Political scientist and far-right specialist, Jean-Yves Camus, associate researcher at Iris, directs the Observatory of Political Radicalities of the Jean-Jaurès Foundation.
He observes that Marine Le Pen retains an “electoral base” and “loyal activists whom she can raise to responsibility”.
This rallying war between Marine Le Pen and Éric Zemmour, is it déjà vu?
JEAN-YVES CAMUS.
Yes,
insofar as the appearance of major competitors is as old as the history of the National Front itself.
In October 1972, the FN was created.
In 1974, Jean-Marie Le Pen took power within the movement and the New Forces party was created and competed with him.
In 1981, the first departures were organized with the French Nationalist Party.
In 1998-1999, there was the megrétist split.
In 2009, the creation by Carl Lang of the Parti de la France… But the rallying is done in both directions because there are also people who, coming from the classic right, joined the FN for a very long time.
The first FN mayor was Charles de Chambrun, former secretary of state to Georges Pompidou, a centrist, who in 1989 took over the town hall of Saint-Gilles, in the Gard.
Are these rallies convertible into votes?
These rallies do not automatically create votes.
It's a little music that nevertheless undermines the morale of the troops a little, but at the same time, morale is not about to collapse if Marine Le Pen remains so high in the estimates.
Because it has a base.
Éric Zemmour having passed Valérie Pécresse in some polls, we will have to see if he also manages to pass Marine Le Pen.
It can all move.
But, clarification: we are within the margin of error of the polls for these three candidates: Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour and Valérie Pécresse.
More generally, it is a transfer window that does not interest voters.
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Do they really weaken Marine Le Pen?
It's never nice to see people leave.
This forces you, as a candidate, to deal with these subjects instead of unfolding your arguments.
It is very clear that instead of holding a press conference to explain what opposed him to Nicolas Bay, Marine Le Pen would have preferred to make a trip to the field.
But if she takes the lead, she can turn that weakness into a strength.
For example, I see that Jordan Bardella is faultless in this presidential campaign: measured expression, some very strong spades all the same... He embodies a new generation that holds up well.
So Marine Le Pen can take advantage of the opportunity to raise the responsibilities of a whole series of activists who are loyal to her and who will replace those who have left without too many problems.