This is what Putin is looking for with Ukraine and NATO, according to an expert 1:51
Editor's Note:
Frida Ghitis, (@fridaghitis) a former CNN producer and correspondent, is a world affairs columnist.
She is a weekly opinion contributor for CNN, a columnist for The Washington Post, and a columnist for the World Politics Review.
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(CNN) --
By the time the closing ceremony marked the end of Russia's 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, pro-Russia protesters in Ukraine's Crimean peninsula were already in the streets.
Within days, unidentified "little green men," masked soldiers with concealed insignia, began what became Russia's President Vladimir Putin's most blatant violation of international law: the capture and annexation of the territory of another country.
Putin waited until the Sochi games were over to launch the attack on Crimea, probably so as not to divert attention from what he hoped would be a showcase of Russia's achievements.
There have been other theories about the timing, including an effort to distract from mounting accusations of massive corruption surrounding Games staging expenses, but the need to keep the spotlight on Sochi was likely a motivating factor.
Eight years later, as Putin prepares to attend the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics next week, Russia's troops have been massing along Ukraine's borders, awaiting the decision of the president on whether or not to invade.
The Ukraine-Russia conflict explained in 4 maps
This time, Putin is likely to think twice about casting a shadow over the Olympics (or at least the first part of them) and spoiling China's leader Xi Jinping's moment to shine on the world stage.
And it is that Putin and Xi have become the autocratic brothers of the world.
The two leaders have used eerily similar tactics to achieve the results they both aspire to.
Both have orchestrated a rule change so they can stay in power for decades, beyond their term limits.
To stay in power, they are also increasingly crushing dissent at home, jailing critics, and worse, intimidating their neighbors and trying to expand their country's sphere of influence.
They have shown a willingness to do whatever it takes to silence calls for democracy and human rights in their country.
They have repressed and accused their own citizens of acting as puppets of foreign powers, as if it is impossible to live in China or Russia in, say, St. Petersburg or Hong Kong, and really want democracy.
Stand News newspaper closes in Hong Kong after police arrest seven people linked to this pro-democracy outlet
China is bent on telling its citizens and the world that Western-style democracy is an inferior, chaotic and ineffective system.
Russia also presents the United States as a superpower in decline, but threatening.
They maintain that democracy and human rights, more than a universal desire, are an invention of the West.
And, to top it off, they silence anyone who appears to be amassing too much power, including business tycoons, unless they are sufficiently in their service.
More than an important ideological motivation, the main objective of these repressive tactics is to protect their domain.
Putin talks about NATO and the threat it poses to Russia's borders.
But it is Ukraine's turn toward a freer, more democratic West that worries him most.
The longing for freedom is contagious and he knows it.
He knows it too Xi.
Putin knows that a democratic Ukraine on Russia's border can inspire those who want change at home, just as West Germany's Cold War freedoms prompted the Soviet bloc to build a wall around East Berlin.
In the 1980s, Putin was in Dresden as a foreign KGB agent when the East Germans brought down the wall, an event that set the stage for the collapse of the Soviet Union.
To solidify their grip on power, autocrats love to host mega-events, and none better than the Olympics.
They represent an opportunity to proclaim your success to your people and to the world;
to make good on the unspoken argument that whatever price they have exacted from repression, the end has justified the means.
However, for maximum impact, they need to captivate the world's attention.
Chinese officials this week denied that Xi asked Putin to postpone an invasion of Ukraine until after the Beijing Games, but they made no secret of their contempt for those who say Ukraine has the right to choose its own path.
After Xi and Putin spoke last month, state television quoted China's leader as saying: "Currently, certain international forces are arbitrarily interfering in the internal affairs of China and Russia under the guise of democracy and human rights. ".
Xi and Putin, brothers in arms!
ANALYSIS |
Russia-Ukraine conflict: it is the end of the world order as we know it
And weapons are not lacking.
Military force is a key tool in its strategy to expand spheres of influence beyond its borders.
China's military builds artificial islands and military bases in disputed waters;
routinely flying military aircraft around Taiwan's airspace and otherwise intimidating its neighbors.
Russia has deployed its army in Georgia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
And next month his forces are scheduled to conduct exercises in Belarus, adding another threat to Ukraine from the north.
China and Russia have a history of rivalry and there are still areas of friction.
(Which sphere of influence should, for example, Central Asia, including Kazakhstan, belong to? They both want it.)
But for now, Xi and Putin are joining arms against their main enemy, the United States, and its allies in Europe.
Both China and Russia face Western sanctions.
The two men see in the other a kindred and autocratic spirit.
A week before the arrival of the Olympic torch in Beijing, with China facing a "diplomatic boycott" of the Games by several democratic countries, and with Russia in the midst of tense negotiations over Ukraine, the Foreign Ministry spokesman of China, Zhao Lijian, spoke grandly as he declared, "There is no limit to mutual trust between China and Russia, there is no no-go zone in our strategic cooperation, and there is no limit to how far our long-standing friendship can go."
Australia, UK and Canada join US diplomatic boycott of Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics
After such an impassioned statement, it is hard to imagine that Putin will knowingly divert attention from China's Olympic moment.
Of course, the last time China hosted the Games, in 2008, Putin sent his troops to Georgia.
However, that was long before Xi came to power.
On this occasion, China made the United Nations adopt an "Olympic truce" resolution, a rolling commitment to refrain from hostilities from one week before the start of the Games to one week after the end of the Paralympic Games.
If Putin decides that he wants to invade Ukraine, that deadline, until March 20, is too long.
By then, Ukraine's frozen ground will have melted to mud barely passable by Russian tanks.
Meanwhile, the United States and Ukraine do not seem to agree on the threat level of a Russian attack.
A senior Ukrainian official told CNN Thursday that a call between Biden and his counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky "didn't go well," a description disputed by the White House.
As for Russia's next move, only one president really knows the answer.
When Putin sits in the stands of Beijing's Bird's Nest Stadium on February 4 to watch the opening ceremony, he is likely to keep his troops waiting for a few days, even if he has decided to launch what would be a catastrophic invasion.
He will do it for Xi's sake.
After all, it's the least a brother can do.
Unless, of course, you decide to invade before the Games begin.
In which case, the clock is ticking.
Vladimir Putin Xi Jinping
