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The Geological Survey warns: "The Beit She'an Valley is waking up, it is worrying" | Israel today

2022-02-16T11:49:57.916Z


The sequence of tremors over the past month raises the question: Is this just a trailer for the next big noise? • Prof. Zohar Gvirtzman of the Geological Survey clarifies that there is no way to link recent noises to a strong earthquake, but warns: "Strong noise in the Beit She'an area may affect most of the population in Israel" • Also: From 1068 to 1927 - Israel's earthquake history


The four earthquakes that occurred in the past month raise many questions about Israel's readiness for similar events.

In a conversation with the director of the Geological Survey, Prof. Zohar Gvirtsman, we tried to understand whether it is possible that the sequence of earthquakes is only a preliminary event for a louder noise to come.

And of course, the experts' scenario: What will be the result after a more significant earthquake?

"There is no way to link these noises to the stronger earthquake that is expected in the country," explains Prof. Gvirtsman.

"We know that every hundred years, more or less, strong earthquakes of over 6 degrees occur in the country."

Prof. Gvirtsman mentions the famous earthquakes of 1927, 1837 and 1757.

"Israel is now within the predicted range of a strong earthquake, of the kind that can occur at any point in the Syrian-African rift that lies to us as an eastern border."

Despite the alarming forecasts, the director of the Geological Survey emphasizes that these are only statistics.

"The loud noise can come once in 150 years or once in 50 years - we can not know," he said.

Damage to the Tiberias earthquake, Photo: Gil Eliyahu-Gini

However, Prof. Gvirtzman, expresses concern regarding the current area of ​​the area where the earthquakes were felt in the past month - the Beit She'an Valley and the Kinneret Valley.

"This cell has been quiet for decades and now it has awakened. Because everyone who walks in the area sees the ruins of the Roman Beit She'an, which was finally destroyed in 749. You can see there the large and powerful Roman pillars that just crashed to the floor."

According to Prof. Gvirtzman, loud noise in the Beit She'an area may affect the majority of the population in the country, in contrast to noise that will occur in a more remote area such as the Arava, which will affect less.

"The risk of harm increases as more people within the range," explains Prof. Gvirtsman.

"But unfortunately we have no way of knowing. What we do have is to build structures before the standard and in places where there are old structures - strengthen them or demolish and build again."

History of earthquakes

Against the background of Prof. Gvirtzman's remarks, we went back to the most significant earthquakes in the Land of Israel, before the establishment of the state.

July 1927 -

An earthquake in the northern Dead Sea.

The cities of Jerusalem, Jericho, Ramla, Lod, Tiberias and Nablus are severely affected.

The quake left 285 dead and 940 injured.

In Jerusalem, ten people were killed and 25 injured.

January 1837 -

A very severe earthquake in the north of the country killed about 28% of the residents of Tiberias, some of them hit by huge tsunami waves that rose from the Sea of ​​Galilee.

Safed was completely destroyed.

October 1759 -

A magnitude 6.3 earthquake shakes the Jordan Valley, killing tens of thousands of people.

Safed is destroyed and Nazareth and Tiberias are damaged.

Tsunami waves in the Sea of ​​Galilee, huge waves hit Acre and cover the streets with water at a depth of two meters.

January 1546 -

Strong earthquake in the Jordan Valley.

The Jordan River stopped flowing for two whole days, the tsunami waves in the coastal cities from Acre to Gaza, and the huge waves in the Dead Sea.

1201 -

A very strong earthquake in the Jordan Valley, Nablus is destroyed, thousands of victims, huge tsunami waves hit Acre and the coastal cities.

1068 -

Strong earthquake in the center of the Mediterranean near the coast, 15,000 killed in Ramla, and damage to coastal cities.

The rate of earthquakes in the country has been reported continuously since the Muslim occupation of the country, with the noise mentioned since the beginning of the occupation being in 749 - Beit She'an was destroyed by the same earthquake.

However, earthquakes are also mentioned in the Bible and in the sages' literature, when the most severe earthquake was during the reign of King Uzziah, so Jerusalem was hit very hard.

The alarming scenario: 7,000 killed in the next loud noise

In anticipation of the next quake, there seems to be a lot of work to do to protect tens of thousands of homes that have been built in the past and do not meet the appropriate standard.

A report by the Knesset Research Center published at the end of last month states that "according to estimates by the Ministry of Construction and Housing, there are about 80,000 buildings of three floors or more in need of reinforcement, including about 810,000 apartments." In preparation for an earthquake, in the event of a strong earthquake, in addition to injuries, some 28,600 buildings may be destroyed or severely damaged, an additional 290,000 buildings will experience damage of between 5% -20% of the value of the building.

Buildings in Tiberias after this month's earthquake, Photo: Gil Eliyahu-Jin

Furthermore, in areas prone to earthquakes, 1,871 buildings with 36,758 apartments require reinforcement against earthquakes.

Despite this, during the years of implementation of the TMA 38 plan, only 1,337 buildings were strengthened and protected from earthquakes, estimated at 1.7% of the buildings that require it throughout the country. In addition, the State Comptroller's report from 2019 stated that in the event of a severe earthquake, the loss of life in Israel could reach 7,000 people, with hundreds of thousands left without a sufficient roof.

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Source: israelhayom

All news articles on 2022-02-16

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