Possible war in Ukraine: That would be the consequences for Germany

Created: 02/16/2022, 09:13

By: Sven Hauberg

What consequences a Russian invasion of Ukraine would have on the German gas market is still open.

© Stefan Sauer/picture alliance/dpa/dpa central image

Are gas prices rising?

Are Ukrainian refugees coming to Germany?

A possible Russian invasion of Ukraine would also have noticeable effects on Germany.

Berlin - Whether Russia really invades Ukraine is still an open question.

What is clear, however, is that an invasion would have devastating consequences.

According to an analysis by US military and intelligence experts, a Russian attack could kill up to 50,000 Ukrainian civilians, as well as up to 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers and 10,000 members of the Russian army.

And a Russian aggression would also have clearly noticeable effects on Germany.

“We are not far from Ukraine.

And to believe that we are sitting here in warm Germany and that a war is breaking out somewhere in the middle of Europe and that we don't notice - that would be naïve," said the defense policy spokeswoman for the FDP parliamentary group, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, recently on Deutschlandfunk .

According to reports from the

and

, the US experts named not only expect many fatalities on both sides;

a Russian invasion would also lead to a huge flight from Ukraine.

The US analysts expect up to five million refugees.

Many of them would leave the country for Poland, so the assumption.

The government there said on Sunday (February 13) that it was preparing to take in refugees from Ukraine.

"This also includes the preparations of the heads of the regional administrations with a view to a possible influx of refugees from Ukraine who could seek protection in our country because of a possible conflict," Poland's Interior Minister Mariusz Kaminski wrote on Twitter.

Ukraine crisis: Federal government has “no indications of refugee movements”

Ukrainian citizens are normally allowed to enter Poland and the Schengen area for tourism purposes without a visa for up to 90 days - including Germany.

However, the German government does not currently anticipate that Ukrainian refugees will be able to seek refuge in this country in the near future.

Currently there are "no indications of refugee movements", said a spokesman on Monday.

However, the situation is being monitored very closely and there is close coordination within the federal government and with the EU Commission on how to proceed “should there be migration movements from Ukraine”.

According to the dpa news agency, this also includes initial considerations of involving civil protection resources.

According to the Ukrainian embassy in Berlin, around 30,000 people of Ukrainian origin live in Germany as of 2019.

Many of them have been demonstrating in the past few days and weeks for greater support from the German government for Ukraine.

For example, at the weekend at the Brandenburg Gate, around 200 people asked Olaf Scholz to do more than just send 5,000 military helmets to Kiev: "The economic support that Germany gave Ukraine was a great help, but now we need other means ", Deutsche Welle quotes a 52-year-old Ukrainian who has lived in Germany for 30 years.

"As we say in Ukraine: You need a spoon for lunch."

Demonstrators in Berlin at the end of January are demanding German support for Ukraine.

© Mike Schmidt/Imago

Ukraine crisis: financial support instead of arms deliveries

At the moment, however, it does not look as if Germany will support Ukraine with armaments;

Above all, the delivery of lethal weapons is categorically rejected by the federal government.

Kiev, on the other hand, wants anti-aircraft missile systems, anti-drone guns and ammunition, among other things.

Although there is "one or the other" on the Ukrainian wish list, which "you can take a closer look at," the AFP news agency recently quoted Berlin government circles as saying;

But it is also the case that “there is nothing left in the Bundeswehr at the moment.

There aren't thousands of night vision devices lying around that aren't needed."

Instead, the federal government has agreed to provide more financial support to Ukraine.

In the foreseeable future, Berlin wants to pay out 150 million euros to Ukraine, part of a 500 million euro credit line that was promised after the Russian invasion of the east of the country.

With a total of almost two billion euros, the Federal Republic is already Ukraine's largest bilateral donor.

Ukraine crisis: will gas prices rise in Germany?

It is currently unclear what sanctions Germany could take in the event of an invasion of Russia.

Chancellor Scholz in particular recently pursued the strategy of keeping the Russian side in the dark as far as possible about any German punitive measures.

The United States, on the other hand, has repeatedly demanded that the controversial Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea pipeline should not be put into operation if Russia invades Ukraine.

This raises concerns in Germany that the gas supply could be at risk if the conflict escalates.

According to FDP politician Strack-Zimmermann, sanctions against Russia could actually have an economic impact on Germany.

"You could also notice that gas prices are rising," she said on Deutschlandfunk.

Thomas Jäger, Chair of International Politics and Foreign Policy, however, puts it into perspective: "It is difficult to predict how Russia would react to the sanctions, whether it would stop gas supplies, for example, but it is possible," said the professor from the University of Cologne in an interview with

.

However, Jäger points out another aspect: “In any case, Russia would step up its propaganda in the West and persuade the already highly active lobbyists in politics and business to become more involved.

From the French right to the German left, the propaganda pressure in the democratic societies of Europe would increase.”