All is not lost for Biden ahead of the 2024 elections (Analysis)

(CNN) --

At first glance, the number is surprising: A majority, 51%, of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters said they would prefer the party nominate a different candidate over President Joe Biden by 2024.

That sounds like a catastrophic find, doesn't it?

Democrats would rather see someone, anyone, other than Biden as their candidate in the next presidential election.

At about this point in Barack Obama's presidency, nearly 8 in 10 Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters (79%) wanted the party to re-nominate him.

Panic!

Mermaids!

Chaos!

Except, well, maybe it's not.

Although Biden's numbers are bad, they are better than you might think.

Here's why.

The poll question doesn't specifically ask whether respondents want to see Biden or Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren or Gavin Newsom or Kamala Harris as the 2024 candidate. It asks whether they think the party should re-nominate Biden or choose "a candidate different".

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That "different" candidate can be anyone.

And that candidate is usually very different for, say, a liberal Democrat than for a moderate Democrat.

Or for a Democrat living in Kansas versus a Democrat living in New York.

Very few voters are thinking of the same “different” candidate.

In fact, those who said they wanted someone other than Biden were asked if there was someone specific they hoped to see nominated.

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In total, only 12% of Democratic line voters have a candidate other than Biden in mind for 2024.

Think of it like this: you go to a restaurant.

You order the fish.

Your dish arrives.

You're about halfway through finishing your dish, and it tastes a little too fishy.

The waiter comes over and asks if you want to continue eating the fish or if you want another dish.

At that moment, your mind is likely to think of your ideal dish, whether or not they have it on the menu.

It is very likely that you will get rid of your current food to opt for the new dish, whatever it is that you have conjured up in your mind.

Now, consider the same scenario, except when you're halfway through the fish, the waiter comes over and says he'd be happy to swap your fish for the chicken main course.

Now, you had already chosen fish over chicken for some reason: maybe you didn't like how it was prepared or you just didn't feel like chicken.

In this case, you are much more likely to keep the fish.

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Here's the thing: The choices for 2024, assuming there is even a choice on the Democratic side, would be between Biden and another specific candidate.

That candidate, whoever he is, will have his own strengths and weaknesses.

For some Democrats desperately looking for an alternative to Biden, that candidate will be the perfect choice.

For many others, however, that other candidate will not be at all what they imagined when they told a pollster that they would prefer someone other than the president as the party's candidate in 2024.

Biden will not face a generic "different candidate."

She will face another specific politician.

And that means that she will almost inevitably fare better against that person, whoever he is, than against some other idealized candidate.

None of this is to say that Biden is in a strong position right now.

He is not.

Six in 10 independent voters who lean Democratic would prefer that Democrats nominate someone else.

A similar number of liberals, 57%, say the same.

What he means is that these figures do not say that Biden would lose a primary in 2024. Even if Democratic voters are not thrilled with him, any other candidate who challenged him would also be flawed, and that would mean that he or she would have a far less contest. prolific against Biden than the generic "different candidate."

US ElectionsJoe Biden