Will Putin attack Ukraine?
2:59
(CNN) --
The buildup of Russian forces near the Ukrainian border continues apace, with everything from submarines and amphibious landing ships in the Black Sea to short-range ballistic missiles, tanks and guns. around the northeastern border of Ukraine.
CNN geolocated and authenticated videos of these movements on social media, though it is likely that there are many more that have gone unrecorded.
Some of the videos come from official sources;
most are from TikTok or YouTube.
They are analyzed by online observers and often supplement the satellite images.
Convoys near Belgorod
Here is a convoy on the move near Belgorod in western Russia, just across the border from the large Ukrainian city of Kharkiv:
Military equipment in Obtyabrskiy, Belgorod Oblast.
pic.twitter.com/CZZcb2j5fP
– Michael Sheldon (@Michael1Sheldon) February 13, 2022
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There is also plenty of other evidence of the military buildup in the Belgorod region.
CNN geolocated these videos in the town of Sereteno, about 24 kilometers from the border.
They were uploaded on Sunday, and show tanks moving through the area.
Looks like 1st Tank Army in Seretino, Belgorod Oblast.
MSTA-S, Borisoglebsk-2, and more.
pic.twitter.com/DERomxBpgk
— Michael Sheldon (@Michael1Sheldon) February 14, 2022
pic.twitter.com/15Ytu1O5JS
— Michael Sheldon (@Michael1Sheldon) February 14, 2022
These videos can be geolocated in this place:
Russian convoy moving north
night movements
Russian forces also move through the area at night, unloading tanks from trains.
There is more snow here than in the south.
CNN geolocated this video in a town near Belgorod:
@user16ki560o55
♬ оригинальный звук - Равиль Аладинов
Tanks around Voronezh
The area around Voronezh also seems to be busy.
A large collection of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles was filmed in the last two days from a passing train.
According to analysts, they are part of the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army.
Вороніж (відео викладене 12.02.2022) pic.twitter.com/vCAyroINQZ
– 4emberlen (@4emberlen) February 12, 2022
And seen from other angles:
@raskolbas19810
#Украина #путин #война #зеленский
♬ оригинальный звук - user7573595603740
It looks like another huge amount of Russian military equipment arrived at the Maslovka train station in Voronezh if that is a recent video..pic.twitter.com/CvIXw5CnPP
– marqs (@MarQs__) February 11, 2022
CNN geolocated these clips to this location:
Tanks near the train station
Helicopters near Belgorod
In recent days, more videos on social media have shown the arrival of helicopters near the Ukrainian border.
They could offer important protection to ground troops in the event of an offensive.
These were filmed near Belgorod:
Belgorod pic.twitter.com/d8thAp4O3c
— IgorGirkin (@GirkinGirkin) February 13, 2022
The Russian deployment includes tanks, infantry fighting vehicles known as BMPs, and self-propelled artillery, as seen here on a train outside Belgorod:
Belgorod pic.twitter.com/Y6oZU6l8pw
— IgorGirkin (@GirkinGirkin) February 12, 2022
Much of the forces travel south of the city of Kursk.
CNN geolocated this video, which appears to have been shot on Saturday.
@dy0uv271wxdm
♬ MALINOVAYA LADA - GAYAZOV$ BROTHER$
Missile and artillery support
Michael Kofman, a Russia analyst at CNA, a Virginia-based nonprofit, notes that Kursk units (such as the 6th Combined Arms Army) "seem to be moving up to Belgorod with district-level artillery support." .
He says that the 1st Guards Tank Army has begun to move as well, "allegedly to a final staging area."
Of particular concern is the movement of Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile convoys, which appears to have increased in recent weeks in various parts of western Russia.
Курская обл pic.twitter.com/wMlrqmWJgb
— IgorGirkin (@GirkinGirkin) February 11, 2022
@dmitrymartynov25
#2022 #военнаятехнитка #врекомендации
♬ Change My Mind - Clutch
8 Iskander-M 9T250 transloaders and 15 or more KamAZ trucks with trailers carrying missiles apparently in Belgorod.
This indicates they're arriving near the border with plenty of missiles.
https://t.co/KfDtoTfAzE
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) February 13, 2022
If a conflict were to break out, these missiles would likely be used to attack fixed Ukrainian positions, such as command and control centers.
They have a range of up to 402 km and have been seen in recent satellite images.
Rocket launchers near the border
Russian and Belarusian troops began major joint exercises near the Polish border last week, but some Russian forces are moving many kilometers from where the exercises are taking place and have taken up positions near where Ukraine's borders meet. , Russia and Belarus.
CNN geolocated this convoy, which includes several rocket launchers, at a point about 24 kilometers north of the Ukrainian border.
A convoy of Russian military equipment was seen in Naroulya (Gomel Region, Belarus) today (12.02), 20 km from the border with Ukraine.
There are Kamaz & Ural trucks, “Grad” multiple rocket launchers.
It is noteworthy that the equipment was moving towards the border with Ukraine.
pic.twitter.com/er2xRyt0cB
— MotolkoHelp (@MotolkoHelp) February 12, 2022
Russian weapons, and ships, continue to approach the Ukrainian border.
The places where the team had been prepositioned more than 161 km from the border have been progressively emptying as the units have advanced.
Will Russia withdraw its troops from Belarus?
1:17
There are Russian units within a few kilometers of Ukraine from the Sea of Azov, along the Ukrainian border and into Belarus.
"Russia's current military buildup near Ukraine is unprecedented," tweeted Rob Lee of the Department of War Studies at King's College London.
"This is not like the previous war scares or the buildup in the spring [of 2021]. The amount of Russian military air, ground, and naval power near Ukraine is now quantitatively much greater."
Although the team seems to have reunited, it is unknown where and when he will move next.
RussiaUkraine
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