaccinated It is considered "attainment", with a difference of about 220,000 people.

Liu Zexing, the convener of the New Crown Vaccine Advisory and Expert Committee, believes that the fifth wave of the epidemic may still last for one or two months, and in the future, citizens will also have to "tighten their pants, and it will take a long time."

▼1.28 10 teachers and students of Tseung Kwan O Yuan Xuan College No. 3 Middle School were diagnosed ▼

Liu Yulong described in the commercial program "Politics and Economics Saturday" today that the epidemic in Hong Kong is "𠵱 home first, soaring upwards." He pointed out that the Omicron epidemic may have a chance of "tsunami-like rise". If the epidemic is not controlled in the end, it will skyrocket.

He took Singapore as an example, with 5,000 new cases yesterday (28th).

As for the vaccination of the new crown in Hong Kong, he described it as "two ends cannot reach the shore", and the elderly and children groups need to pay more attention.

He pointed out that the current vaccination rate of nursing homes is only about 10%. "If there is an outbreak, the mortality rate will be really worrying and appalling." He estimated that if the vaccination rate does not improve, in the event of an outbreak, there may be thousands of people. The elderly died, "in the worst case, there may be 10,000 to 20,000 elderly people (death)."

(Vaccination rate) If it is really like this, although the protection center is working hard and working around the clock, Omicron is concerned about dozens or even hundreds of transmission chains, and it is estimated that the deaths are thousands of elderly people, and even the worst situation is going to Go to 10,000 or 20,000 old people.

Liu Yulong

Chief Executive Carrie Lam announced the latest epidemic prevention measures on January 27

Liu Yulong pointed out that primary school students still need to work hard to get vaccinated.

Regarding the student group, Liu Yulong believes that the current student vaccination rate is more than 80%, describing it as "it's okay"; however, the vaccination rate of primary school students is only 1% to 2%, and less than 5%, he thinks that "remains to be done."

He emphasized that Sinovac has very good safety data, and there is no myocarditis in the global data.

As for Fubitai, when the risk of myocarditis in Hong Kong was the highest, two injections were required every 21 days. At that time, 1 out of 3,000 people developed myocarditis.

Even after the dose is reduced, it is expected that children aged 5 to 11 may develop myocarditis when vaccinated with Fubitux. More than 10 cases of myocarditis have also been reported in the United States with about 8 million to 10 million doses of this age group being vaccinated.

He emphasized that if "safety comes first, we will fight Kexing".

When asked about the risk of unvaccinated children contracting new coronary pneumonia, Liu Yulong pointed out that taking the United States as an example, the mortality rate is one in 10,000 people. It is estimated that if all 400,000 to 500,000 primary school students in Hong Kong are infected, there will be dozens of people. die.

Even after recovery, the sense of smell and taste will also be affected. He said that he had been in contact with children who had been infected with the disease earlier, "I used to like to eat durian, but my family felt sick when they smelled durian, so I was worried if I didn't eat durian in my life I don't know how to count." He also said that some patients also developed inflammation of the hands and toes, so he urged children to be vaccinated.

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It is proposed to calculate the 90% vaccination rate based on the population of Hong Kong and 220,000 more injections

Liu Yulong also said that he is happy with the government's goal of 90% vaccination rate, but believes that the target should be based on the entire population of Hong Kong.

Based on the Hong Kong population of 7.394 million in 2021, a 90% vaccination rate means at least 6.65 million people will get the first shot; however, based on the current vaccinated population of 7.15 million people, at least 6.43 million will be vaccinated. ”, the difference between the two is about 220,000.

He also expects 20,000 to 30,000 injections a day to achieve a 90% vaccination rate. He expects that by the end of March to the beginning of April, Hong Kong may consider changing to a "dynamic and virus coexistence" strategy.

In the same program, Liu Zexing expressed his concern about the current epidemic, because the number of cases has increased since the beginning of the new year, and the source of more than 30 cases has been unknown. The fifth wave of the epidemic believes that "tighten your pants, and it will take a long time."

He also said that he still needs to be careful in the next two months, and the epidemic may not be subsided, and he appealed to the public to avoid gathering too many people during the Lunar New Year, and to get vaccinated as soon as possible.

(Children infected with the epidemic) I used to like to eat durians before, but my family felt sick when they smelled durians.

Liu Yulong

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