The new crown epidemic in Hong Kong continues to expand, and there is a "blowout outbreak" trend. The number of newly diagnosed cases reached 351 the day before yesterday (5th).
Yesterday (6th), there were 342 new cases, of which about 136 were of unknown origin, and more than 300 were initially confirmed.
Director of Health Lim Man-kin said that the epidemic situation is quite critical. In the past two weeks, there have been 1,921 new cases and more than 320 cases without origin.
Recently, controversy over the direction of "dynamic clearing" and "coexisting with the virus" has continued, and the fact that the epidemic is on the verge of getting out of control has once again attracted the attention of politicians and experts, whether Hong Kong can withstand the huge social costs behind continuing "dynamic clearing". and public resource burden.
Lin Zhengcai, a member of the Executive Council and a member of the Vaccination Program Task Force, said that he understands the current epidemic situation and the plight of citizens' "anti-epidemic fatigue". He believes that under the premise that the vaccination rate reaches a reasonable level, the society should consider the "exit mechanism" at an appropriate time. ", seeking a balance between "dynamic clearing" and "coexistence".
▼On February 6, Yuen Long Guang continued to be closed for disinfection▼
The burden of public resources under "dynamic clearing" is heavy
Several politicians privately lamented to the author that the biggest problem with Hong Kong's epidemic prevention policy is not simply the controversy of "dynamic clearing" or "coexistence with the virus", but rather the "no soup and no water" between the two. Disadvantages of the two: not only can they not enjoy the benefits of "clearing", but the community epidemic still "explodes to colorful" and has been unable to clear customs with the mainland; Everyday life is hampered and economic activity suffers.
Apart from social costs, public resources are another important consideration.
As mentioned above, due to the "dynamic clearing" policy, many places will be closed as soon as the epidemic breaks out, and the consumer market is often hit. Some industries such as fitness centers, theaters, massage parlors, etc. are often closed, and business is precarious. There are reports that barber shops also need to be included in designated closed premises.
The government's latest plan to launch the sixth round of the anti-epidemic fund involving about 20 billion yuan, of course, can temporarily relieve the industry's urgent needs, but whether this approach can be sustainable in the long run is itself a question.
Some politicians pointed out: "Public money is not always endless. Every time billions or tens of billions are lost like this, how much can the government help?"
Carrie Lam showed the results of her own rapid test at a press conference earlier.
(file picture)
When it comes to public resources, it is natural to mention the most directly affected medical system.
Chief Executive Carrie Lam also admitted last week that since hospitals and quarantine facilities may not be adequate, they may need to "relocate" in the future, so that asymptomatic confirmed patients only need to be isolated instead of hospitalized for treatment, while close contacts or even close contacts, They may need to be moved to home quarantine; the Secretary for Food and Health, Chen Zhaoshi, even pointed out that if the epidemic situation worsens in the future, asymptomatic patients or patients with mild symptoms may need to stay at home for isolation and continue to be tested for the virus if their home conditions permit.
This is also a kind of "compromise" to a certain extent. Under the rapidly changing epidemic situation, the existing resources simply cannot bear so many patients and their close contacts.
Lam Ching-choi, a member of the Executive Council and chairman of the Elderly Affairs Committee, also recently told the media that once the epidemic breaks out in residential care homes for the elderly, the medical system will face the risk of collapse.
He took a serious traffic accident as an example. Most seriously injured people can be treated in the emergency room, but when the system crashes, the injured may have to wait for an hour before an ambulance arrives. Therefore, if the emergency room is crowded with seriously ill seniors, other patients will suffer. It may take another one to two hours. Even if the injured in the traffic accident needs to undergo surgery or be sent to the intensive care unit after surgery, there may not be beds available, which may indirectly lead to the death of more non-infected people.
▼On February 5th, the enclosure inspection of Xingchang Building, Taixing Village, Tuen Mun▼
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Tighten social distancing measures to travel
The above background will also affect the effectiveness of the epidemic prevention policy itself.
In fact, the overall mortality rate of the current mainstream virus strain Omicron is still higher than that of general seasonal influenza, but due to the impact on vaccinated people, it may not be as good as Delta, Alpha and other virus strains, and the public's vigilance may decrease; The social distancing measures have been tightened many times, and the general public will inevitably feel bored and experience "anti-epidemic fatigue".
Therefore, since the actual situation is that the Omicron epidemic has been banned, the general public has begun to relax their vigilance, which objectively will always reduce the willingness of the public to obey the epidemic prevention policy.
