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Liang Zhuowei advocates actively considering the closure of the city if the status quo is maintained

2022-02-10T14:24:21.540Z


According to an epidemiological model conducted by the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong, if the current social distancing measures are maintained, it is expected that the peak of the epidemic will be in mid-to-late March, when the number of daily infections will reach 28,000, including asymptomatic infections.


According to an epidemiological model conducted by the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong, if the current social distancing measures are maintained, it is expected that the peak period of the epidemic will be in mid-to-late March, when the number of daily infections will reach 28,000, including asymptomatic infections, and confirmed cases will reach 28,000. To more than 10,000 people, and 15 to 20 patients will die every day, and the cumulative death toll by mid-June is about 950.


Leung Cheuk-wai, Dean of the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong, explained that the current measures can effectively reduce the Omicron transmission base to 1.5, but it does not mean that the epidemic is under control, and the base needs to be reduced to less than 1 level to effectively control the epidemic and reduce the number of confirmed cases. slope.


He believes that the most effective method at this stage is to take measures to close the city, which can curb the transmission rate up to 85%, and advocates the government to consider, otherwise the number of confirmed cases can double within a day, and added that if the government reaches zero confirmed cases by the end If the lockdown is lifted, the epidemic may rebound.


The Hong Kong University team used epidemiological models to estimate the number of confirmed cases, deaths and hospitalizations of the fifth wave of the epidemic under different circumstances.

(file picture)

The Hong Kong University team used epidemiological models to estimate the number of confirmed cases, deaths and hospitalizations of the fifth wave of the epidemic under different circumstances.

The team divided the government's social distancing measures into five levels, including the first level to strengthen social distancing measures in restaurants and other premises, and to close kindergartens and primary schools; the second level to suspend classes in all schools in Hong Kong and prohibit dine-in until 9 pm; the third level High-level civil servants are working from home, and a number of strict measures have been implemented in restaurants and other premises, prohibiting dine-in in the evening market.

Only the latest epidemic prevention arrangements are maintained. During the peak period from mid to late March, 500 people were admitted to the hospital every day.

A few days ago, the government announced to tighten social distancing measures, including banning gatherings of more than two households for the first time, and raising social distancing measures to the fourth level referred to by the team.

The team estimates that if the measures are maintained for a long time, it is expected that mid to late March will be the peak of the epidemic, and it is estimated that the number of hospital admissions will reach 400 to 500 per day, exceeding the load level of the medical system.

Between 15 and 20 people died every day, about 950 people died in mid-June, and nearly 100,000 people needed to be quarantined during the peak period

At the same time, the number of infected people can reach 28,000, including asymptomatic infections, and the number of confirmed cases can reach more than 10,000. In terms of death toll, it is estimated that 15 to 20 patients will die every day, and the cumulative death toll by mid-June will be about There are more than 950 people, and during the peak period, nearly 100,000 people will need to be quarantined due to symptoms.

▼On February 9, the enclosure inspection of Fengping Building and Queping Building in Longping Village▼


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Death toll could reach 3,000 if measures are relaxed

Wu Qi, a professor of pandemic and biostatistics in Hong Kong, pointed out that since this is the first time the Hong Kong government has implemented the fourth-level social distancing measures, it is estimated that it may not be able to last for a long time, so the team has relaxed the measures to the second and third levels. Next, make a simulation estimate.

The results show that if the measures are relaxed to the third level, it is estimated that the number of deaths will triple to 3,000 by June, and the death rate may increase by 50% to 4,231 as the medical system is overloaded. , the number of patients requiring isolation will increase to about 600,000.

As for the relaxation to the second level, Tuan Count expects the death toll to reach more than 5,000 in June, with the possibility of increasing to about 7,000 due to the collapse of the medical system.

▼The situation on the eve of the tightening of restrictions on restaurants and the closure of hair salons on February 9▼


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Liang Zhuowei pointed out that the implementation of the strictest city closure is expected to bring the epidemic under control, advocating the government to consider

Finally, the team assumes that if Hong Kong can implement the strict lockdown measures at level 5 within one to two weeks, the death toll will be greatly reduced to 115 by June, and the medical system will not be overloaded.

Liang Zhuowei, Dean of the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong, explained that according to past data, without implementing any social distancing measures, the Omicron transmission base can reach 7.2, that is, one person can infect seven people.

Lockdown can curb the transmission rate by 85%, otherwise the number of confirmed cases can double in one day

The current level 4 prevention and control measures can reduce the base to 1.5.

