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Spring 2022: weather models show a clear trend - forecasts for March, April and May are available

2022-02-11T14:29:15.138Z


Spring 2022: weather models show a clear trend - forecasts for March, April and May are available Created: 02/11/2022 15:17 By: Martina Lippl Spring 2022: DWD annual forecast for March, April and May shows a deviation of 1 to 2 degrees from the climate mean. © DWD The first forecasts for spring 2022 are here. A clear trend is emerging in the leading weather models. March, April and May bring t


Spring 2022: weather models show a clear trend - forecasts for March, April and May are available

Created: 02/11/2022 15:17

By: Martina Lippl

Spring 2022: DWD annual forecast for March, April and May shows a deviation of 1 to 2 degrees from the climate mean.

© DWD

The first forecasts for spring 2022 are here.

A clear trend is emerging in the leading weather models.

March, April and May bring that.

Munich – For many people, the winter of 2021/2022 has already been ticked off.

But what will spring 2022 bring us?

The first forecasts of long-term weather models are already available.

Time to take a look at the weather for the coming months.

"It's going to be a very warm spring," summed up meteorologist Dominik Jung from

Q.me

t

when asked by

Merkur.de

.

The weather model of the American weather and ocean agency NOAA assumes a temperature deviation of 2 degrees throughout spring.

According to the European model ECMWF and the so-called seasonal forecast of the German Weather Service (DWD), spring 2022 is too warm with 1 to 2 degrees above the long-term climate mean.

Concrete weather forecasts cannot be made with these weather models, emphasizes weather expert Jung.

Whether it snows at Easter, for example.

But when it comes to temperatures and precipitation, the long-term models indicate a trend in the weather.

They give an outlook on how a weather situation could develop.

Too warm and too dry: weather trend for March 2022

According to NOAA, March 2022 will be very warm and very dry.

In Germany it is even almost 3 degrees warmer - this mainly affects the Alpine region.

"Three degrees warmer than the average climate for the years 1991 to 2020 is a lot," says Jung.

The meteorologist explains that the past 30 years have already been warm years.

The US weather service NOAA has changed the reference period in the calculations.

The mean climate value for the models is now based on data from the past 30 years (1991 to 2020).

April 2022 could therefore be a little too warm.

According to the weather expert, the ensemble forecast does not show such large outliers.

The merry month of May 2022 was then clearly too warm again.

The deviation from the normal value would be up to 2 degrees.

But not only here in Germany, also in Western and Northern Europe.

According to the NASA forecast, it could even be up to 3 degrees too warm there.

The precipitation forecast for spring 2022 is mixed.

According to NOAA calculations, there is far too little precipitation in the south, and the value is also below average in the rest of the country.

When does spring 2022 start in Germany?

  • Meteorological beginning of spring

    2021

     is on March 1st.

    This date is always fixed.

    Weather experts always divide the four seasons into three full months.

    Spring includes March, April and May.

    This makes it easier to compare the data.

  • Calendar (astronomical) beginning of spring 2022

     falls on March 20th.

    This is determined by the position of the sun.

    This is when the sun is vertical over the equator.

    Day and night are of equal length on this day. 

Spring 2021 was exceptionally cold - will spring 2022 create higher temperatures?

According to the DWD, spring 2021 in Germany was far too cool.

Compared to the current comparison period from 1991 to 2020, the deviation was -1.7 degrees.

The decisive factors for the negative deviation were the coldest April in 40 years and the cool May.

Spring 2021 had a lot to offer:

Spring 2021

On April 6, 2021, a temperature of -13.6 degrees was measured in Meßstetten on the Swabian Alb.

On Mother's Day on May 9th, however, the first hot day of 2021 was measured at 31.3 degrees, in Waghäusel-Kirrlach, southwest of Heidelberg.

The mean temperature in spring 2021 was 7.2 degrees.

It was the first spring that was too cold since 2013. According to the DWD, spring 2021 broke through a series of continuously warm springs in Germany with its values.

It was already over 25 degrees on March 27th and 31st, 2021, reports meteorologist Dominik Jung.

"That could happen again this year."

(ml)

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2022-02-11

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