Against the backdrop of growing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, the Russian ruble is losing ground sharply against the dollar - erasing about half of its strengthening in the past two weeks.
Since the first reports that Russia intends to invade its neighbor, the Russian currency has weakened by almost 3%.
This is after the ruble strengthened by about 6.5% in the two weeks before against the background of rising oil prices.
This morning (Monday) trading in rubles opened down about half a percent against the dollar, and is now trading at a level of 76.87 rubles to the dollar.
Against the euro, the ruble is falling at a similar rate - and is now trading around 87.1 rubles per euro.
It should be noted that these changes in the Russian currency are not as sharp as expected, due to rising oil prices.
Russia is considered one of the leading oil producers in the world, and there is a high correlation between the price of oil and the ruble exchange rate.
Since last Friday, the price of oil has risen by more than 5%, which is holding back the weakening of the ruble against the currencies.
More than 30 Russian ships hold a joint exercise near the Crimean peninsula, Tuesday // Photo: Reuters
While the world's major stock exchanges are recording declines, crude oil prices, on the other hand, are experiencing rises - whose impact is likely to eventually reach both gasoline and the price we will have to pay for refueling at gas stations.
The price of a Brent oil barrel is $ 95.65, an increase of $ 1.21 (about 1.3%) per barrel compared to the previous price.
West Texas U.S. oil is also nearing its peak, now standing at a future price of $ 94.38 a barrel - very close to the 2014 high, when the price of a barrel was $ 94.94.
Here, too, there is an increase of $ 1.28, or 1.4%, relative to the previous price.
Edward Moya, an analyst at OANDA, estimates that in the event that a war between the parties does break out, barrel prices will skyrocket to more than $ 100 per barrel.
"The market is very sensitive and may rise rapidly due to the situation in Ukraine," he said.
Forces of the National Guard of Ukraine during training in the north of the country (archive), Photo: IPI.
Another reason for the rise in prices is that oil-producing countries are failing to meet global demand for oil barrels.
The countries are struggling to pump 400,000 barrels a day until March, but according to the World Energy Organization, a gap of 900,000 barrels was created in January, but according to the US Bank Corporation "Morgan" the real shortage is 1.2 million barrels, what Which could lead to a significant price increase - to $ 125 per barrel.
Also, a review published this morning by Bank Leumi said that from an economic point of view, Russia has an interest in keeping the conflict with Ukraine on the global agenda, in order to increase the country's revenues while avoiding civilian pressure, which could prevail in tense times.
The review further states that if Russia is subjected to economic sanctions from the West due to the invasion it may carry out into Ukraine, it is possible that the price of oil will skyrocket in the short term as well.
"The resolution of the conflict diplomatically, if at all possible in the short term, and the surprise removal of the threat over Ukraine, could halt the rise in the price of oil," it said.
Participated in the preparation of the article: Assaf Golan
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