The Russian war threat on the Ukrainian border appears to be a European event, with no immediate immediate consequences for the Middle East.
However, the basic factors that drive the occurrence are a trend that should also mark a strategic turn for the State of Israel.
Although the trend is not really new, in its degree of strength it marks the end of the hopes of the New World, which awaited with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact, a stable world order in the form of Western European aspirations.
As in most conflicts between peoples and nations, even in what is happening on the Ukrainian border justice is not just on one side.
In Europe and the United States, Ukraine is indeed represented as a seeker of freedom and progress, and is subject to the classic threat of the sons of darkness to the sons of light. However, the picture is several times more complex.
Geographically, and even in a centuries-old historical look back to the days of Tsarist Russia, the border between Ukraine and Russia was never clear.
Between the Dnieper and Poland there were areas of book that did not crystallize into a geographical unit with a stable identity.
In the Ukrainian state, which gained independence with the dissolution of the Soviet Union, there remained areas such as Donetsk where a population with a distinct Russian identity resides.
Even if Russia does not realize the threat of war, in fact an appeal to the borders casts a threatening shadow on the aspiration of Western Europe and the United States for an era of world peace, anchored in its infrastructure within permanent and recognized international borders that are unchangeable.
There is also a fair amount of justice in Russia's refusal to join Ukraine - albeit unofficially - into the NATO bloc. In
his book "War and Strategy" General Maj. The Monroe Doctrine of 1823 stipulated that the United States would view an attempt by European states to intervene in two parts of the American continent as a hostile act, and implied a willingness to use force to prevent it ... "(ibid., P. 531).
By that logic, President Kennedy was acting in the Cuban Missile Crisis.
According to him, Russia is fully justified in its efforts to prevent the infiltration of NATO influence into the territories of its neighboring countries, which were formerly controlled by the Soviet Union.
Again in a position of power
The collapse of the Soviet Union left the United States as a single power with hegemonic exclusivity. Yet historical reality never stands still.
Under the leadership of President Vladimir Putin and the commanders of the Russian military, a new military doctrine has been developed tailored to the circumstances of the weakness in which Russia finds itself.
Over the years, with a creative strategic effort, and with very little financial investment relative to American investments in military force building, the Russians were able to regain their status as a power.
This is done by the daring force to seize opportunities for friction and to use force, on a large scale and without restrictions, by systematically striving to take advantage of the dynamics that emerge from situations of loss of stability.
Simply put: Russia has regained its position by the power of instability.
This logic created the conditions for large-scale military moves, including the operation in Georgia in the summer of 2008, the fighting in Donetsk on the Ukrainian border, the active involvement in Syria, and the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.
According to Russian logic of action, in recent systems the deliberate and effective use of combining military force with civilian moves has stood out.
In Georgia, for example, the rapid infiltration of armored forces into Abkhazia was made possible by Russian-oriented Abkhazian civilians, who seized the tunnels and bridges on the highway leading to the capital Tbilisi.
Despite Russian systemic success, Europe and the United States seek to continue to ignore the implications stemming from Russia's powerful status.
Unlike Western armies, Russian force operation continues to rely on a broad mass of ground forces in well-integrated combat teams.
The battle in Georgia was preceded by an armored force in the form of an army that was activated as a springboard in anticipation of the opportunity.
In the new era, all Western armies as well as the IDF suffer from a basic gap in readiness and availability of ground forces for action. Bringing the force to the area of action with sufficient readiness requires a logistical campaign of transport, deployment and organization. They have the ability to place a large ground force at the front of the front, for an extended period of time, in immediate readiness for command.
In this way, the Syrians also operated on the border of the Golan Heights until the outbreak of the Civil War, and indeed, with the help of Russian involvement in the rehabilitation of the Syrian army, the Syrian mainland mass is aimed at redeployment in this area.
The Russian-Syrian flight held this week on the Golan border contains a clear message about the return of the Syrian army with Russian support for an active military presence on the Syrian-Israeli border.
The end of the American peace era
What supported Yitzhak Rabin's appeal to the peace settlement trend in the fall of 1993 was, among other things, the combination of the unique circumstances involved in the collapse of the USSR and the strengthening of the United States into a hegemonic power, on which the Israeli settlement trend was based. All the basic conditions have changed: the United States has weakened, and Russia, which has returned to a powerful role, has resumed an active role in Europe, the Balkans, and the Middle East.
The clear weakness of the EU countries, which with the gospel of peace have reduced their armies to the loss of self-defense capability, must resonate in Israel as a warning call. Here are still longing for the gospel of peace, there are still those who seek to ensure that with the "end of the occupation" and a break into a new reality, things will change for the better. The moderate mountains on both sides, objects of life. In the early days of the Oslo process, with the atmosphere of global peace, this assumption may have had a grip. But since then, the global system has also been re-swept away by the horrors of war.
In this formation, it is worth recalculating our path. Inspired by European peace, the architects of the Oslo Accords sought to shape similarly the regional reality in the Middle East. With the Fukuyama Gospel on "The End of History," Shimon Peres formulated in those days the vision of the new Middle East. After 30 years, even in Germany, people are talking ironically about the end of the "end of history" era. The Russian threat on the Ukrainian border, even if it does not escalate into war, underscores how fundamentally detached New World hopes are from real reality.
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