Concerns about new lockdowns in China: are there any risk of delivery bottlenecks again?

Created: 2022-02-05, 16:26

By: Astrid Theil

China's head of state and party leader Xi Jinping.

© Huang Jingwen/XinHua/dpa

The German economy fears renewed supply bottlenecks due to China's "zero Covid" strategy.

Economic experts see the confrontation course between China and the West as problematic.

Beijing/Berlin - The Chinese leadership is currently doing everything possible to prevent the spread of the Omicron variant in the country - despite or because of the Olympic Games.

If omicron spreads, strict lockdowns in China can be expected again with this tactic.

Against the background of this strategy, there are fears that there could be disruptions in global supply chains.

The Olympic Games in particular could become a superspreader event.

The Federation of German Industries (BDI) is therefore warning of potential supply bottlenecks.

Due to the "zero Covid" strategy, China could again close factories, cargo ports and entire cities again.

Zero Covid strategy in China: lockdowns are imminent

These lockdowns could harm the German economy - especially given that trade is currently still a long way from the conditions that existed before the corona pandemic.

reports, this was the assessment made by

economics expert Klaus-Jürgen Gern from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

He believes that this scenario is not only likely because of the Olympic Games, but also because of the high risk of infection with the omicron virus.

As long as China sticks to its strategy for dealing with the corona pandemic, there will probably be strict lockdowns again and again.

The question arises as to whether China should move away from the "zero Covid" strategy, since the omicron variant is more contagious but less dangerous than other corona variants.

Hoping for a rethink in China's handling of Omicron

The International Monetary Fund (IMF)* is similarly concerned.

As the

reports, he has already called for a change in the way the Chinese leadership deals with the corona virus.

Otherwise, the IMF fears a “significant lull”.

According to various experts, however, the likelihood of Beijing moving away from the strategy is rather low.

Max Zenglein, chief economist at the Mercator Institute for China Studies, told

that he thinks it is unlikely: “It will certainly put Chinese Covid policy to the test.

However, I believe that it will be possible to limit it regionally," says Zenglein. 

Many areas could be affected by the economy, but according to Zenglein, a “shock moment” like that at the beginning of the pandemic is not to be expected.

The chief economist at Commerzbank, Jörg Krämer, also assesses the situation to the

similarly.

Deliveries to German industry could be disrupted again.

In his opinion, however, China's strategy of becoming independent from the West is much more dangerous.

A confrontation is developing.

China and the West increasingly on a confrontational course

This is also reflected in the context of the Olympic Games.

A number of Western countries, including the US, UK, Canada, Australia and Denmark, have announced a diplomatic boycott of the Games in protest at Beijing's human rights abuses.

While Western government officials have decided not to attend the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games*, Russian President Vladimir Putin and China's head of state Xi Jiping were particularly friendly on this occasion.