Justin Yifu Lin's Time-honored Remarks Amid the Spread of Negative Sentiment About China's Economy

Since the second half of 2021, I have often heard people I know worry about the current situation of China's economy on different occasions.

Many people worry that the good days of rapid economic development since China's reform and opening up for more than 40 years may be gone forever, and they believe that each subsequent year may be the most severe year for economic development in the past 40 years.

A paragraph written by a colleague of the author in an article at the end of 2021 can quite reflect the current psychological feelings of many people in Chinese society about the economic situation and future: "A few years ago, I was assigned by the company to exchange in Hong Kong, Hong Kong youth made some exchanges. At that time, Hong Kong experienced a low economic growth rate for many years, and people’s salary level was stagnant for many years. Many people, especially young people, were generally pessimistic about the future. On the contrary, the mainland, despite the increasing pressure of economic transformation, Although the economic growth rate is still considerable every year, and the wage level is basically rising every year, everyone's expectations for the future were very optimistic at that time, and they believed that the difficulties in the economic situation were temporary. However, only It has been difficult for many of us to hold that optimism for years."

Not long ago, Hu Xijin, the former editor-in-chief of China's "Global Times", who has retired, wrote an article on his personal WeChat account "More and more people have the expectation and anxiety of the economic downturn, which is very worthy of attention". , said: "Lao Hu has heard more and more people around recently expressing their anxiety that China's economy is weak and that real growth this year may fall below 5% or even lower. I think this lack of confidence is a serious problem. Obviously corresponding to some real problems in economic work. I would say that

." He suggested that China "

."

For some time now, negative sentiment towards the Chinese economy has been spreading, and this phenomenon deserves the attention of the Chinese society and government.

(Xinhua News Agency)

Hu Xijin's reminder is necessary.

At present, China's economic development is indeed facing difficulties and risks. Negative sentiments about the economic situation at the social level are still spreading, which will inevitably weaken the effectiveness of the government's macro-control.

This is why China's economic management department has started to adjust policies and released positive signals in the past period, but the market reaction is not optimistic.

At the end of last year, China's Central Economic Work Conference stated: "We

. This shows that the difficulties faced by the Chinese economy and the lack of confidence at the social level can be foreseen. The key issue now is how to effectively reverse the public's weakened expectations as soon as possible, and be alert to concerns about the Chinese economy turning into "self-fulfilling". prophecy".

Frankly speaking, the predicament facing China's economy today is more a sign of a significant slowdown in growth compared to previous years, rather than a problem with economic fundamentals.

fundamentals are still improving today, and the development potential is still very large.

China's economic miracle since the reform and opening up was by no means accidental or formed in a day or two. It must be the result of the combined action of various factors, with sound fundamentals.

Because of this, Professor Yao Yang, Dean of the National School of Development of Peking University, said in his speech at the annual meeting of NetEase Economists, "I have confidence in China's future economic growth." The reason for the slowdown in economic growth in the second half of last year , mainly due to policies, including repeated epidemic prevention policies, real estate control policies, power shortages and emission reduction policies. , and the policy is relatively loose, so there should be no big problem returning to the potential growth rate.”

Coincidentally, recently, Professor Justin Yifu Lin, a well-known economist in China, Honorary Dean of the National School of Development of Peking University, and Dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics of Peking University, has further discussed the trend of China's economy in 2022 and for a long time in the future.

Professor Justin Yifu Lin is an economist with a strong will to serve the country and a sense of literacy for the country and the country. He used to be the chief economist of the World Bank. Over the past 30 years, he has repeatedly acted against the backdrop of the prevalence of the "China Collapse Theory" internationally. China's economic development endorsements and suggestions, and bold predictions of China's economic trends in the 1990s, were later confirmed, admirable.

Different from the view that the Chinese society in recent years believes that the Chinese economy cannot and should no longer aim for rapid growth,

In Professor Lin's view, whether it is to achieve China's second centenary goal, or to successfully resolve the containment pressure from the United States and establish a new and stable global political and economic structure, "it is all related to whether China can maintain a relatively good economic growth. Speed ​​has a lot to do with it."

Regarding the second centenary goal, Professor Lin said: "To achieve the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, per capita GDP must catch up. Development is the foundation. Without development, any goal will be difficult to achieve."

Regarding coping with the challenges of the United States, Professor Lin said: "When will the world pattern enter a new period of stability? I think it will wait until China's per capita GDP reaches about 50% of that of the United States. When my country's per capita GDP reaches 50% of that of the United States, my country's The developed regions of China—Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and the five provinces of Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong on the eastern coast, with a combined population of a little more than 400 million, the per capita GDP can be comparable to the per capita GDP of the United States, and the per capita GDP represents the average labor productivity. Level, average industry and technology level, the United States will lose the technological advantage that is choking my country. At the same time, China’s population is four times that of the United States, and the economic scale is twice that of the United States. No matter how unhappy the United States is, it will not change this fact.”

As said, once China can surpass the United States in terms of economic strength, average labor productivity, average industry and technology, the existing global political and economic structure dominated by the United States will lose its economic foundation and will inevitably be unsustainable, while China has The most solid and powerful economic foundation for a more equitable global political and economic system that has been advocated for many years.

By studying the history of Germany, Japan, and South Korea catching up with the United States in per capita GDP, Professor Lin believes that China still has the advantage of latecomers and the advantage of "changing lanes to overtake". If it can firmly establish that "development is the foundation and key to solving all problems" , according to the high-quality development of comparative advantages, the future development potential will be great.

He said: "If these advantages are used well, I believe that there is an average annual growth potential of 8% by 2035. As long as we work hard, we can achieve an actual growth of about 6% per year; from 2035 to 2050, we will rely on later Taking advantage of the driver advantage and the advantage of changing lanes and overtaking, there should be a growth potential of 6% per year, and as long as we work hard, we can achieve an actual growth of about 4% per year.”

"Economic work is related to the overall situation of the country, and it is the basic work for political stability, social and cultural development, and people's backing." "Anyone who has a little life experience and has experienced the hardships of reality can deeply understand this."

Facing the current difficulties in China's economic development and the pervasive negative emotions in the society, Professor Justin Yifu Lin put aside his ideology, based on realism, starting from understanding China's political and economic reality, exploring the potential and inherent advantages of China's economy, and making suggestions with the aim of hoping China gets rid of the predicament and overcomes the challenges of the United States, so as to achieve the second centenary goal and let the people generally live a prosperous life.

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