France has decided to withdraw its troops from Mali, the sub-Saharan African country where they arrived in January 2013 to stop the jihadist advance and prevent the fall of the capital, Bamako.
But Paris does not want to go alone.
The image of the French withdrawal evokes the recent NATO debacle in Afghanistan and could be devastating for President Emmanuel Macron just two months before the first round of the Elysée elections.
For this reason, according to diplomatic sources, Paris seeks the support of European partners in its departure.
This joint withdrawal would mean the abandonment of one of the main European projects against radicalism in the African region of the Sahel.
France, which holds the presidency of the EU this semester, has called a videoconference of defense ministers for this Friday to analyze the situation in the Sahel.
Spain, the main contributor to the European training mission EUTM-Mali, with 530 soldiers (half of the total), is committed to continuing in the country.
Macron already announced last July his intention to reduce the 5,100 troops of Operation Barkhane in the fight against jihadism by 40% and replace them, in part, with the smaller special forces of the new Operation Takuba.
However, the situation has precipitated as a result of the expulsion, on January 31, of the French ambassador to Mali, Joël Meyer, after the head of French diplomacy, Jean-Yves Le Drian, described the board as illegitimate government that governs Bamako and brand his decisions as “irresponsible”.
Paris has already informed its European partners of its decision to transfer most of the troops it now has in the country to neighboring Niger.
Bamako, for its part, has expelled the Danish contingent from the Takuba force, alleging that it did not have authorization to deploy, and Norway has announced that it will withdraw its troops.
Military sources assume that this movement will end up dragging the fifteen European countries (including Spain) that participate in said mission.
The problem arises with the EUTM-Mali mission, training the Malian Army, which does not depend on France but on the EU.
The sources consulted assure that Paris has not expressly requested the departure of the European mission, but it has indicated that it is not feasible to keep it in Mali without the presence of French troops, which until now are the ones that have assumed the fight against jihadism.
EUTM-Mali has 1,100 troops from 25 countries.
Both the EU High Representative for Foreign Policy, Josep Borrell, and the Spanish Government, according to the sources consulted, are in favor of maintaining the training mission, both because of Mali's strategic position in the Sahel and for fear that the vacuum let the Europeans be occupied by Russia.
That substitution already happens.
Allied military intelligence sources put the number of Russian soldiers deployed in Mali at 1,100;
some are regular soldiers and others are mercenaries from the Wagner company, which the Kremlin uses for tasks whose responsibility it does not want to assume.
The Spanish Defense Minister, Margarita Robles, spoke last Friday by phone with her French counterpart, Florence Parly;
and the Foreign Minister, José Manuel Albares, met on Wednesday with Le Drian in Lyon (France).
The continuity of the European military presence in Mali will largely depend on the decision of Germany, which is the second largest contributor to the EUTM-Mali, with 325 soldiers, and is the pillar of Minusma (the United Nations mission to Mali) with 1,300 troops.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock wondered last week if "in view of the measures taken by Mali, the prerequisites for our joint engagement remain in place."
"Commitment," she warned, "is not an end in itself."
The German Parliament must vote in May on the continuity of its military presence in Mali.
Beyond the political will of the Europeans, experts stress that the withdrawal of French troops could cause a rapid deterioration in security that would make the continuity of the EUTM-Mali unviable, despite the fact that its mandate does not expire until 2024. Military sources admit that, in the best of cases, it will be necessary to carry out a "deep review" of the mission, which was in the expansion phase, with the sending of mobile patrols to different parts of the country, the construction of new bases and its extension to the other G5 Sahel countries (Niger, Burkina Faso, Chad and Mauritania).
A demonstration against the presence of French soldiers in Mali, on the 4th in Bamako. PAUL LORGERIE (REUTERS)
In addition to the military difficulties, there are serious political obstacles.
At the origin of the conflict with France is the intention of the current military junta to perpetuate itself in power, postponing the elections for five years and failing to fulfill its commitment to hold them in February.
Last May, the military, led by Colonel Assimi Goïta, carried out the second coup d'état, interrupting the transition that began after President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita was overthrown in August 2020.
Last January, the Economic Commission of West African States (Cedeao), which brings together Mali's neighboring countries, adopted tough sanctions against the Bamako military regime, which include the withdrawal of ambassadors, the closure of borders and the suspension of commercial exchanges, except basic products.
The EU has supported the sanctions of the African organization, but maintains its mission of training the Army that illegally occupies power.
The French Army refuses to act with Russian mercenaries
Marc Bassets
After the expulsion of the French ambassador from Mali, French diplomatic sources supported the idea that action in the Sahel only makes sense if it is concerted.
"International consultation and coordination is essential because this is not a Franco-Malian problem," they argued.
"It only makes sense to participate when you can act effectively on the threat," they pointed out to justify the decision to withdraw their country's troops from Mali.
“Staying in one place is not an end in itself.
We must remain committed, but where we can have the levers to act.
And where the conditions to have an effective action against these terrorist groups do not exist, we should not try at all costs to continue”, they added.
The presence of French mercenaries in Mali is one of the reasons given by the same sources to justify the departure of the French military.
“It is inconceivable that the French Army is directly or indirectly linked to Wagner.
He is not a fellow like the others.
It is a group that works with rules of engagement that have nothing to do with ours.”
France denies that its departure from Mali means that it is throwing in the towel in the fight against jihadism in the Sahel.
“There is a threat that is there and it has two names that we know: Al Qaeda and Islamic State.
These organizations say in their writings that West Africa is their main target.
Its agenda is international, with foreign projection, even towards Europe, and we are interested in being able to continue acting and limit its expansion.
Fighting them is not just being in Mali.
We must be able to act with the entire region,” they explained.
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