Coffee, tea or chocolate, buttered toast or generously garnished with jam, spread... Everyone has their own breakfast ritual.
But on the shelves, regulars of this meal – one of the most important of the day – see the price of their favorite products increase.
To discover
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Inflation was again on the rise in January, to 2.9%, according to a first provisional study by INSEE.
If it mainly affects energy prices (+19.7%), food prices have also increased by 1.5%.
And breakfast is no exception.
On the contrary, its departments are among those most affected by inflation.
Private label coffee on the rise
Starting with the traditional hot drink, essential to start your day.
Last November, Michel-Édouard Leclerc was pessimistic, predicting a
"huge price increase on coffee and cocoa"
.
Since the start of the year, Arabica coffee prices have in fact experienced strong growth caused by a disappointing harvest in Brazil, the world's leading producer of this seed, which has considerably reduced the supply.
Not to mention the export difficulties that affect the whole world caused in particular by a shortage of containers and high freight costs.
As a result, the selling price of coffee in supermarkets rose 1.7% in January from a year earlier, according to figures from panelist NielsenIQ.
Inflation is all the more visible when comparing prices to those of September with +2.6%.
Moreover, it varies according to the type of brand.
Thus, private label coffee is on average 4% more expensive than six months ago.
A figure that rises to 8.4% for first price private label coffee when manufacturer brands have only increased by 2%.
“The prices of manufacturer brands are relatively fixed by what was concluded at the start of 2021 during the annual negotiations between manufacturers and distributors. Conversely, private labels, including first-price ones, are produced by retailers and retailers can postpone increases in raw material costs whenever they wish
,” explains Emmanuel Cannes, price expert at NielsenIQ. The negotiations currently underway will end at the end of February.
“If the distributors will try to limit the rise in prices by putting forward the argument of the purchasing power of consumers, there will necessarily be a postponement of inflation on certain categories of product”
, he predicts.
If coffee is widely acclaimed by the French, tea and cocoa are also on the breakfast menu.
For them, the price increase is
“relatively reasonable”
, analyzes the expert: +0.4% for tea and +0.8% for breakfast chocolate powders compared to September 2021. As for milk, its price climbs little, 1% more, with little disparity according to the different types of brands.
Cereals saw their prices rise by 1.26%.
Spreading costs more
Sandwiches are not spared either.
According to the National Interprofessional Center for the Dairy Economy, between September and December 2021, the price of butter thus increased by 30%, according to the average over the different categories (pasteurized butter, concentrated butter, etc.) and the prices purchase price (spot price and futures price).
In question, a decrease in milk production combined with an increase in world demand and the fact that French industrialists have favored the production of cheese and cream for their milk rather than butter.
On supermarket shelves, this inflation translates into a price increase of 1.2% on average but 5.3% for entry-level brands.
Honey and jam are no exception to this upward phenomenon with, in January, +0.67% (+2.3% for entry-level brands).
In question, the rise in sugar prices.
Next to them on the breakfast table, the spread increases slightly less (about +0.5%).
And since you have to have something to spread on, what about the price of the bread?
Unsurprisingly, it is also suffering the consequences of rising prices, particularly those of flour and yeast.
Last November, the former delegate minister in charge of SMEs, Alain Griset, wanted to be optimistic, however.
Admitting that
“the price of the baguette could increase”,
he said he was
“certain”
that this increase would be
“at most 5%”
, or 5 euro cents.
Finally, for lovers of the English breakfast, the observation is the same.
The price of feed for laying hens, including wheat, having risen for several weeks, this increase is reflected in the cost of eggs.
NielsenIQ indeed notes a price increase of 0.56% on the shelves.
As for fruit juices, the increase is 0.6%.
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Although inflation at breakfast therefore remains measured, with the exception of certain products,
"it is all of these increases and the frequency of purchases that will cause the basket to increase"
, underlines Emmanuel Cannes.
According to him, it is difficult to imagine a reversal of the phenomenon for the year 2022 without foreseeing a surge in prices to come.
Even if the negotiations lead to a rise in selling prices, the distributors have another weapon to lighten the bill for the consumer.
“We can assume that promotions in 2022 will be even more numerous than in 2021”
, predicts Emmanuel Cannes, specifying that these points are also on the menu of negotiations between manufacturers and distributors.
