The new crown pneumonia epidemic in Hong Kong is raging. Yesterday (9th), the number of confirmed cases hit a high of about 1,100 cases.
Guo Jianan, an assistant professor at the School of Public Health and Primary Care of CUHK, said on a radio program today (10th) that the whole process from infection to diagnosis took 7 days, so yesterday’s number of confirmed cases only reflected the data of the second day of the new year.
He pointed out that if the current instantaneous transmission rate is calculated from 1 person to 1.8 people, it is expected that the next few days will be an upward cycle, and 2,600 people and 5,000 people will be infected.
But he estimates that as government-mandated social distancing measures take effect, the outbreak is expected to peak in late February to early March, before slowly ramping up and falling back.
▼The situation on the eve of the tightening of restrictions on restaurants and the closure of hair salons on February 9▼
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Guo Jianan said that the number of confirmed cases yesterday was within expectations, and pointed out that based on epidemiological knowledge, the number of confirmed cases yesterday only reflected the infection 7 days ago.
He explained that the current incubation period of the Omicron and Delta variants is 4 days, and the average from onset to diagnosis is 3 days, for a total of 7 days.
Therefore, the number of confirmed diagnoses to be announced today will reflect the situation on the third day of the Chinese New Year.
However, Guo continued to point out that on the third day of the Lunar New Year, citizens went to places with many people such as Chegong Temple, and the next number of confirmed cases would reflect the situation on the fourth day of the Lunar New Year. However, the old social distancing measures were still used until February. It was only on the 17th that he reflected the effects of the new measures after they took effect, so he expected that "the next period from February 10 to February 16 will be an upward cycle."
Guo also analyzed the real-time reproduction rate and pointed out that according to the confirmed data on the second day of the new year, each confirmed person infects 1.8 people, and the time for the Omicron and Delta variants to spread to the next generation is about 2.5 days.
He pointed out that multiplying the number of confirmed cases yesterday by 1.8 people plus 2.5 days is what other experts mean by "geometrical increase".
He calculated that 2,600 and 5,000 people will be infected in the next few days.
Kwok Kin On (left), Assistant Professor, School of Public Health and Primary Care, CUHK.
(File photo / Photo by Lu Yiming)
However, Kwok Kin-an is not only reporting bad news but not good news. He said that the current testing rate and injection numbers in Hong Kong have reached a new high, and the effect of social distancing measures will be seen in 7 days. It is estimated that the immediate transmission rate will drop from 1.8 people to 1.1 or 1.2 in a week. people.
He pointed out that although a number greater than 1 means there is still an upward trend, based on past experience, the number will drop to 1 after 12 weeks.
Taking the outbreak of Kwai Chung Village as an example, Guo said that from the initial diagnosis of more than 10 people to more than 100 people infected, the immediate transmission rate was about 1 to 4 people, and then dropped to the level of 1 during the Lunar New Year period. At that time, the daily number of confirmed cases was about dozens, which made the public feel more at ease about the epidemic in the New Year.
"People may be worried if the numbers are too exaggerated. If social distancing measures are put in place, the elderly are given injections under the physical permission of the elderly, and there is a patient queue for testing, and eventually the real-time transmission rate will slowly go back1."
Therefore, Guo estimates that the epidemic will peak from the end of February to the beginning of March, and then it will slowly run rampant and fall back.
However, he stressed that the most dangerous period is when the epidemic falls, when the public will relax and social distancing measures will be relaxed.
He pointed out that two elderly people died after being diagnosed yesterday, and called on the elderly to get injections as soon as possible to avoid the risk of death or severe illness after the diagnosis.
▼On February 9, people were tested in Central and Siu Sai Wan on Hong Kong Island▼
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