In a press conference the day before yesterday, Carrie Lam said that after the tightening of social distancing measures, the number of public transport trips only dropped by 20% to 30%, and she described the figures as "not good enough". Going out, even if the premises are closed and there is no dine-in in restaurants, many citizens still do not heed the government's call and continue to engage in other social activities.
Some members of the Legislative Council said that this situation is not impossible to solve. The premise is that the government should give a timetable and roadmap in addition to the "gut needle", so that everyone can know what specific policies will be implemented after the vaccination rate reaches 90%. Open up the space so that the citizens have expectations and goals, and can see the exit, "Otherwise, the citizens will obey the obedient words to give injections and abide by the epidemic prevention regulations, but the policy will only get tighter and tighter, so what is the government releasing to the citizens? What message?"
Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor held a meeting on February 4, saying that those who are in close or sub-close contact in the future may need to be quarantined at home.
(Photo by Yu Junliang)
People in the establishment: "Coexistence with drugs" is a matter of timing
However, behind Hong Kong's anti-epidemic policy is not simply a matter of science and social conditions. Mainland factors also play an important role.
Some members of the pro-establishment political parties said that the current political reality is that whether Hong Kong has cleared customs with the mainland or not, the epidemic prevention strategy must be in line with the mainland. Even if the social conditions of the two places are different, at least the general direction cannot be deviated.
The person pointed out: "Carrie Lam himself said that 'dynamic clearing' does not mean complete clearing. Today, in fact, the subtext is that he knows that clearing is impossible, but (the Central Committee) has not given any new instructions for a day, and every day We can only bite the bullet and continue to do it, even if we can never finish it. This is not a simple epidemic prevention issue, but a political issue.”
Another senior pro-establishment faction revealed that in fact, everyone knows that the policy of strict lockdown and closure of premises is difficult to continue for a long time, and society always needs to move forward. The road to coexistence is a matter of timing.
The pro-establishment faction also pointed out that even in the mainland, the prevention and control strategy for the new crown epidemic is not monolithic, and mainland experts have never ruled it out. Once it reaches a certain "controllable" level, there may be room for adjustment in the policy direction.
It's just that it's too early for the mainland authorities to say, especially since the Beijing Winter Olympics are not over yet, and the two sessions in March are approaching.
A person familiar with national conditions pointed out that in response to the new arrangement of personnel at the top of the mainland government, many local officials tend to be conservative in dealing with the epidemic, and believe that the strict epidemic prevention policy will not be changed rashly.
Executive Council member Lim Cheng Choi.
(file picture)
Lin Zhengcai: "Dynamic reset" and "Coexistence with poison" are compatible
When Lin Zhengcai replied to the author, he said that the peak period of the Omicron epidemic is expected to last for a period of time. In the worst case, Hong Kong may "be forced to accept coexistence with the virus even if it is unwilling." Going up, it's hard to say.
He pointed out that the general public is prone to misunderstanding and laxity about Omicron, thinking that it is not much different from the general flu, but in fact, the patients with mild symptoms are mainly because they have been vaccinated. For example, the current vaccination rate in Singapore is over 90%. Most of the deaths are people who have not been vaccinated.
Lin Zhengcai agreed that if the government can provide a timetable and a roadmap to explain "what's next" after the vaccination rate reaches the target, it will be helpful to persuade citizens to obey the policy.
Lin Zhengcai quoted the conclusion after discussing with some experts that the ideal situation is that the vaccination rate of the whole population (including those who are not eligible for injections) reaches 90%, and the elderly also reach more than 90%, but he admits that it is difficult.
However, he pointed out that the society cannot wait indefinitely and always needs to move forward. Therefore, he reiterated that if the vaccination rate of the elderly reaches 70-80% after the current round of "Valley Needle" measures, they can also start thinking about the "exit mechanism", including quarantine time, Quarantine protocols for vaccinated people, and even social distancing restrictions.
He also pointed out that recently, he noticed that the discussion of "dynamic clearing" and "coexistence with the virus" in the society is very polar, but he believes that the two are not in conflict and are compatible: "'Coexistence' does not mean laissez-faire and everything is like some Western countries. If you don’t do it, you will not only maintain your social life, but also have a certain ability to contain the epidemic, but the prerequisite is that there are enough elderly people to get injections to ensure that the medical system does not collapse.” He believes that even mainland experts will think about the long-term “exit mechanism”. Taking into account the strengths of the epidemic prevention policies of all parties, "whether it is the mainland or Hong Kong, we need to find this way out."
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