"Emmanuel Macron's five-year term has not reversed the upward trend in violence in France"

Pierre-Marie Sève is general delegate of the

Institute for Justice

For a year, Emmanuel Macron has been dragging a pebble in his shoe.

That pebble is its safety record.

He realized it too late and has since tried to look good.

His strategies will have been the announcement of an increase in the police budget, interviews in a martial tone and above all the avoidance of the subject.

But it only takes a pebble in the shoe of a single legionnaire to hamper the march of a whole legion.

Understand here, for Emmanuel Macron, "

".

Already in 2002, it was Lionel Jospin, outgoing prime minister and favorite in the presidential election, who missed out on qualifying for the second round largely because of his security record.

So let's take a look: is Emmanuel Macron's security record really that bad?

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The first indicator that can be observed is borrowed from Alain Bauer, the pope of French criminology.

This is the homicide rate.

Concretely, this indicator measures the number of people killed and the number of people who came within a hair's breadth of being killed.

Unfortunately, this homicide rate more than doubled between 2008 and 2020.

Another figure is that of assaults (scientifically: intentional blows and injuries).

Between 2008 and 2019, assaults increased by 30%.

And if we go back even further, these intentional blows and injuries have even jumped by 142% since the year 2000. Concretely, a French person is twice as likely to be attacked in 2022 than he was in l year 2000.

Last indicator which is debated, but which cannot be forgotten.

It's sexual violence.

Between 2012 and 2019, this violence increased by 99%.

On this subject, it is dangerous to explain this increase only by the release of speech.

But where the shoe pinches really is when comparing France to its European neighbours.

To go back to the number of homicides, there were 863 in France in 2020. Italy, with a relatively equivalent population, only experienced… 285. Germany, 782 and Spain 298.

Remember that statistical research has not been easy since the abolition by Emmanuel Macron of the National Observatory of the Criminal Response, which provided the general public with most of the statistical data on the subject.

Pierre-Marie Seve

If the comparison is never easy in terms of criminal statistics, the reference website Numbéo classifies the countries according to the feelings of tourists and inhabitants.

According to this site, France is the second most dangerous country in Europe, behind Belarus, and has been for many years.

Finally, let us remember that statistical research is not as easy since the unexplained abolition, by Emmanuel Macron, of the national observatory of the criminal response, which provided the general public with most of the statistical data on the subject.

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But if the state of affairs is so bad, can we nevertheless put actions to the credit of this government?

We can doubt it.

When the Minister of Justice, a former lawyer for delinquents, affirms that the French experience a "feeling of insecurity".

When we discover 5 years later that, of the 15,000 prison places promised in 2017, only 2,500 have really come out of the ground.

When we remember the 5 to 10,000 early releases from prison decreed during confinement.

So, we can even say that the government has had an active role in the rise of insecurity and violence in our country.

France in the 1960s and 1970s was a particularly calm country with crime rates almost 4 times lower than today.

Pierre-Marie Seve

The President and his Minister of the Interior may try to hide the disaster by talking about damage to property, security has indeed seriously deteriorated under the mandate of Emmanuel Macron.

In defense of Emmanuel Macron, however, it should be noted that this increase in insecurity has existed in France for at least 20 years, if not more.

France in the 1960s and 1970s was a particularly calm country with crime rates almost 4 times lower than today.

Still, we judge a tree by its fruits, the fruits of the five-year term have not reversed the upward trend in violence in France.

Worse, they may have even made it worse.