In a world where the stars line up according to good and bad, the choice of Hussein a-Sheikh and Majed Faraj as the heirs of Abu Mazen should have been guaranteed. These two are the closest to the chairman of the Palestinian network: Faraj is the head of Palestinian intelligence, al-Sheikh is the Minister of Civil Affairs. The Israeli security establishment, the possibility that after the departure of the 86-year-old chief (who is in poor health), this duo will work together as his successors - is optimal.
But even the defense establishment understands that the reality is more complex, since the popularity of the two in the political corridors in Israel is the opposite in relation to their status on the Palestinian street.
Many there see two collaborators, and on social media there have even been increasing allegations of corruption, in which the PA leadership is allegedly affected.
Israel, on the other hand, considers them the "good guys": Faraj (60), a native of the Daheisheh refugee camp, is very close to Abu Mazen and his son Yasser (who is in Qatar).
He has been with him for more than a decade, has carried out overt and covert missions for him, strongly opposes Hamas and maintains for him security coordination with Israel.
However, in the first intifada, Faraj was one of the Fatah leaders, was arrested many times and spent about six years in an Israeli prison. And the many security forces - including with Benjamin Netanyahu - moderated it,
a-Sheikh, who also opposes Hamas, is now in charge of contacts with Israel in the civilian sphere on behalf of the PA.
He speaks fluent Hebrew, knows closely Israeli army officers and senior politicians, and stated that the Palestinian leadership would be happy to make history with Defense Minister Bnei Gantz or others in the government, as was done at the time with Yitzhak Rabin.
Marwan Barghouti, Photo: Reuters
He and Faraj accompanied Abu Mazen on his last meeting with Ganz in Rosh HaAyin.
The two also met with Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, are also acceptable to the Americans and maintain contact with the CIA.
A few years ago, the United States even gave Faraj a certificate of honor for passing on information that helped capture one of al-Qaeda's senior figures
. According to the Authority, the recent appointment of a-Sheikh as a member of the PLO Executive Committee is only a preliminary step to a significant appointment and is considered several times his: PLO Secretary General, a position he held until a year and a quarter ago Saeb Erekat, who died of complications Corona.
Another close ally of Abu Mazen, who served as interim president of the PA following the death of Yasser Arafat in November 2004, was recommended two weeks ago by the Fatah Central Committee (PA) to chair the Palestinian National Council. Which is the Palestinian General Parliament (in the territories and abroad).
Abu Mazen has complete control over the Fatah Central Committee, which at the same time of course expressed renewed confidence in him.
Dahlan is getting stronger from Abu Dhabi
Although he has not officially announced this, Abu Mazen's conduct indicates that he is rapidly advancing Faraj and al-Sheikh to positions of control, now alongside him, and in the future, perhaps in his place.
Faraj will continue to deal with security matters in the PA. A-Sheikh will continue to be in charge of the political sphere. At the same time, personalities such as Kahari Barghouti and Yasser al-Qudwa, a former Palestinian foreign minister and nephew of Yasser Arafat, were removed from the center of power over their support for Marwan Barghouti's candidacy for the presidency.
This is, therefore, on paper, Abu Mazen's plan, which is well received in Israel and the United States. But the field, as mentioned, does not necessarily correspond with this outline. He is currently a researcher and analyst at the Jerusalem Center for Public and State Affairs, noting that both the heirs on behalf of Abu Mazen and their rivals suffer from a similar weakness: " His".
"Faraj," notes Inbari, "strong in Dahisha, but not in Ramallah, Hebron or Nablus. A non-sheikh, originally from the Jelzon refugee camp, has no clan at all. Barghouti, who is serving five life sentences and considers himself a presidential candidate, is well established in the sub-district Ramallah, but weak in other districts.Jibril Rajoub, a native of Dura, a former head of the Preventive Security Service, has weakened even in his area, while Muhammad Dahlan, Abu Mazen's great rival, a former Fatah and Preventive Security chief in the Gaza Strip, is not at all Located in the West Bank.
Muhammad Dahlan, Photo: IP
"Dahlan is currently the senior adviser to Sheikh Muhammad bin Zayed, the heir to the throne of Abu Dhabi, and has for years been gaining influence - literally - in the refugee camps in the West Bank and Lebanon. Dahlan's money is mainly used to buy large arms. In the refugee camp stood out, in the Qalandiya refugee camp near Jerusalem, in the al-Ameri refugee camp near Ramallah and other places in the West Bank. "He stood out, and his attempt to join Farage and Sheikh has failed recently."
Inbari estimates that it is not inconceivable that in the face of the new Faraj-a-Sheikh axis, a counter-axis will develop, centered on Dahlan and the Barghouti clan, each of which has ties with Hamas today.
"There are already the first buds of a Hamas-Barghouti-Dahlan triangle," Inbari testified, noting that in Jenin all the militias - Jihad, Hamas and Fatah - joined together against the PA. Influence there on the Tanzim of Fatah.
