The covid-19 data that states use to lift restrictions

Businessman weighs in on stopping wearing masks in New York 3:53

(CNN) --

Several states that recently announced plans to lift some COVID-19 restrictions related to wearing masks indoors or in schools have at least two things in common.

For one thing, hospitalization rates are declining, and all but one have a higher proportion of fully vaccinated residents than the national average.

Most of the governors of those states have included these figures in their decisions to lift certain mitigation measures against covid-19.

That has raised questions about whether these metrics should play a larger role in decisions about restrictions across the country than Covid-19 case counts.

Meanwhile, changes to phase out state mask mandates conflict with guidance from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which indicates that Masks should continue to be used in areas with "high" or "substantial" transmission of COVID-19.

This includes approximately 99% of the counties in the United States.

And much of the country is still unvaccinated against Covid-19: only around a quarter of the population has received a booster shot against the coronavirus.

The CDC is working to review and possibly update its guidance on the use of masks.

But for now, the states appear to be outpacing the White House in planning for a post-omcron period.

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The odds of dying from covid-19 without the vaccine 0:44

States report high levels of vaccination, low levels of hospitalization

Although many indoor mask mandates are implemented at the city and county level, six states still have them in place: California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Mexico, Oregon and Washington.

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A growing number of states -- most with Democratic governors -- plan to lift some of their COVID-19 restrictions in the coming weeks.

In particular, the mandates for the use of masks in closed places or in schools.

Those states include California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, and Rhode Island.

Many of these states were the first to adopt the strict security measures against covid-19.

Additionally, vaccination rates in all but one have exceeded the national average.

Across the United States, 64.3% of the population is fully vaccinated, according to figures as of February 10.

The proportion of people fully vaccinated in each of those states, according to the most recent data from the CDC IS:

• 66.8% in Delaware and Illinois

• 68.2% in Oregon

• 69.6% in California

• 73.5% in New Jersey

• 74.8% in New York

• 77% in Massachusetts

• 77.2% in Connecticut

• 79.7% in Rhode Island

Only one state that recently revoked its mask mandate had a percentage of its population fully vaccinated that was lower than the national average: Nevada, at 59%.

Vermont and Rhode Island are tied for the highest vaccination rates in the country.

79.7% of its population is fully vaccinated against covid-19 as of Thursday.

"Vermont has not implemented any statewide mandatory mitigation measures since June, when we became the first state to vaccinate 80% of our eligible population," wrote Jason Maulucci, press secretary for the Office of the Governor Phil Scott, in an email to CNN on Thursday.

"Since then, we have continued to lead the nation in many vaccination categories, including the percentage of the total population vaccinated, the percentage of the pediatric population vaccinated (by far), and booster vaccination rates," Maulucci wrote.

"As a result, even during waves of delta and omicron variants when our cases were high, Vermont's hospitalization rate has consistently been one of the lowest, if not the lowest, in the nation."

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In Rhode Island, where some Covid-19 restrictions such as indoor mask wearing and vaccination testing protocols will be lifted this Friday, infection rates are down about 94% since January.

“We are the second most vaccinated state in the country.

Right now, we're the third-most booster vaccinated state in the country," Rhode Island Governor Dan McKee told CNN's Alisyn Camerota on Thursday.

In his intervention he seemed to emphasize vaccination rates more than community transmission.

Although the state currently has high levels of community transmission, "we know the trends are really moving very sharply in the other direction," McKee said.

"I think we've done the right thing for Rhode Island."

On the international stage, Denmark was the first country in Europe to remove the mandates for the use of masks, vaccine passports, isolation protocols "and everything else".

But the country is different from the United States "in some important ways," Andy Slavitt, a former senior adviser to the Biden administration's Covid-19 Response Coordinator and former acting administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, noted in a series of tweets this Thursday.

They have 81% of their population vaccinated twice and 61% boosted, as well as universal health coverage, manageable intensive care units and "a first-rate surveillance capacity," Slavitt wrote.

“The United States does not have enough people vaccinated, it has full hospitals, it has huge access challenges, massive inequality.”

Societies like Denmark make these decisions with the legitimate hope that people will take care of each other even if the law doesn't compel them.

A society with 81% vax rates that is against mandates is one that doesn't need them.

The US shouldn't be so confident.

twenty/

— Andy Slavitt 🇺🇸💉 (@ASlavitt) February 10, 2022

But at the local level, "you don't have to look far" in the United States to find state governors following a similar path to Denmark's in lifting COVID-19 restrictions, Slavitt added.

"These are responsible Governors in states that have done a good job of handling the pandemic," he tweeted.

“They have higher vaccination rates than most of the country and cultural fights over masks are relatively minimal.”

WHO: Lifting restrictions does not mean the end of covid-19 9:46

Go beyond community transmission to lift restrictions

CDC guidance on mask use in communities with "high" or "substantial" transmission of COVID-19 defines substantial transmission in a given area as fewer than 50 to 100 new cases per 100,000 people in the past week and at least 8% but less than 10% test positivity in the past week.

High transmission is at least 100 new cases per 100,000 people in the last week and 10% or more positive tests.

With the rise in the use of home tests and the spread of the omicron variant, it may be time to shift metrics on Covid-19, from case counts and test positivity, to metrics on severe illness and death, Lori said. Tremmel Freeman, CEO of the National Association of County and City Health Officials, told CNN on Wednesday.

"When you think about what county and local health departments face in making decisions, and the metrics that are out there about current case rates and test positivity, those are community leading indicators that were defined long ago. a long time," Freeman said.

“What is changing over time is our continued ability to keep track of those things with the rise of [variant] omicron coming onto the scene and the expansion of home testing, along with people at various stages of the efforts. of mitigation throughout the country," he said.

