Virologists dare to make a first forecast - what we could expect after the omicron wave

Created: 2022-02-04Updated: 2022-02-04, 12:45 p.m

By: Victoria Maiwald

There have already been many corona variants – what can we expect next?

Are the corona mutations becoming more dangerous again?

Munich - alpha, beta, gamma, delta, omicron - the Greek alphabet is far from exhausted and in the corona pandemic we could still expect some variants of the corona virus *.

However, it is currently difficult to say how dangerous they can become.

Some experts dare to make initial predictions.

Corona virus in Germany: what comes after Omikron?

What seems pretty clear so far: The corona virus will continue to develop.

However, it is crucial whether it also becomes more dangerous for people.

The President of the Society for Virology, Ralf Bartenschlager, gives a ray of hope to

Experience would show that pathogenicity usually decreases as a virus adapts to its host.

This means that the virus is usually less pathogenic.

We have already observed something similar at Omikron.

This corona variant is currently spreading rapidly in Germany, but causes a rather mild course of the disease.

But: statements on the evolution of infectivity are hardly possible, emphasizes biophysicist and virus variant expert Richard Neher from the University of Basel.

There is also no connection between the severity of the disease and transmissibility.

Observe corona variants very closely – “so as not to slip into the next wave unprepared”

But if the coronavirus is to persist, it must adapt well to survive in a largely immune population.

So it has to find ways to escape the protection against infection – i.e. vaccinations and surviving infections.

For example, the corona virus could develop a stronger ability for immune escape through gene modifications to the spike protein.

Then an infection that has already gone through or a vaccination would not protect you as well against the virus.

A certain protection against serious illnesses is still possible.

What new variants await us now, or even if Delta will return and prevail*, is difficult to predict.

According to Neher, it is therefore important to continue to closely monitor the developments and emergence of the corona variants in order not to “slip into a new wave unprepared”.

The good news at the end: Experts are relatively certain that we will not be completely thrown back with new variants.

Precisely because more and more people have already had contact with the virus, in the form of an infection or a vaccination, the risk that a completely new mutation will develop that would completely undermine the immune response is low.