Lauterbach calculates “500 death scenario” – virologist counters: “an important point has been deliberately omitted”

Created: 02/11/2022 11:32 am

By: Bedrettin Bölükbasi

According to Health Minister Karl Lauterbach, up to 500 deaths a day can result if the restrictions are relaxed too quickly.

© Kay Nietfeld/dpa

Karl Lauterbach predicted up to 500 deaths a day if the corona measures were relaxed too quickly.

According to virologist Kekulé, an important detail is missing here.

Munich – It is a dramatic scenario: Federal Health Minister Karl Lauterbach (SPD) expects up to 500 deaths a day if the corona measures in Germany are relaxed too early.

In the debate about easing, he again warned against lifting some pandemic regulations too quickly.

However, Lauterbach raised questions with his scenario.

Also with the virologist Alexander Kekulé.

According to him, the health minister's equation is missing a crucial detail.

Lauterbach scenario for corona easing: "up to 500 deaths a day" - ambiguities about his bill

"I calculated how many people would die with Israel's strategy if we proceeded in a similar way," emphasized Lauterbach on ZDF.

The calculation gives "a quota of maybe 400, 500 people who would die in Germany if we made these openings like this," claimed the SPD politician.

In Germany, however, between 100 and 150 people are currently dying every day, which is "still too much".

This is how he justified his clear rejection of easing.

How exactly Lauterbach proceeded with his calculation and how he calculated remains unclear.

Was it an invoice or was it just an estimate based on the health minister's statement?

A corresponding query from

and

left the Ministry of Health unanswered.

But the Lauterbach scenario could actually occur, says statistician Christian Hesse.

“If you consider that with the omicron subtype BA.1, which is widespread in our country, 0.08 percent of infected patients who show symptoms die, this results in the number of 500 daily deaths cited by Health Minister Karl Lauterbach within a few weeks , then also with an upward trend,” he confirmed to

.

Corona loosening: Virologist Kekulé sees a missing factor in the Lauterbach scenario with up to 500 deaths

The virologist Alexander Kekulé is not convinced by Lauterbach's statements, because he sees a crucial detail that is missing in the Lauterbache scenario.

One of the bills is “an unknown person” who he “studiously left out,” said the virologist in the 275th episode of his MDR podcast.

For him, a clear separation between Delta and Omikron is an essential factor.

A factor to which Lauterbach's forecast did not provide an answer.

The Minister of Health claimed that if the wave were extended, there would be more deaths.

However, the characteristics of the wave at this point are particularly important.

A point of view that Kekulé also takes: "How many of the intensive care patients and of the deceased were actually Delta patients?

So that's the big question because we have an ebbing delta wave and a massively exploding omicron wave.”

“What percentage of those who died were omicron patients at all?” the virologist asks and states that only when these questions are answered can one say with certainty that lengthening the omicron wave leads to more deaths will lead.

Kekulé accused the Minister of Health of simply ignoring this point - apparently even though he is aware of the situation: "And since Mr. Lauterbach knows that of course very well, he knows his stuff, I can point out at this point that he who studiously omitted this important point.”

Corona data situation: Kekulé demands more precise data from the RKI - statisticians angry about Lauterbach and Wieler

For a better assessment of the situation, Alexander Kekulé also called for more effort from the Robert Koch Institute.

"I think the RKI should answer the question - I think that's very important for understanding what's happening right now - what percentage of those who are in the intensive care unit and are seriously ill or even die, because actually Omikron -are infected," emphasized the virologist.

During the pandemic, the RKI was often criticized for the sometimes confusing data situation and incorrect reports.

The medical statistician Gerd Antes has now complained on Twitter that there has been no improvement and about Lauterbach's prognosis.

RKI boss Lothar Wieler also got something from the criticism.

"No wonder Lauterbach has to offer 500 deaths, after all he's the boss.

A problem with that is that the employee is also wrong with his 400,” wrote Antes.

He refers to a controversial statement by Wieler to

at the end of November.

“If 50,000 people become infected, 400 of them will die,” was the RKI boss’s prediction at the time.

But even with the Delta variant, the number predicted by Wieler did not come about.

Regarding the latest Lauterbach scenario, Antes tweeted: "No student gets away with such a claim without justification.

Why a minister?

Because it could be embarrassing?”