Ukraine conflict: US secret service gives bitter figures for Russian invasion
Created: 2022-02-08 13:26
By: Sven Hauberg
A Russian propaganda video shows soldiers during an exercise: Russia's President Putin has stationed tens of thousands of soldiers on the border with Ukraine.
© picture alliance/dpa/Russian Defense Ministry Press Service/AP
Tens of thousands of dead and five million refugees: According to US experts, a Russian invasion of Ukraine could have devastating consequences.
Is it all just "scaremongering"?
Moscow - In the past few days and weeks, Russia has significantly increased its military presence on the border with Ukraine: According to US observers, President Vladimir Putin has gathered more than 100,000 soldiers in the border area, other experts even call a number of 130,000 soldiers.
A new analysis by US military and intelligence experts now shows what the consequences of a Russian invasion of Ukraine could be.
According to this, up to 50,000 Ukrainian civilians could be killed in a Russian attack, as well as up to 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers and 10,000 members of the Russian army.
The
New York Times
and the
Washington Post
reported this , citing US military and intelligence assessments that had been sent to US lawmakers and European partners in the past few days.
In addition to the many deaths, up to five million refugees would leave Ukraine, mainly for Poland, according to the analysis.
In addition, the government in Kiev could be overthrown just two days after the start of an invasion.
According to US experts, Russia currently has 70 percent of the military capacity needed for an invasion of Ukraine deployed along the border.
According to estimates by NATO and the US government, there are around 30,000 Russian soldiers in Belarus alone, which shares a 1,000-kilometer border with Ukraine.
There are also fighter jets, air defense systems and short-range missiles that can carry nuclear warheads.
Ukraine conflict: According to US experts, Putin has these options
According to the US report, Putin has also stationed about 1,500 members of special forces near the border.
These would work closely with the Russian military intelligence service GRU.
Russia also launched eleven amphibious assault ships in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean.
These could transport five battalions of Russian marines and attack Ukraine from the south.
Putin also sent a number of submarines to the Black Sea.
The invasion scenario currently circulating in Washington envisions a full-scale attack on Ukraine in what would be the largest land-based military maneuvers in Europe since the end of World War II.
However, it is uncertain whether Putin will actually pursue such a comprehensive plan.
For example, US President Joe Biden said a few weeks ago that only “limited intrusion” by Russia into Ukrainian territory would be possible.
According to US experts, Putin could choose one of five options to attack Ukraine:
a large-scale attack on all of Ukraine
an invasion only in eastern Ukraine
a coup d'état against Ukrainian President Zelenskyy
an invasion of the Donbass, which then declared itself an independent republic
an invasion of the Donbass and from there to all of eastern Ukraine
Russia could attack after the Olympics end
Should Putin actually decide to launch a large-scale invasion of Ukraine, he could wait until mid-February, according to US experts.
Because by then the ground in the border area would be frozen, which would make an invasion easier.
In addition, Putin should not invade before the end of the Winter Olympics in Beijing on February 20, lest Chinese President Xi Jinping be offended.
At the end of last week, Putin got Xi's backing for his demand that NATO should not be expanded to the east.
At the same time, however, the Chinese head of state and party leader avoided commenting specifically on the Ukraine crisis.
Following the release of the
New York Times
and
Washington Post
reports , Russia's Deputy Ambassador to the UN, Dmitry Polyanskiy, called the US analysis "madness and scaremongering."
Polyanskiy tweeted: "What if we said the US could take London in a week and cause 300,000 civilian deaths?
All based on our intelligence sources, which we don't want to disclose.
Would that feel right for Americans and Brits?
It is just as wrong for Russians and Ukrainians.”
Ukraine conflict: Olaf Scholz in Washington, Annalena Baerbock in Kiev
The US government, on the other hand, sees signs that Russia could use falsified evidence to create an excuse for an invasion of Ukraine.
Accordingly, Russia is planning to stage and film a fake attack by the Ukrainian military on Russian territory or against Russian-speaking people in eastern Ukraine.
According to the US government, the publication of the alleged Russian fake news offensive is intended to thwart it.
Russia denied the allegations.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz traveled to the USA on Sunday for his inaugural visit.
© Kay Nietfeld/dpa
Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts to prevent an escalation of the Ukraine crisis are in full swing.
On Sunday evening (February 6), German Chancellor Olaf Scholz flew to Washington to discuss the development with US President Biden.
Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock traveled to Kiev to meet her counterpart Dmytro Kuleba and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy.
It should also be about Ukraine's request for arms deliveries from Germany.
In addition, the US government has already announced that it will transfer around 3,000 additional soldiers to Europe, 1,700 of them to Poland.
300 US soldiers had already arrived in Wiesbaden, Hesse, on Saturday.
According to the
Washington Post
, there are currently around 85,000 American soldiers in Europe.