"I don't know how much longer the current community indicators can continue to be useful. And then what we're hearing from the territory is just general public fatigue with the pandemic, mask wearing and mitigation strategies."

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He gets upset because they ask him to wear a mask 0:40

From the east coast to the west coast lifting restrictions against covid-19

Some states in the United States never had restrictions such as mask mandates, and a few went as far as banning their mandatory use in schools.

Now, they continue to face high hospitalization rates and low vaccine uptake.

The approach was different in states that recently announced changes to restrictions.

New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy announced Monday that the state's mask mandate in schools will be lifted on March 7.

And he noted that the decision was based on "significant" declines in multiple COVID-19 metrics statewide.

"Our case counts, hospitalizations, point positivity rate, transmission rate are all falling," Murphy told CNN's Jake Tapper on Monday.

"We have overwhelmingly adhered to the CDC guidance. The reason we are taking this step today is our reality in New Jersey," Murphy continued.

"We're now in a drastically different place than the norm right now across the country, so we feel like we can disengage and take this step."

In New York, Gov. Kathy Hochul said at a briefing Wednesday that "cases are down overall, positivity rates are down, hospitalizations are down, cases per 100,000 population are down, and new hospitalizations are down. ".

She also noted that "vaccines and boosters have increased, and our hospital capacity has increased."

Leading to the suspension of the state's requirement to wear masks or vaccines for indoor commercial use starting Thursday.

Hochul referred to the data as "a beautiful picture."

For its part, Oregon plans to eliminate general mask requirements for indoor public places no later than March 31, health officials announced Monday, and mask requirements for schools will be lifted on March 31.

State officials pointed to hospitalization data as the rationale behind their plan.

By the end of March, public health specialists predict that around 400 or fewer Oregonians would be hospitalized with Covid-19, the level of hospitalizations the state experienced before the Omicron variant began to spread, according to the Health Authority. from Oregon.

However, state health officials stressed that people in Oregon should maintain mask requirements for now as hospitalizations for Covid-19 peak and the health care system struggles to treat large numbers. of seriously ill patients.

"The evidence from Oregon and across the country is clear: masks save lives by slowing the spread of COVID-19," Dr. Dean Sidelinger, a state health officer and epidemiologist, said in a statement Monday.

"We should see Covid-19 hospitalizations decline by the end of March because many Oregonians wear masks and take other steps to protect themselves and others, like getting a booster shot or vaccinating their children. At that time , it will be safer to lift the mask requirements."

In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom touted the stabilization of the state's hospitalization rates as a contributing factor in planning to lift mask mandates.

California's "case rate is down 65% from our peak for omicron. Our hospitalizations have leveled off statewide," Newsom posted on Twitter Monday.

The state now plans to suspend its closed-space mask requirement on Tuesday.

In a statement emailed to CNN on Wednesday, the California Department of Public Health also noted that "Covid-19 cases and the rate of community transmission have been steadily declining statewide since early January, and hospitalizations are stabilizing or declining in most regions of the state."

Public health experts and infectious disease specialists remain divided on whether these states are rushing or smart to lay out plans to phase out masks early.

"These transition periods are always the most challenging," Dr. Richard Besser, former acting director of the CDC, told CNN's Jim Sciutto on Wednesday.

"If you listen to the public health experts, to the infectious disease experts, you don't see uniformity of opinion. You see a lot of different opinions in terms of, is this the right time to try to remove some of the public's safety measures? health out there?" Besser said.

“Politicians, our elected officials, have to weigh all those factors when they come up with their recommendations.

It's a complicated playing field right now.

I think it would be wrong for any governor to ban mandates."

The White House thinks about life after the pandemic

The decisions to suspend state-level mask mandates come after some leaders pushed President Joe Biden and his administration at the White House last week for clearer guidelines on how to transition the current pandemic into an endemic phase. with the coronavirus.

Endemic means that a disease has a constant presence in a population, but does not overwhelm health systems or affect an alarming number of people, as is often the case in a pandemic.

Biden and his administration's public health team have been consulting outside health experts and others for weeks on how best to transition to a new phase of the pandemic.

Sources told CNN that the administration's top health officials are evaluating in real time how to handle federal guidance on mitigation measures, including the use of masks, and there is an internal recognition that the United States is entering a new phase. .

A key component of the discussion has been what metrics will now determine when communities should implement safety measures, such as the use of masks.

In earlier phases of the pandemic, the focus was on the number of cases.

But now, hospital capacity, hospitalization rates and mortality rates are considered important factors.

An administration official described this as an "important commitment" as officials are identifying a new national framework for public health guidance.

"We want to be deliberate about it and make sure we implement the right decisions but we can also clearly communicate it to a diverse country, where one state may look different than another," the official said.

The CDC has also been reviewing its guidance on mitigation measures, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the agency's director, said at a virtual briefing at the White House on Wednesday.

"We certainly understand the need and desire to be flexible," Walensky said.

"Cases and hospitalizations are going down. This, of course, is encouraging and that leads us, of course, to review all of our guidance. At this time, we continue to recommend the use of masks in areas of high and substantial transmission. That is a lot of the public right now."

When pressed by CNN's Kaitlan Collins on whether Americans should follow CDC guidance or that of governors, Walensky said such mitigation decisions would still be made "at the local level."

"They, as I understand it, on a lot of these decisions, they're using a staged approach. Not all of these decisions are being made to stop things tomorrow, but they're looking at a staged approach. So I would say, again, they have to be made." at the local level," Walensky said.

And she added that she was "really encouraged" by the ongoing decline in cases and hospitalizations in the United States and that the CDC continues to "work on our guidance" regarding lifting COVID-19 restrictions like mandatory mask wearing. .

-- CNN's Kevin Liptak, Kaitlan Collins and MJ Lee contributed to this report.

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