However, Liang Zhuowei emphasized that even if one person can only infect 1.5 people, it does not mean that the epidemic is under control. It is necessary to reduce the base to a level below 1 to effectively control the epidemic and reduce the number of confirmed diagnoses. The most effective method at this stage It is to take measures to close the city, which can curb the transmission rate up to 85%, otherwise the number of confirmed cases can double in one day.

He added that if the government lifts the lockdown before reaching zero confirmed cases, the epidemic may rebound.

Liang Zhuowei said that even if the current epidemic prevention measures are tightened, it may not be possible to curb the immediate transmission rate, emphasizing that more stringent measures are needed, whether through voluntary, legislative or administrative means to control the epidemic.

The current epidemic prevention measures are intensifying, and I am afraid it may not be possible to curb the immediate transmission rate. It is necessary to reduce the base to a level below 1 to effectively control the epidemic. The most effective method at this stage is to take measures to close the city. 85%, otherwise the number of confirmed cases can double within a day. If the government lifts the closure of the city at the end of zero confirmed cases, the epidemic may rebound.

Leung Cheuk-wai, Dean of HKU Faculty of Medicine

Leung Cheuk-wai, Dean of the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong.

(file picture)

He also pointed out that, having noticed the travel data of citizens' Octopus, since the fourth wave of the epidemic, the effect of social distancing measures in reducing the flow of people has gradually weakened. level of the epidemic.

With the sharp rise in the daily number of confirmed cases, Leung Cheuk-wai was asked if Hong Kong should continue to pursue the "zero-clearing" approach, and he bluntly said, "Now is the time to seek facts and face them bravely, look at the evidence and the facts, and don't bite the bullet." A number of recommendations were made regarding the outbreak.

Now is the time to seek truth from facts, face it bravely, look at the evidence and the facts, and don't bite the bullet... The Dean of the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong, Leung Cheuk-wai, responded to whether to continue to pursue zero-emissions

The HKU Faculty of Medicine recommends:


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In order to increase the vaccination rate of the public, especially the elderly, residential care homes for the elderly will immediately implement a tacit consent mechanism, that is, to vaccinate the elderly without objection


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Workers of important infrastructure or providing essential services to the society, including staff of residential care homes for the elderly, undergo a rapid test every day before going to work


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The government regularly distributes test kits to citizens so that they can self-check every other day


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Actively consider closing the city


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Considering the newly diagnosed patients tested in private laboratories, the samples do not need to be confirmed by the public laboratory testing party, or the method of sampling review should be changed


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Provide support for home isolation or home treatment, including thermometers and blood oxygen meters, so that they can monitor their physical conditions and seek medical treatment in a timely manner


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Private hospitals accept non-coronavirus patients for public hospitals and free up beds in public hospitals


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Increase the vaccination rate of school-age children to 90%


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Compare the quarantine requirements for people returning to Hong Kong from other places with the current requirements for close contacts to be quarantined at home

▼On February 9, people were tested in Central and Siu Sai Wan on Hong Kong Island▼


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In addition, Leung Cheuk-wai also pointed out that he noticed that many confirmed patients need to wait at home to be admitted to the hospital, and the waiting time for some people is measured in days. Therefore, the following tips are provided to the public:

Leung Cheuk-wai suggested to patients awaiting admission:


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Patients and family members who live with them must wear masks at all times except when sleeping, brushing their teeth, and eating


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Avoid cooking food by people who are diagnosed or under quarantine to avoid the spread of the virus through food


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Diagnosed patients should eat separately in a separate room, otherwise they should eat at a separate time


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The confirmed patients need to disinfect the bathroom after taking a shower


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Regular monitoring of physical condition with thermometer and blood oxygen meter

The Correctional Services Department has extended the suspension of visits to relatives and friends until February 23. After the notice date, the number of visitors will be limited. Mandatory testing will be imposed | At 4:00 a.m., people are already queuing up to send funds to avoid waiting for long-term increase of testing stations to avoid the epidemic | People forced many people in Shenzhen Bay to test in isolation and closed areas overnight | Quepinglou and Fengpinglou in Longping Village were unsealed, and a total of 14 preliminary positive cases were found. A family of four patients was diagnosed with dyspnea. The widow of the patient who was called home after phlegm and vomiting suddenly stated that the hospital only sent a school nurse to deal with it. Brother Mai Mingshi also made a confession to seal the area | 73 cases were found in Liangjie Building, Liangjing Village, and 3 cases were unsealed. The confirmed patient waited at home for 4 days and was not sent to the hospital.

Source: hk1

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