"There will be a civil war here"
Indeed, these two emerging centers of power are already operating on the ground as real enemies.
In November, PA intelligence officials led by Majed Faraj arrested dozens of Dahlan supporters in the West Bank. In the same month, in the Balata camp, Hatem Abu Rizk, Dahlan's loyalist, was killed.
Faraj's forces also raided the al-Amari refugee camp (near al-Bira) at the time, arresting more Dahlan supporters.
The atmosphere in the refugee camps is very hostile to Abu Mazen and his people.
Palestinian and Arab world researcher Yoni Ben Menachem, who recently spoke with one of the Fatah operatives there, heard from him about his feelings: Mahmoud Abbas Impatiently, some people are waiting for the Israeli defense of part of the Palestinian leadership to be exposed.
"There will be a civil war here, sometimes I think how miserable the Palestinian security personnel are, everyone who was involved in the bloodshed of the Palestinians. "The Palestinians are waiting for the right moment to eliminate these people."
Last November, the Palestinian Authority launched a military operation in an attempt to regain control of the Jenin district, both in the city and in the villages and refugee camps in the area, but success was limited.
The operation ended with talks on Hudna (temporary cessation of hostilities) between Ramallah and Jenin.
Hussein a-Sheikh, Photo: From Facebook
Earlier, gunfire erupted in the Jenin area between the PA and Hamas members, Islamic Jihad and al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, who even attacked the PA compound in the city several times with live ammunition. The PA was also forced to release from custody Muhammad Zabeidi, the son of Zakaria Zabeidi, a former commander of the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, who escaped on the eve of Rosh Hashanah last year, along with five of his friends from Gilboa Prison. The PA and immediately afterwards came out armed from the alleys of the refugee camp, attacked Palestinian policemen and threw explosives at the Muqata compound. Zbeidi, as stated, was released.
Inbari estimates that neither the PA institutions nor Abu Mazen or Israel will elect the next president, but the Kalashnikovs. "The rifle will speak," says Inbari.
Where does Israel stand in this game of forces?
"Israel has its own desires and preferences. It is careful not to express them publicly, and it is good that it is. Israel should be careful and guarded from the perception that the Palestinians will behave like Europeans; "And what there is is Abu Mazen and that is quite a bit; to be constantly with an open eye, and to understand that what will happen in the PA after Abu Mazen, will of course have a great impact on us as well."
What is Abu Mazen's real health condition?
"Abu Mazen has had a severe heart attack and is suffering from another old age disease. He has a close doctor. He surprised many with his recovery, but age is not playing in his favor."
Are scenarios of joint leadership, or of an uncompromising leadership candidate for leadership, that would not threaten the many contenders, possible scenarios?
"Joint leadership? In my opinion, there is no such option. As for the compromise candidate - this is a scenario that I would not rule out."
The shadow of Barghouti
Abu Mazen was elected to office in 2005 and has served in it for 17 years. In 2009, his term was extended indefinitely, and since then - under various pretexts - he has repeatedly postponed the presidential election. "If he is lucky, he will pull another roof in a year or two," estimates an Israeli source familiar with the matter. "Recently, we see that part of the circle close to Abu Mazen transfers personal funds to accounts in Europe and the United States. This is another sign of appreciation that Abu Mazen's days are short and he will not hold the reins of leadership for long. Anyone who transfers his money abroad probably estimates that Abu Mazen will soon be less relevant, and that he needs to keep himself and his money, for the day when Abu Mazen will no longer be on the ground, to protect him.
"The rising tensions in the refugee camps in Nablus, Jenin, Ramallah and the villages - where night battles are occasionally fought between the various camps - and the large number of weapons in the hands of the camps identified with the various contestants - also indicate that the decisive hour is very near." The PA's loose governance, the same source points out, is also embodied in clan clashes that also include gun battles, such as in Hebron, between the Jabari clan identified with Jordan and the Qawasma clan identified with the PLO.
In the run-up to the eighth conference of the Fatah movement on March 21, tensions are rising in the PA. Abu Mazen and his loyalists, al-Sheikh and Faraj, are planning a series of measures that will weaken Barghouti's power - which, even from within the Israeli prison, his shadow threatens. Faraj only recently convinced the CIA and the Israeli GSS that Barghouti was a terrorist and remains a terrorist, and that if he was released from prison and elected president, he would cancel security coordination with Israel and the United States.
Barghouti himself has an influence on what is happening in Israeli prisons and it is estimated that the succession battles will also affect what happens inside the prisons.
It is not inconceivable that against this background we will witness strikes, riots and various protests by the prisoners.
Hamas is not sitting idly by either.
In negotiations with Israel on the release of civilians and soldiers' bodies, he insists that Marvan Barghouti be included in every deal. The Palestinian Center for Political Studies has in the past year given Abu Mazen only 25-10 percent support, while Barghouti receives 34-22 percent support.
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